Preview: UFC Fight Night 161 ‘Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson’

Welterweights

Niko Price (13-3, -170) vs. James Vick (13-4, +150): Vick’s long-awaited move to welterweight has arrived. At 6-foot-3, Vick was an absolutely gigantic lightweight, but up until about a year ago, he was having enough success to justify the massive weight cut. Save for a 2016 defeat to Beneil Dariush, “The Texecutioner” was undefeated in his first 10 UFC bouts. However, as soon as Vick hit the upper tier at 155 pounds, his fortunes turned in a hurry. Paul Felder managed to pick apart Vick, and that loss was sandwiched by brutal knockouts at the hands of Justin Gaethje and Dan Hooker. As a result, Vick decided to take things easier on his body and ply his trade at 170 pounds, but he gets a tough first opponent in Price. The Floridian is not a particularly cerebral fighter, but he manages to leverage his own physical gifts into success, particularly some impressive knockout power that remains dangerous in any phase of the fight; he even managed to knock Randy Brown out with hammerfists from his back. A lot of Price’s power is created by his long arms, which makes him a particularly cruel opponent to meet Vick at 170 pounds, since the Texan’s defense mostly relies on his height to keep opponents at bay. Vick may find some early success, but as soon as Price starts fighting back, he will probably get hit hard before he can adjust to the offense coming his way. The pick is Price via first-round knockout.

Lightweights

Thomas Gifford (14-8) vs. Mike Davis (6-2): This was ostensibly supposed to be a showcase fight for newcomer Brok Weaver, but with the Dana White’s Contender Series alum out of commission, the UFC turned to another DWCS veteran on short notice. Florida’s Davis made his name with a corker of a Contender Series bout against current top featherweight prospect Sodiq Yusuff, and this marks the second time he has stepped into the Octagon for a short-notice opportunity at lightweight. Davis looked fine in his debut considering he got a tough draw in Gilbert Burns, and he looks to rebound against Gifford, who is trying to recover from his own debut loss in April against Roosevelt Roberts. Gifford is a tricky fighter since he is a giant lightweight and an aggressive submission threat, but Davis has shown some solid takedown defense and enough striking to be able to take this. Davis does look to wrestle a bit too much for his own good, so there is a chance that he dives into a guillotine. However, the pick is Davis via decision.

Light Heavyweights

Ryan Spann (16-5, -140) vs. Devin Clark (10-3, +120): This is not quite a home game for Texas’ Spann, but at least he finally gets a UFC fight on American soil. After getting a quick win on Season 2 of Dana White’s Contender Series to make up for his loss on Season 1, Spann has been sent to Brazil for his first two UFC bouts. His win over Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira was not a particularly exciting affair, as Spann tried to counter the Brazilian’s wrestling with inconsistent success. Spann made up for that the next time out, even if it was a bit depressing to see him knock out a shopworn Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Now back in the United States, Spann takes on South Dakota’s Clark, who is looking for consistency in his UFC run. Clark has a bunch of tools but has yet to coalesce them into something effective. He has mostly alternated wins and losses as a result. Clark’s offense on the feet usually comes at the expense of his defense -- a tendency that is only further exacerbated by a suspect chin -- so his fights usually come down to his ability to impose a wrestling game upon his opponent. Spann has shown enough takedown defense that he can probably get through this, and if this fight is standing for any length of time, Clark figures to charge right into something devastating. The pick is Spann via first-round knockout.

Welterweights

Max Griffin (15-6, -135) vs. Alex Morono (16-5, +115): It took some time, but California’s Griffin eventually found his footing as a reliably fun welterweight, even showing enough fight IQ to earn a 2018 upset of Mike Perry. Griffin is nearing his 34th birthday and has nearly a decade of pro experience, so he is more gatekeeper than hot prospect, but he should be able to provide entertainment to the masses until his body starts to betray him. He will take on Texas’ Morono, who ostensibly comes from a grappling background but has found most of his success as an aggressive brawler. Morono’s fights are rarely pretty but they are often enjoyable, and a March demolition of Zak Ottow gave “The Great White” three wins in his last four appearances. Griffin has all the tools to take this as the quicker and more well-rounded fighter, but Morono should have his moments, as he is pathologically aggressive and Griffin typically finds himself in danger at least once per fight. Nevertheless, the pick is Griffin by decision in a dark horse contender for “Fight of the Night.”

