Preview: UFC Fight Night 164 ‘Blachowicz vs. Jacare’
Tom FeelyNov 13, 2019
Welterweights
NR | James Krause (26-7, -210) vs. NR | Sergio Moraes (14-5-1, +175): This should be a solid enough scrap, but it comes off as odd matchmaking given the recent performances of the two participants. Krause’s career has been slowing down -- he spends much of his time coaching -- but the Missouri native is coming off one of his career-best showings. After spending his career as a massive lightweight, Krause decided to make the full-time move to 170 pounds for his 2018 bout against Warlley Alves, and the results were excellent. Krause looked both sharp and quick, eventually finishing Alves with a brutal combination in the second round. It is obviously not at the same level, but it has been a similar case to Jorge Masvidal where a move up in weight, along with some newfound aggression, has finally made good on a longtime veteran’s potential. For a long-awaited follow-up, Krause heads to Brazil to take on Moraes, who has endured a rough year. Moraes has long been one of the most underrated fighters on the roster. His combination of all-world grappling and some unorthodox but powerful striking led to a seven-fight undefeated streak from 2012 to 2017. However, after chugging along without much trouble, Moraes has fallen on some hard times in performances against Anthony Rocco Martin and the aforementioned Alves. Both fights saw Moraes get taken out of his game early and never get back on track, raising some concern that, at age 37, the Brazilian’s career is nearing its end. Skill for skill, this is a close bout, but given how each man has looked recently, it is hard not to favor Krause to stick to a smart game plan and press the action. A return to form for Moraes would be appreciated, but the pick is Krause via decision.
Featherweights
NR | Ricardo Ramos (13-2, -255) vs. NR | Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (13-0, +215): He has enjoyed success thus far, but it is still a bit hard to know what to make of Ramos. He is an obvious talent, particularly at age 24, but he has yet to produce a signature performance inside the Octagon. “Carcacinha” is a creative striker and an aggressive submission artist, but for everything he does on offense, he tends to give it back on the defense end -- a trait which cost him in his lone UFC loss, a quick finish at the hands of Said Nurmagomedov. Ramos surprisingly makes a jump to featherweight, where he will face Garagorri, who is coming off an impressive debut in his native Uruguay in August. Garagorri was the local representation for the UFC’s card in Montevideo, and after a weak regional schedule, it was nice to see Garagorri show up as a solid fundamental kickboxer and earn a one-sided win over Humberto Bandenay. There are plenty of questions here. Garagorri’s ceiling remains unclear, given his weak slate of competition, and it is also unclear what Ramos will and will not carry to his new weight class. The underdog’s steadier approach may be enough to handle the wilder Ramos, but the pick is still Ramos via decision, mostly on the logic that the Brazilian is by far the toughest opponent of Garagorri’s career.
Lightweights
NR | Francisco Trinaldo (23-7, -115) vs. NR | Bobby Green (24-9-1, -105): This fun and surprisingly crucial bout between veteran lightweights stands out as one of the highlights on this preliminary card. Trinaldo became a fan favorite on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” but upon hitting the UFC roster proper, he did not seem geared for much success. Already in his mid-30s, Trinaldo’s approach relied on his physical strength to bull around and submit opponents. However, with the extra money from making his way into the UFC, Trinaldo trained more and developed a surprisingly effective counterstriking game, rounding out things enough that “Massaranduba” eventually rode a seven-fight winning streak to the fringes of the Top 15. Trinaldo has plateaued in recent years -- not surprising, given that he is now 41 years old -- but Green presents an interesting next test. The Californian’s career is constantly derailed by long stretches of inactivity, but when he makes it to the cage, Green is a classic young veteran, possessing plenty of talent but more focused on winning exchanges than putting his stamp on the overall fight. This is a close one to call and probably relies on how things go in the clinch. From a distance, Green probably has the speed, volume and defense to work around Trinaldo’s big one-shot counters, but the American tends to eventually work his way into the clinch, where both men are well-practiced. Trinaldo may just possess the physical strength to nullify the fight whenever Green takes it into close quarters, but the pick is for Green to take a decision on the back of pace and volume.
