Lightweights
NR | Lando Vannata (10-4-2) vs. NR | Yancy Medeiros (15-6)ODDS: Vannata (-110), Medeiros (-110)
In retrospect, a hot start to his UFC career may have been the worst thing to happen to Vannata. “Groovy Lando” stepped in for a late-notice UFC debut against Tony Ferguson and had the perennial top contender in trouble before faltering late; and after following that with a beautiful wheel kick knockout of John Makdessi, Vannata entered 2017 as one of the promotion’s top prospects. Since then, Vannata has not enjoyed much success, as his lone win came in a “gimme” against Marcos Mariano and every other bout has showcased the flaws in his style. Vannata plays it loose to a fault, adopting a weird movement-heavy style. Coming up through the regional ranks, that was enough to throw off opposition and score finish after finish, but as opponents have learned what Vannata brings to the table, the knockouts have dried up and has been left to tire himself out. Save for the Mariano fight, Vannata’s last six bouts have seen three decision losses and two draws, which seems about right. Vannata’s fights are often an inconsistent mess of dynamic success and getting hit with everything his opponent brings to the table. There is still enough there that Vannata’s spot on the UFC roster seems safe, but at 27 years old, the time to show some improvement is here and now against Medeiros.
Medeiros has settled into his own niche as an action fighter, even if he has been surprisingly inactive over the last few years. After a slow start to his career saw him plateau at lightweight, the Hawaiian moved up to welterweight and had an outstanding three-fight run, culminating in a war against Alex Oliveira that saw Medeiros get the stoppage win in a 2017 “Fight of the Year” contender. However, Medeiros was mostly outclassed by Donald Cerrone in a headlining affair and made the surprising decision to cut back down to 155 pounds, where Gregor Gillespie mauled him in January 2019. Like Vannata, Medeiros has set his floor high enough that he is not in any danger of falling off the roster, but if he wants to be known for his success rather than his excitement, a win here would provide a lot of help.
This would be an easier call if Vannata’s career had shown any sort of consistent progression. In his 2018 draw with Matt Frevola, he at least showed some willingness to step off the gas and take a more measured approach; and while Mariano was there to be run over, Vannata showed the wrinkle of using his wrestling. However, against Marc Diakiese in September, that all went out the window and it was back to the same all-offense-no-defense Vannata, whose cardio suffered as a result. Medeiros is there to be exploited if Vannata is willing to vary things, apply some pressure and mix in some wrestling, but at this point, it looks like he is more likely to try his usual range striking approach and turn this into a war. This should be exciting, particularly since neither man figures to be able to finish the other, but Medeiros is the much safer bet to keep a consistent pace for all three rounds. The pick is Medeiros via decision.
Finish Reading » ESPN+ Prelims