Flyweights

Deiveson Figueiredo (16-1, -240) vs. Tim Elliott (15-8-1, +200): Beyond the style matchup, this bout features two flyweights who easily could have survived if forced to move up to 135 pounds full-time. Elliott has been teasing a move to bantamweight for a while due to his brutal cut to 125 pounds, but injuries kept him out of action during the entire time the division was on its deathbed, and he somewhat surprisingly is continuing his flyweight campaign now that the weight class is alive and well. Elliott is typically the larger and more powerful fighter when he steps into the cage, but that might not be the case against Figueiredo, who is an absolute tank for the division. Figueiredo’s physical strength usually allows him to blow through his opponent’s defenses, whether on the feet or with some vicious ground-and-pound, and thus far, only the technical skill of Jussier Formiga has managed to control the Brazilian and hand “Deus da Guerra” a loss. Neither man should have his typical physical advantages, and that makes Elliott worth the flier. The Missouri native is the much more active fighter and has the better round-winning style. Plus, Formiga showed that an aggressive grappler can have some success and leave Figueiredo without much in the way of ideas. The pick is Elliott via decision.

Bantamweights

Marlon Vera (14-5-1, -185) vs. Andre Ewell (15-5, +160): It has been a fun ride through the UFC ranks for “Chito” Vera, who started out as an overmatched fan favorite on “The Ultimate Fighter” but has since put Ecuador on the MMA map, developing into an underrated action fighter at bantamweight. Vera is probably still a bit too reliant on the finish, but so far so good, as he consistently overcomes his slow starts and has earned four straight finishes, three of which have come in the second round. He probably deserves a bump in competition, but he will get an intriguing challenge here against Ewell, who is coming off a career-best performance against Anderson dos Santos. Ewell made his name with a 2018 win over Renan Barao that probably says more about the latter’s fall than anything else, but after getting schooled by Nathaniel Wood, the dos Santos win showed that Ewell can be a quick and dynamic striker. Ewell will be dangerous at first given Vera’s history of taking a while to get warmed up, but as soon as “Chito” adjusts, he should be able to take over, especially with how terrible Ewell’s grappling game has looked to date. The pick is Vera via first-round submission.

Welterweights

Miguel Baeza (6-0, -200) vs. Hector Aldana (4-2, +170): Hopefully Aldana knows what the deal is at this point. A graduate of Season 2 of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” Aldana did not make his UFC debut until nearly three years later, when he was essentially brought in to lose to Kenan Song in China. After losing to Argentina’s Laureano Staropoli in Argentina, Aldana now manages to get a third UFC fight in Tampa against a Florida native. Baeza had a fun scrap with Victor Reyna on Dana White’s Contender Series, and while he might eventually get lost in a deep welterweight division, he should have enough to take care of Aldana without much trouble. Aldana is a one-dimensional power puncher, and while Baeza might be a bit too willing to throw down for his own good, he should consistently be able to beat Aldana to the punch and has some wrestling to fall back on if he needs it. The pick is Baeza via second-round knockout.

Middleweights

Marvin Vettori (13-4-1, -300) vs. Andrew Sanchez (11-4, +250): Sanchez has had a frustrating run since impressing on a 2016 season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” On the show, Sanchez flashed his strong grappling game and some knockout power, but during his proper UFC tenure, his gas tank has absolutely betrayed him. A comeback loss to Anthony Smith has not aged poorly, but it was impressive in all the worst ways. Sanchez later managed to tire himself out enough to get knocked out by Ryan Janes in 2017 after the Canadian refused to be put away. Sanchez has done a little better in terms of taking his foot off the gas, but even in his last bout against Marc-Andre Barriault in May, he found himself tired by the end of the third frame. That figures to cause problems here. Vettori nearly beat Israel Adesanya back in 2018 with some inconsistent pressure and wrestling, and he looked much better in his return against Cezar Ferreira over the summer. Sanchez might be able to rely on his wrestling enough to slow things down, but this looks like a fight where Vettori can consistently keep on the pressure and pace to eventually wear out the American. The pick is Vettori via decision, with a decent shot at a late finish.

Women’s Flyweights

J.J. Aldrich (7-3, -170) vs. Lauren Mueller (5-2, +150): A solid flyweight bout kicks off festivities. Aldrich is quietly putting together a solid campaign. While she will always have an athletic ceiling, she did surprisingly well while adhering to solid fundamentals and outlasting better athletes during her fights at strawweight. Her flyweight debut in March started off well enough, as she won the first round from Maycee Barber, only to see the blue-chip prospect storm back for a finish. Aldrich gets something of a soft landing against Lauren Mueller. Given the level of her previous competition, Mueller’s appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series essentially served as her pro debut, and while “Princess Tiger” looked good, it has not led to much in the way of UFC success. At the very least, Mueller knows to remain aggressive, but she simply has not developed the depth of skill yet to fully take over a fight or prevent what her opponent is trying to do. If Mueller makes the jump, this could be a close fight, but Aldrich is the more functional fighter and should be able to handle things wherever it goes. The pick is Aldrich via decision.