Preview: UFC Fight Night 169 ‘Benavidez vs. Figueiredo’

Lightweights

NR | Luis Pena (7-2) vs. NR | Steve Garcia (11-3): Pena got noticed almost immediately after his pro debut, and it is easy to see why. He is a gigantic lightweight who can pull off some athletic stuff, and his red afro has earned him the moniker of “Violent Bob Ross.” That got him into the UFC in short order, but it has been a struggle, partly since Pena was so raw upon making it to the Octagon. On the feet, Pena mostly hunts for the finish, and the best part of his game is his willingness to clinch and constantly scramble with his opponents, though even that is a double-edged sword, as Pena is willing to put himself into some bad positions and the finishes have dried up against better competition. On the plus side, he had his most complete performance yet in a narrow loss to Matt Frevola in October, and he will look to rebound here against an organizational newcomer. Garcia, a veteran of both Bellator MMA and Dana White’s Contender Series, has spent most of his career at bantamweight but should still be competitive here, as he was giant at 135 pounds and is still fairly large for a lightweight. He can crack a bit, so if Pena decides to mess around, he could find himself in trouble. With that said, Garcia’s defensive wrestling looks to be a weakness, so Pena should be able to control the fight—if not get the finish—via grappling exchanges. The pick is Pena via decision.

Bantamweights

NR | Gabriel Silva (8-1, -130) vs. NR | Kyler Phillips (6-1, +110): This should be a fun fight, even if both fighters are quite a ways from making an impact. Silva was a bit of a mystery man upon his UFC debut in July, as there was not much in the way of available footage or even all that much information, outside of his being the younger brother of former UFC welterweight Erick Silva. However, he acquitted himself well against Ray Borg; the fight was mostly a grind, so Silva did not get to show all of his game, but he held his own against a tough and talented grappler and at least made it a close loss. He will take on Kyler Phillips, who finally makes his UFC debut. The “Matrix” scored a quick finish on Dana White’s Contender Series and went through “The Ultimate Fighter” but did not come away with a contract either time. Phillips looks to have the higher ceiling of the two, but he is also obviously rawer. He is quite well-rounded offensively, but a weak slate of competition to open his career has left him struggling when opponents refuse to respect him and either start throwing or wrestling back. It remains unclear if Silva is at the level where he can make Phillips pay for that tendency. Given that the American’s issues are much more obvious on film, the pick is Silva via decision.

Middleweights

NR | Tom Breese (11-1, -130) vs. NR | Brendan Allen (13-3, +110): It has been a strange UFC run for Breese, who still has a ton of potential but has seen his career stall out for the last four years or so. The Birmingham, England, native came to the UFC with some hype in 2015 and quickly made himself known, running through Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. and Cathal Pendred. However, his 2016 campaign saw things tamp down a bit: His victory over Keita Nakamura was a much more patient performance, and he lost a slow-paced split decision to Sean Strickland. Since then, things have been a bit of a mess, with injuries and anxiety issues limiting Breese to only one fight since UFC 199. In fact, he has been pulled from two different cards on fight day due to anxiety. For all his issues outside the cage, Breese looked as strong as ever in that lone appearance—a first-round finish of Daniel Kelly in May 2018. Breese is still somehow just 28 years old, so there is still plenty of time for him to make a run up the ladder in earnest, and Allen will provide a solid test to see just where he sits. Allen put together a solid resume before making it to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series—all three of his losses are to current UFC middleweights—and he made good on his debut, submitting Kevin Holland in October. Allen certainly lives up to his “All In” moniker, as he fights like a maniac, constantly hunting for offense with no regard for defense. That constant aggression may cause Breese some frustration, but since his mental issues have not shown up inside the cage yet, it also figures to get Allen lit up on the feet. Add in that Breese has a strong grappling game and should be able to neutralize Allen’s attempts at submissions, and this looks like a fight the Englishman should win handily if he is anywhere near peak form. The pick is Breese via second-round stoppage.

