Preview: UFC Fight Night 172 ‘Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2’

Light Heavyweights

Roman Dolidze (6-0, -185) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (8-2, +160): Ibragimov had a solid resume heading into his UFC debut, but he has been a lot less than the sum of his parts inside the Octagon. On paper, the Russian is a control wrestler with some knockout power, but that has not gotten him anywhere in his last two fights. Da Un Jung survived an early blitz and tapped a gassed Ibragimov, while Ed Herman laid bare how much of Ibragimov’s grappling game depended on strength rather than technique. He gets a step back here against a Georgian newcomer in Dolidze, who has some knockout power but does not really seem to bring much else to the table. The pick here essentially depends on how much—or little—trust Ibragimov merits at this point since this is another fight that he should be able to control on paper. If Ibragimov tires himself out, then Dolidze could easily score a finish, but the pick is for Ibragimov to grind out a decision that will still probably be more difficult than it needs to be.

Featherweights

Grant Dawson (15-1, -230) vs. Nad Narimani (12-3, +190): It took Dawson over a year to get into the Octagon after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series—he was flagged due to the same “pulsing” issue that plagued Jon Jones—but he has proven to be worth the wait over his last few bouts. Dawson is an aggressive grappler to the point of being overconfident, but that has not come back to bite him just yet. Thus far, his major struggles have been on the scale, as Dawson badly missed weight for his last fight and had another scrapped due to a weight cut issue. England’s Narimani is an interesting next test for Dawson, as he made his name in Cage Warriors as a fighter who sent back top prospects. Narimani can do a little bit of everything, but his fights tends to hinge on whether or not he can control the wrestling game; he looked good against natural bantamweights Khalid Taha and Anderson dos Santos, but Mike Grundy managed to take the advantage on the mat and blow apart Narimani’s game as a result. Dawson may have some struggles in this 150-pound catchweight tilt, but he should be able to get the better of things overall since he is the larger and more athletic fighter. The pick is Dawson via decision.

Lightweights

Joseph Duffy (16-4, -350) vs. Joel Alvarez (16-2, +290): A few years ago, Duffy looked poised to be the UFC’s next Irish star. Even beyond his status as the last man to beat Conor McGregor before “Mystic Mac” entered the UFC, Duffy showed off a strong combination of boxing and submissions in some dynamic performances. A 2016 loss to Dustin Poirier looked like a speed bump after Duffy rebounded with two more wins, but one-sided losses to James Vick and Marc Diakiese have left the Irishman’s resume looking a bit thin in retrospect. He should be able to rebound here against Spain’s Alvarez, who was aggressive against overmatched competition on the regional scene but quickly went into his shell in his UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov. Even in his last fight, a win over Danilo Belluardo, Alvarez showed little outside of a sudden reversal on the mat that led to a stoppage shortly thereafter. Duffy’s pressure should cow Alvarez and make this all one-way traffic. The pick is Duffy via first-round knockout.

Bantamweights

Montel Jackson (9-1, -210) vs. Brett Johns (16-2, +175): The first Welshman to step foot inside of the Octagon, Johns came to the UFC with some rightful hype. “The Pikey” figured to make an impact with his strong wrestling game, and indeed, Johns quickly shot up the bantamweight ranks with three dominant wins, including a beautiful calf slicer submission of Joe Soto that capped his 2017 campaign. Johns then tried to make the leap to contender status, and unfortunately, things went about as poorly as possible. Admittedly, Johns drew two terrible style matchups with Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munhoz. Johns is at his best when he can play his striking and his takedowns off of each other, and against two strong grapplers who did not fear his wrestling threat, he got stuck on the feet and dominated as a result. Johns showed a ridiculous amount of heart in the beating he took from Munhoz, but that kept him out of action for roughly a year and a half, until he defeated Tony Gravely in January. Johns looks to make it two straight against Jackson, who is a top prospect to watch, even if he is somewhat under the radar in a deep bantamweight division. Jackson was signed about a year into his pro career, so while he is still learning on the job, he has shown a ton of talent thus far. Beyond his physical gifts—Jackson is tall and long for the division, with some gigantic hands—he has obviously improved from fight to fight. After a shockingly quick win over Brian Kelleher at the end of 2018, the UFC gave Jackson a few steps back to try and develop, but he showed out in his last two fights and gets a big move back up the ladder here. This all comes down to Jackson’s takedown defense. If he has shored it up and taken another jump in between fights, he can blow apart Johns’ style and win this rather easily on the feet. However, based off his previous fights, Jackson is not quite there yet. On his current trajectory, Jackson looks better equipped to win this fight in a year or two, but for now, the pick is Johns via decision.