Welterweights
NR | Warlley Alves (13-3, -115) vs. NR | Randy Brown (11-3, -105): It has taken a bit longer than expected, but Alves might finally be cashing in on his considerable potential. Alves looked like an absolute monster coming off his season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” in 2014, and despite some cardio issues, he hit the ground running shortly thereafter, rattling off four wins that included an 86-second submission Colby Covington. However, Alves’ gas tank eventually betrayed him, and after a series of disappointing losses, he has slowly been figuring out how to pace himself. His win over Sergio Moraes in May was a particularly impressive affair, as he broke down Moraes before obliterating him late. This fight against Brown should be an interesting follow-up. Brown was extremely raw upon his 2016 UFC debut and has been learning on the job since, but he may have finally turned his own corner against Bryan Barberena in June. In an overall sense, Brown is still the same offensively focused and defensively lax fighter he has been throughout his entire career, but against one of the toughest opponents of his career, he showed much more willingness to bite down and lay on damage until he cracked Barberena’s typically stout chin. He could wear out Alves here, but with the Brazilian getting smarter about picking his shots, it is hard not to see the X-Gym rep eventually finding the right time to hit something brutal. The pick is Alves via second-round stoppage.
Featherweights
NR | Douglas Silva de Andrade (25-3, -240) vs. NR | Renan Barao (34-8, +200): It is a bit surprising that Barao is still here. Just five and a half years ago, he was one of the consensus top fighters in the world and reigning over the UFC’s bantamweight division while riding a nine-year, 30-plus-fight unbeaten streak. However, T.J. Dillashaw dominated Barao in one of the biggest upsets in the sport’s history, and the Brazilian has been absolutely broken ever since, only winning two of his last nine fights. A brief move to featherweight went nowhere, but Barao’s return to 135 pounds went even worse, as “The Baron” missed weight in three out of the four fights and looked increasingly worse each time out. Barao still obviously has some skill and has even gotten out to a hot start in most of his recent appearances, but as soon as his opponent can control the fight, he gets completely derailed, either retreating into his shell or getting absolutely shellacked. Silva de Andrade joins Barao in moving back to 145 pounds after a quietly underrated campaign at bantamweight. “D’Silva” is an odd fighter -- an absolute tank who seemingly throws whatever comes to mind in the moment, relying on power over process. It has its flaws, but as soon as Silva de Andrade can crack Barao with the first hard shot of the fight, things should only get more successful from there. The pick is Silva de Andrade via first-round knockout.
Women’s Flyweights
NR | Veronica Macedo (6-3-1, -160) vs. NR | Ariane Lipski (11-5, +140): Lipski has been one of the more disappointing UFC newcomers of 2019. “The Violence Queen” stood out in both Brazil and Poland, but she has seemed unprepared for what her UFC competition has brought to the table. Joanne Calderwood matched Lipski in the clinch and relied on her wrestling, while Molly McCann surprisingly outworked Lipski with her aggression and willingness to eat the Brazilian’s offense. Somewhat surprisingly, Lipski is in a must-win situation just 10 months into her UFC career, and she draws a late replacement in Macedo. The last few years have been a struggle for Macedo. She was signed just months into her professional career, and as an undersized and not particularly athletic flyweight, she did not show much in the way of effective offense before submitting Polyana Viana in August. Macedo might take this if she presses for takedowns -- Lipski is not much of a wrestler, and Macedo is aggressive when going for submissions -- but the Venezuelan tends to favor an outside striking game, which should play into Lipski’s hands. While it is hard to have faith in her, the pick still Lipski via decision.
Women’s Bantamweights
NR | Tracy Cortez (6-1, -175) vs. NR | Vanessa Melo (10-6, +155): The UFC’s female signings out of Brazil are typically aggressive can-crushers, so it was nice when it picked up Melo, who certainly breaks that mold. Melo has fought a strong level of competition, and she is a counter-fighter and a decision machine, almost to a fault. She got picked apart in her debut, a late-notice affair against Irene Aldana in September, but hopes to improve against the debuting Cortez. An Invicta Fighting Championships and Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Cortez is an aggressive wrestler and not much else at this point. Given the late-notice nature, this is a one-off fight at 135 pounds for Cortez, which adds an interesting dynamic: She was not a particularly strong control artist at flyweight, but will things look better with a lesser weight cut against larger competition? If Cortez cannot get this to the ground, she is going to get picked apart. However, given that Melo is not a particularly large bantamweight, the pick is for Cortez to grind out an ugly decision.