Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Bader vs. Nogueira 2’

Welterweights

Sergio Moraes (10-2-1) vs. Zak Ottow (14-3): Ottow made his UFC debut on short notice and defied the odds to take a win over veteran Joshua Burkman. Now he looks to repeat the deed, replacing Michael Graves while taking on the wily Moraes on a little over a month’s notice. That should be more than enough time for Ottow to get into shape. Ottow is solid in just about every range and phase. Top control has been the bread and butter of most of his career, but against Burkman, he showed off some really great, economical striking, highlighted by counter right hands and hard kicks to the legs and body. Moraes is not as well-schooled as Burkman on the feet, though he did show in his fight with Luan Chagas that he can make some smart tactical adjustments to account for this deficiency. His strongest suit, however, has to be his jiu-jitsu. Moraes is a two-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, and his top game has served him well in the UFC -- when he can get his opponent down. Moraes is physically strong and a decent wrestler but he will struggle to keep Ottow on his back, and it is for that reason that I favor the man from Milwaukee. Ottow by unanimous decision is the pick.

Middleweights

Cezar Ferreira (10-5) vs. Jack Hermansson (14-2): For the sake of fairness, I have to say up front that I love Hermansson. His style represents everything I adore about the oddball middleweight division and a few things that I like in fighters in general. Hermansson made his UFC debut against Scott Askham, and while the fight was not easy, he succeeded in beating what was probably the best version of Askham we have seen. Moreover, he did most of his best work in Askham’s best ranges: long range and the clinch. He accomplished all of this using constant movement and clever footwork, combined with a well-rounded array of strikes, often thrown in beguiling combinations. Hermansson was equally crafty in the clinch, using offensive wrestling to turn tough positions to his advantage and punishing Askham when he attempted to shoot, a la women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Ferreira’s only real path to victory in this fight is to take down Hermansson down and school him on the canvas. However, while one of Hermansson’s losses was by submission, he has made great strides in grappling technique over the years, and as noted above, his takedown defense comes packaged with punitive clinch striking. Unfortunately for Ferreira, he will have to pit his suspect chin against a respectable puncher with great accuracy. The pick is Hermansson by first-round TKO.

Light Heavyweights

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-3-1) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (18-4): This one will be crazy. Lima is a powerhouse striker with a well-rounded muay Thai game and some top-position jiu-jitsu to back it up. He is equally dangerous at long range and in the clinch and boasts an impressive 56 percent knockout rate, with an additional 17 percent of his wins by submission. He faces promotional newcomer and fellow finisher Atigulov, and there is almost no way the result will be a boring or even mediocre fight. Antigulov is every bit as aggressive as Lima, but the vast majority of his 18 wins are submissions, owing to his distinctly Sambo-esque style of sprint grappling. In this matchup, it makes sense to favor the more technical striker. Antigulov’s aggressive grappling is also quite taxing, and while neither man has done particularly well in bouts lasting longer than a round, Antigulov becomes exceedingly hittable when he tires. The pick is Lima by second-round knockout.

Bantamweights

Johnny Eduardo (27-10) vs. Manny Gamburyan (15-9): With Eduardo and Gamburyan far from their last hopes of a title shot, this fight makes perfect sense as an intriguing matchup between two talented veterans with very different styles. Eduardo, a sometimes-instructor of muay Thai at Nova Uniao, is a striker, accurate and powerful with both punches and kicks, and he possesses the top position-oriented jiu-jitsu for which Nova Uniao is renowned. With that skill set, Eduardo certainly could beat Gamburyan, though I do not think he will. We can look back to Eduardo’s fight with Aljamain Sterling for the reason. The Brazilian naturally gives away first rounds while he gauges and measures his opponents, but rarely does he show a serious uptick in volume even after that. Per FightMetric, Eduardo lands only 2.14 significant strikes per minute. That number is actually the same for Gamburyan, but it is the Armenian-American’s takedown game that makes the difference. Gamburyan may not be as slick as Sterling, but he is even more relentless in his pursuit of the takedown, shooting almost 10 times for every 15 minutes of fight time. Eduardo has it in him to land a big shot, but volume is an indispensable friend for a fighter whose best shot at victory is in the standup. The pick is Gamburyan by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (9-2) vs. Christian Colombo (8-1-1): This may look at first like just another oddball heavyweight fight with little no divisional relevance, but Oliveira, at just 23 years old, could in fact be a prospect in the making. His striking technique was questionable at best when he dropped his UFC debut to Francis Ngannou, but there is no shame in losing to the division’s best up-and-comer; and in Oliveira’s next fight, he not only showed slightly better form and considerably better confidence but pressed a relentless pace many heavyweights cannot match. Colombo does not have problems with pace, but he does have problems with takedown defense. Like Oliveira, Colombo benefitted from a poorly conditioned opponent in his last fight -- in truth, Jarjis Danho was lucky to escape with a draw -- but he did not benefit from any surplus of takedown defense. Colombo is certainly a dangerous striker, and his knees in particular should pose a real threat to the aggressive striking and wrestling of Oliveira. However, if he fails to knock out the durable Brazilian, he will find himself on his back succumbing to a massive heavyweight with a superior jiu-jitsu game. The pick is Oliveira by third-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Pedro Munhoz (12-2) vs. Justin Scoggins (11-2): Scoggins failed to make weight for his last scheduled fight and made the admirable decision to move up to bantamweight as a result. Hopefully, that will solve his weight issues for good. In Munhoz, Scoggins finds a tough but not insurmountable threat for his divisional debut. Munhoz announced himself as promising contender via a surprisingly competitive performance against Raphael Assuncao in his UFC debut, but since then, he has failed to deliver on that promise. This is not to say Munhoz has been an outright failure. Certainly, his close loss to Jimmie Rivera and beautiful submission of Russell Doane testify to his toughness and skill, but he has had to rely on durability and aggression to overcome opponents who otherwise seem to have a marked skill advantage over him, most notably in the striking. Though Scoggins is the man moving up for this fight, he does have advantages in reach and height, along with the style to make them work against Munhoz’s stocky, straightforward muay Thai. Moreover, Scoggins is a fantastic scrambler and getting better with every fight -- something he displayed in his lopsided victory over fellow prospect Ray Borg. Munhoz’s grit, power and submission savvy make him a serious threat, but Scoggins is well-equipped to keep the distance and win on points. Scoggins by unanimous decision is the pick.

Light Heavyweights

Francimar Barroso (18-5) vs. Darren Stewart (7-0): Stewart is a promising prospect, a veritable baby in the light heavyweight division at just 25 years old, and I am excited for the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship veteran’s UFC debut. The unglamorous Barroso will not be a walk in the park, however, and represents Stewart’s toughest test to date. Stewart’s “Dentist” moniker may imply a knockout striker, but the Brit is really a grinder at heart. The problem with his style is the same one faced by many grinders: Stewart presses so relentlessly for takedowns that he often puts as much of a dent in his own stamina as he does his opponent’s. It is a taxing style, made all the more difficult by the fact that Stewart does not yet have enough striking craft to set up his takedowns, which means his opponents get a chance to defend, forcing him to work twice as hard to finish the shot; and where Stewart grinds away, Barroso chugs along. He tends to pick a pace and stick with it. That reliability is a great one to have against an inexperienced prospect, even if Barroso’s tempo rarely surpasses that of a low simmer. Barroso is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, a decent wrestler, a powerful if unimaginative striker and, most importantly, very physically strong. It would be good to see Stewart enter the big show with a win, but the pick is Barroso by unanimous decision.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.