Heavyweights

NR | Sergey Spivak (10-1, -130) vs. NR | Marcin Tybura (17-6, +110): It has gone somewhat under the radar, but Tybura has endured a tough slide over the last two-plus years. The Pole is not a particularly physical heavyweight, so he always figured to have some struggles in the UFC, but after dropping his debut to Timothy Johnson, it seemed that he had rounded out his striking game and figured things out enough to have some success. Three straight wins earned him a headlining spot against Fabricio Werdum, but after losing that fight in one-sided fashion, Tybura has not had much success, with his one win coming over Stefan Struve. When Tybura can get his wrestling going, things are just fine, but when isolated to a kickboxing match, he is much too patient and allows his opponents to pick their spots. That cost him against Shamil Abdurakhimov, and getting sparked by Augusto Sakai in under a minute in September was quite concerning. He will look to rebound against Moldova’s Spivac, who is coming off a surprising win against Tai Tuivasa. Spivac was a mildly interesting prospect but looked set to wash out of the UFC. After Walt Harris ran through him, Spivac was an obvious setup opponent for Tuivasa on a card in Melbourne, Australia. However, Spivac managed to take advantage of Tuivasa’s formless style and complete lack of wrestling skill, eventually earning a second-round submission to quiet the Aussie faithful. It is difficult to calibrate exactly where Spivac falls—the array of judo throws he utilized against a clueless Tuivasa may not work against better competition—which makes this an interesting fight and one that is hard to call. Spivac is certainly the more aggressive fighter, so if he can either shut down Tybura’s wrestling or get his own grappling game going, this fight is certainly his to win. However, being a better wrestler than Tuivasa is clearing a low bar. The pick is still Spivac via decision, but this is the rare pick where a dominant loss in the other direction would not be all that surprising.

Featherweights

NR | Jordan Griffin (17-7, -140) vs. NR | T.J. Brown (14-6, +120): This should be a fun, all-action affair. Griffin has yet to earn his first UFC win, but he has provided entertainment in each of his two bouts in the Octagon thus far. The “Native Psycho” is committed to aggression, willing to throw down without much regard for defense and particularly adept at causing havoc on the mat. Skimming through Griffin’s fights, there is always someone battling out of a fight-ending submission, and it is a coin toss as to whether it is Griffin or his opponent. It should be much the same against a newcomer and fellow Dana White’s Contender Series alum in Brown. The Arkansas native is a similarly all-offense fighter who is at his best trying to hunt for submissions. There is not much separating each fighter from the other, so this should just be a series of mad scrambles for as long as the fight lasts. Griffin is the much more proven fighter, so the pick is for him to finally get his first UFC win via third-round submission.

Featherweights

NR | Aalon Cruz (8-2, -175) vs. NR | Spike Carlyle (8-1, +155): Cruz checked all the boxes the UFC covets when signing fighters off Dana White’s Contender Series. He stayed aggressive throughout three rounds of a tough fight and then finished things off with a flying knee to earn a comeback win in the last minute of his bout. It is unclear how far that will take him in the UFC, but he should provide some fun fights while competing in the Octagon, including this bout against a late replacement and fellow newcomer in Carlyle. “The Alpha Ginger” is a bit of a man of mystery, as there is not much tape available from his pro career, save for some highlights. However, he is bricked-up and has shown some solid grappling skills, even if it is unclear how much striking talent he has besides the power to score a knockout. If nothing else, that strength and wrestling ability should be enough to dictate the terms of this fight, and Cruz’s grappling defense looks to be somewhere between suspect and untested. The pick is Carlyle via second-round submission.

Welterweights

NR | Ismail Naurdiev (19-3, -130) vs. NR | Sean Brady (11-0, +110): It is a bit odd that this fight is relegated to the opener, given that it might be the second-best bout on the card. Naurdiev certainly had an up-and-down 2019 campaign, as he was both responsible for and the victim of one of the biggest upsets of the year. “The Austrian Wonderboy” came out of nowhere to snap Michel Prazeres’ eight-fight winning streak in his UFC debut, then turned around and got dominated in what figured to be a showcase bout against Chance Rencountre. Naurdiev is an excellent kickboxer, given his youth, and has some decent wrestling, to boot. After showing off all of it in a win over Siyar Bahadurzada, he looks to continue his momentum with a victory over Brady. Philadelphia’s Brady is an excellent prospect in his own right, but it remains to be seen how he adapts to working his way up the UFC ladder. On a regional level, he had a well-rounded game that built as his fights went on, but going from five-round championship fights back to three-rounders might require a bit of a shift, though his debut win over Court McGee was a promising start. Brady could take this if he gets his counter game going early and shows off some strong takedown defense. Given that Naurdiev is the quicker starter, has the reach advantage and is the superior athlete, he should be able to take this. The pick is Naurdiev via decision.