Preview: UFC Fight Night 166 ‘Blaydes vs. Dos Santos’
Tom FeelyJan 22, 2020
Middleweights
Bevon Lewis (6-2, -410) vs. Dequan Townsend (21-9, +330): Lewis is definitely a talent, but he finds himself in a must-win situation shockingly early in his UFC career. Lewis’ UFC debut went about as well as possible until the end. Thrown in way over his head against Uriah Hall, Lewis showed off his impressive striking and clinch skills against the former Ring of Combat champion for the better part of two rounds. Then Hall pulled his usual trick of scoring a comeback win with a sudden and violent finish. Suffering his first loss in such spectacular fashion seems to have had an effect on Lewis. He looked good early in his most recent bout against Darren Stewart. However, as soon as Stewart hit Lewis with some hard offense, the latter took his foot off the gas to the point that he wound up losing the fight. He will take on Townsend, who made his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice in June and lost to Dalcha Lungiambula up a weight class at 205 pounds. Townsend can do some interesting things—he has a solid range striking game and a willingness to push the pace—but he is the type of fighter who got here on quantity, not quality, of wins. If Lewis is truly broken, Townsend may be able to throw him off, but Townsend does not seem to be a hard-enough hitter to prevent Lewis from doing his thing. The pick is Lewis via second-round knockout.
Featherweights
Arnold Allen (15-1, -275) vs. Nik Lentz (30-10-2, +215): The UFC made the best of a bad situation, as Allen and Lentz each lost their opponents and were subsequently matched against each other on late notice. Allen remains an interesting but slightly weird prospect, even after four and a half years on the UFC’s roster. The Englishman is obviously a natural talent with some ridiculous physical strength, but for his first few fights, it certainly felt like Allen was relying on that toughness and power to get wins by the skin of his teeth; of his first four UFC wins, one was a messy split decision and two were come-from-behind submissions in the third round. Allen in 2009 finally shook the inactivity that has plagued his career and showed a few new wrinkles, as he displayed some shockingly sharp kickboxing in wins over Jordan Rinaldi and Gilbert Melendez. “Almighty Arnold” still feels like he has a game made up of skills that have yet to coalesce into a deeper strategy, but it will be interesting to see how he looks against Lentz, who returns to 145 pounds. It is a bit shocking to see Lentz cut back down to featherweight, given that he has slowly abandoned his grinding style for a high-power game that quickly saps his cardio. That tradeoff is only getting more pronounced after cutting 10 additional pounds, and it is difficult to imagine Lentz being effective for more than a round. Add in that Allen is one of the strongest featherweights on the roster, and Lentz may not even have that early success in a terrible style matchup. The pick is Allen via second-round submission.
Women’s Flyweights
Lucie Pudilova (8-5, -170) vs. Justine Kish (6-2, +150): This fight has some underrated potential to be a banger, due mostly to Pudilova. The Czech fighter has not had an amazingly successful UFC career in terms of wins and losses, but she has proven herself to be one of the most exciting fighters on the roster thanks to her willingness to fight like an absolute maniac. She still has some potential: She has a long frame for the division, and at just 25 years old, she is still in the phase of her career where she is improving from fight to fight. She really could use a win here against Kish, who has some interesting skills but has not had much in the way of career momentum. Kish returns from a two-year layoff, and that has been the story of her UFC run. She has been on the roster for over five years, but she has only been healthy for a three-year stretch (2016-18). Kish can do a little bit of everything, but the combination of her poor defense and Pudilova’s aggression and pace makes this a winnable fight for the latter. The main worry is that Pudilova charges directly into the clinch, where Kish is likely the stronger fighter. Even so, Kish is not likely to press her advantages outright. The pick is Pudilova via decision.
Bantamweights
Montel Jackson (8-1, -650) vs. Felipe Dias Colares (9-1, +475): Jackson did not earn a contract on the 2018 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, but the Milwaukee native has been one of the more successful graduates of the season. Jackson stepped in on short notice at UFC 227 and suffered a loss to Ricky Simon, but he earned a moral victory due to his ability to survive Simon’s constant push of offense. Jackson has looked excellent ever since, taking care of Brian Kelleher in less than two minutes before earning a dominant win over Andre Soukhamthath in his most recent fight. He should be able to take care of Colares, a Brazilian who did not show much in his UFC debut but showed some potential as a grinder after cutting down to 135 pounds and beating Domingo Pilarte in July. Here, that approach just figures to get Colares in trouble, as Jackson should be able to control and outwork him in close quarters. The pick is Jackson via first-round submission.
Women’s Bantamweights
Sara McMann (11-5, -150) vs. Lina Lansberg (10-4, +130): It has certainly been an up-and-down career for McMann. An Olympic silver medalist as a wrestler, McMann was tabbed early on as a potential foil for Ronda Rousey, but that was over and done with in short order. Her quiet personality did not spark any sort of huge hype for their fight, and Rousey ran through her challenger in just 66 seconds. McMann struggled for a bit after that until apparently putting things together as a powerful submission threat. However, just as McMann seemed set to regain her contender status, she suffered two disappointing submission losses and then stepped away from the sport due to pregnancy. Two years later, McMann is back against Sweden’s Lansberg, who has gained some momentum over the last year. Lansberg was plucked off the regional scene to main event a card against Cristiane Justino and spent the first few years of her UFC career showing little except for a stifling but low-output clinch game. She has rounded things out a bit in recent years and earned big wins over Tonya Evinger and Macy Chiasson as a result. McMann is the more powerful wrestler, and Lansberg simply is not the type of finishing threat to take advantage of the South Carolinian’s lapses in judgment to score a submission. Unless McMann is completely shot, this is hers to lose. The pick is McMann via decision, with a decent chance of a submission.
Bantamweights
Tony Gravely (19-5, -120) vs. Brett Johns (15-2, +100): This bout might be the highlight of the preliminary card. The first Welshman to step foot inside the Octagon, Johns got his UFC career off to an excellent start, capping off three straight wins with a beautiful calf slicer submission on Joe Soto. However, once Johns faced top contenders like Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munhoz, everything fell apart. He needs the threat of his powerful wrestling game to make everything else work, and against strong defensive wrestlers and submission threats like those two men, Johns just wound up getting neutralized and pieced up on the feet. After a long injury layoff, “The Pikey” faces a promising Dana White’s Contender Series alum in Gravely, a Virginia-based wrestler who was a clear standout of the most recent season. Gravely definitely has a UFC-ready resume, but this will be an interesting test for the newcomer. Johns is a powerful athlete in his own right, and Gravely has his own questions to answer about what he can do when his wrestling does not work. If one fighter can get his wrestling going and shut down the other’s, this could be one-way traffic. Since Johns is the more proven fighter and looks to be stronger, the pick is the Welshman via decision.
Featherweights
Nate Landwehr (13-2, -120) vs. Herbert Burns (9-2, +100): A fun bout between UFC newcomers kicks off festivities. Tennessee’s Landwehr took a circuitous route to get here, making a name for himself in Russia and earning the M-1 Global featherweight title to put himself on the UFC radar. He will take on Gilbert Burns’ younger brother, who survived some early trouble against Darrick Minner to score a submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. This is classic striker-versus-grappler stuff. Landwehr’s fights are marked by his fighting back from takedowns to keep fights standing and try to start a war; Burns tends to get pieced up on the feet until he can get things to the mat. Burns is probably a better pure submission threat than a lot of Landwehr’s recent opponents, but the American has shown enough takedown defense that he should be able to get by here; and he has generally proven himself against better competition. The pick is Landwehr via second-round stoppage.