Middleweights
Tim Boetsch (21-12) vs. Omari Akhmedov (17-4-1)ODDS: Akhmedov (-150), Boetsch (+130)
Boetsch is still getting after it. Now that “The Barbarian” is sliding firmly into gatekeeper status, it is worth looking back on a career that was much more successful than it had any right to be. Boetsch washed out in his first UFC run but enjoyed a bunch more success the second time around, especially when he decided to cut down to middleweight in 2011. That gave him a strength advantage against most of his opponents and eventually led to a breakthrough win against Yushin Okami in 2012, where Boetsch staged a sudden comeback to upset “Thunder” in front of the Japanese faithful. That afforded Boetsch the opportunity to spoil the UFC debut of Hector Lombard in an awful fight that neither man deserved to win. Afterward, Lady Luck quickly turned against Boetsch, as he won only two of his next eight fights. Even through his slide, Boetsch still got some prominent fights due to his name value from years past, and eventually, his competition came down to a level where he managed to rack up some more wins, as he beat shopworn versions of Rafael Natal and Johny Hendricks in the last few years. A one-sided loss to Antonio Carlos Jr. in April poured a bit of cold water on Boetsch’s recent rebound, but he remains a tough and dangerous fighter who should provide a solid test for Akhmedov.
Perhaps Akhmedov has learned to pace himself. He was an interesting welterweight prospect through his first few UFC fights, capable of breaking down opponents with some powerful offense, but he kept running into the same issue. Akhmedov’s tendency to throw everything behind his strikes left him absolutely exhausted by the end of the fight, at which point his opponent could take over and often finish him. His lack of stamina cost him against Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but even in fights he was winning, like his most recent welterweight bout against Abdul Razak Alhassan, Akhmedov was spent by the end of the second round. Smartly, Akhmedov decided to move up to 185 pounds, where he would drain himself less cutting weight, but the same problems were present in his last fight against Marvin Vettori. After dumping his entire gas tank to win a one-sided first round, Akhmedov gave up the rest of the fight, which resulted in a draw. After injuries caused him to miss all of 2018, Akhmedov returns here. Hopefully, for his sake, he has learned something.
Akhmedov is more than capable of winning this fight, since he hits hard and Boetsch can sometimes be caught flush, but that represents his best chance. Akhmedov may have a solid wrestling game on which he can rely, but his clinch game may not work that well against the powerful Boetsch. Plus, Akhmedov’s takedown defense is surprisingly poor, so Boetsch may just be able to reverse things. At any rate, if Akhmedov cannot get an early knockout, it is difficult to have any faith in him surviving the latter stages of this fight, given his previous issues and the danger that Boetsch brings. The pick is Boetsch via third-round stoppage.
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