Preview: UFC Fight Night 172 ‘Overeem vs. Harris’
Tom FeelyMay 15, 2020
Welterweights
Miguel Baeza (8-0, -200) vs. Matt Brown (22-16, +170): Brown teased retirement after obliterating Diego Sanchez near the end of 2017, but he quickly reversed that decision. A subsequent knee injury meant it was two years before the “Immortal” one returned to the Octagon, but once he did, he picked up right where he left off, scoring a finish of Ben Saunders at UFC 245. Brown was supposed to return to his home state of Ohio to face Baeza in March, but because of the global pandemic, the fight takes place here instead. A Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Baeza is a decent enough prospect. He is tall and athletic and has shown some solid composure during his two fights under the Zuffa banner. However, he is still quite unproven and likes to dictate the terms of the fight and keep things at a slow pace—something that will be an issue against Brown, who is the best opponent Baeza has ever faced and an opponent who should immediately start bringing the fight. In an overall sense, there is some concern that Baeza is the first young and spry athlete Brown has faced in a few years, but this is latter’s fight to lose. The pick is Brown via second-round stoppage.
Middleweights
Kevin Holland (16-5, -110) vs. Anthony Hernandez (7-1, -110): Holland is creative to a fault, and while he has plenty of physical tools and some impressive skills, there is no rhyme or reason to how he applies any of them. Within the first minute of his UFC career, for instance, he attempted a flying omoplata against Thiago Santos. Sometimes it is unclear if Holland is even aware of what he is doing—he memorably wrestled with Gerald Meerschaert for 15 minutes, then complained that the Roufusport rep kept trying to take him down—but it was a shockingly successful approach until he ran into Brendan Allen in October. Holland looks to rebound against Hernandez, a similarly formless fighter focused on making something happen rather than thinking about what his opponent will throw back. That got him blasted against Markus Perez, but Hernandez managed to overwhelm the counter-heavy game of Jun Yong Park to score his first UFC win in August. This is essentially a coinflip, as both men are just going to try whatever comes to mind until someone gets finished, but Holland has the better resume and has shown more composure under pressure. The pick is Holland via second-round submission.
Featherweights
Darren Elkins (24-8, -120) vs. Nate Landwehr (13-3, +100): This should be madness. For most of Elkins’ career, he has looked to make things a grind and wear down his opponents, but he has become an exciting fighter over the last few years. Of course, Elkins has been an unwilling participant in some regards. Part of the fun of an Elkins bout is watching the amount of abuse he takes on route to an improbable comeback against the likes of Mirsad Bektic and Michael Johnson. Elkins has actually done a solid job of rounding out his game—he is a much more effective striker now than he ever has been—but it has not come with improved results. A six-fight winning streak has given way to three straight losses, even if there is no shame in dropping fights to Alexander Volkanovski, Ricardo Lamas and Ryan Hall. “The Damage” looks to bounce back against Landwehr, who should be able to show off why hardcore fans were so excited that he made his way to the UFC. Landwehr enjoyed a ton of success in Russia but seemingly did so by the skin of his teeth. He could be taken down and controlled early but would inevitably keep fighting back to either score a late knockout or steal a decision. Landwehr looked to be on his way to repeating that trick in his UFC debut against Herbert Burns, as the Hard Knocks 365 standout controlled him for the first few minutes of the bout. However, as soon as Landwehr got a chance to open up and score some offense, he charged directly into a knee that knocked him senseless. Elkins should be able to win this. Again, Landwehr cedes control early, but attempting to outlast Elkins has never been a recipe for success. There is a chance that this is where years of abuse finally catch up to Elkins, but otherwise this looks like Landwehr consistently fighting back in a game but losing effort. The pick is Elkins via decision.
Women’s Flyweights
Cortney Casey (8-7, -150) vs. Mara Romero Borella (12-7, +130): Casey moves up to flyweight in a bit of an odd move. She was gigantic for strawweight, so it is understandable that she would want to avoid such a difficult weight cut, but she never seemed to have any trouble on the scale and a huge part of her success was the size and power she had against smaller opponents. On the plus side, she will get some immediate feedback about whether or not this will work when she faces Borella. Italy’s Borella can do a little bit of everything and puts some power behind everything she does, but she often runs the risk of being one-note and does not set much of a pace. Casey’s usually reckless style may just run her into a brick wall here, but unless Borella is physically dominant to a surprising degree, “Cast Iron Cortney” should be able to win this simply on pace and volume. This may not be that pretty to watch, but the pick is Casey via decision.
Heavyweights
Don'Tale Mayes (7-3, -120) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (7-0, +100): Two Dana Contender Series graduates collide for what should be an entertaining heavyweight clash. Mayes appeared on every season of DWCS and finally earned his UFC contract in 2019. While his UFC debut against Ciryl Gane did not go as planned, there are some things to like. Mayes is surprisingly nimble for such a gigantic man and throws an entertaining variety of flashy strikes. There is nothing really holding his game together besides his physical gifts, but given that this is at heavyweight, that should be more than enough to get by and provide some highlight-reel moments. He takes on the debuting Nascimento, who is firmly on the other side of the spectrum. He does not cut an imposing figure but looked good in his DWCS bout, quickly taking things to the clinch, scoring a takedown and latching on an arm-triangle choke. This is pure striker-versus-grappler stuff that should be over quickly, and Mayes’ physical advantages should allow him to emerge victorious. The pick is Mayes via first-round knockout.