Flyweights

Amir Albazi (12-1, -180) vs. Malcolm Gordon (12-3, +155): This bout between debuting flyweights is a sneaky highlight of this card. A Bellator MMA and Brave Combat Federation vet, Albazi is an interesting talent who should help bolster the UFC’s ranks at 125 pounds. While he tends to finish his fights via submission, he has shown a solid power striking game to set it all up. Overall, “The Prince” has the type of well-rounded skills that should make him a going concern for years to come, even if there are some worries that he may not get over the hump as a title contender. In his lone loss, he looked thrown off by the constant pressure of UFC veteran Jose Torres, even if he put in a game effort in defeat. At 26, Albazi is young enough to improve, but he has also been fighting on and off for over a decade, so he may just be who he is at this point. He will take on Canada’s Gordon, who had a breakout win over Yoni Sherbatov in April 2019 but has not had the opportunity to capitalize since. It was hard to glean a lot from Gordon’s available recent fights since they have ended so quickly. He has consistently found himself in early trouble, only to suddenly latch on a fight-ending submission. Gordon looks like the type of fighter who will dole out one or two prospect losses if he sticks on the UFC roster, but Albazi’s well-roundedness should help him take this one, and the adopted Brit does not look sloppy enough to get caught for a finish. The pick is Albazi via decision.

Lightweights

Arman Tsarukyan (14-2, -210) vs. Davi Ramos (10-3, +175): Tsarukyan does not get talked about enough when it comes to the UFC’s best prospects, but the Armenian-Russian has done shockingly well against a tough slate of competition thus far. Still just 23 years old, Tsarukyan was thrown into the deep end for his UFC debut, as he was pitted against Islam Makhachev in a co-main event spot in St. Petersburg. Tsarukyan did not come out with a win, but he gave Makhachev his toughest fight in a good while, then followed it with an impressive win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Tsarukyan gets another tough out this time around in Ramos, an interesting fighter with some clear positives and negatives. Those high on Ramos can point to his decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu career and powerful striking game as skills upon which he can always rely, but the Brazilian’s willingness to put his strength into everything he does leaves him with a limited gas tank. Usually, this manifests by Ramos keeping a slow pace and focusing on his striking game more than he should, but in his last bout—his own loss against Makhachev—Ramos was baited into a difficult fight and got run ragged by the end of it. Tsarukyan will likely try to replicate that performance, as he is a similarly tireless wrestler who does not seem concerned that his style could fail. He probably has the talent to do so, but where this becomes interesting is that Ramos is much more dangerous in single moments than Tsarukyan’s two UFC opponents. Plus, Tsarukyan does not have much concern for defense, so there is the chance that he runs directly into a knockout blow or quick submission that hands Ramos the win. The pick is Tsarukyan via decision, but this should be a tense affair throughout, at least until Ramos starts to get obviously exhausted.

Heavyweights

Sergey Spivak (10-2, -145) vs. Carlos Felipe (8-0, +125): Moldova’s Spivak has already overachieved, using his grappling and wrestling to score an upset win over Tai Tuivasa in October. Otherwise, things have not gone too well for the “Polar Bear” inside the Octagon. Walt Harris sparked him in short order, and Spivak’s last bout saw him get handily outwrestled by Marcin Tybura. He will look to rebound against a UFC newcomer in Felipe, who the UFC certainly seems to like. A failed drug test took Felipe out of his slated debut back in 2017 and got him cut from his contract, but the promotion decided to re-sign him late last year. Based off what little footage is out there, it remains unclear why the UFC has deemed him a priority. Felipe is a wild knockout artist with only a minute or two of effective offense in his gas tank, even if he is willing to keep working through exhaustion to stay aggressive. That may be enough to overwhelm Spivak, but otherwise, the key is going to be in the grappling department. Spivak is heavily reliant on throws, and while the Moldovan was able to toss around Tuivasa, Felipe’s combination of size and, frankly, not being Tuivasa from a grappling standpoint may be enough to stifle that part of Spivak’s game. Still, there is no reason to choose Felipe here after a three-year layoff, though hopefully the Brazilian has put the time off to good use. The pick is Spivak via second-round submission.