Ryan Spann dropped and finished Myron Dennis R1 at LFA 27 (2017) #UFCSaoPaulo pic.twitter.com/8Nny2JuE5F
— LORD HONKY HUMUNGUS (@Mr_Honky) September 17, 2018
Lightweights
Charles Oliveira (23-8) vs. Christos Giagos (15-6): The UFC added a flurry of late-notice bouts to this card to make up for some of the losses, and the best talent among the bunch is mercurial lightweight Oliveira. The UFC’s early matchmaking of Oliveira was a textbook example of how not to handle a gifted prospect, so as a result, the Brazilian remains one of the more frustrating talents on the roster. The best part of Oliveira’s game is still his venomous grappling, even if it isn’t quite the automatic out it used to be, and “Do Bronx” supplements that with an aggressive muay Thai style; the only issue is that sometimes that style leaves Oliveira defensively open, and as soon as the Brazilian finds himself in trouble, he has a bad tendency to crumble and lose a bout in one-sided fashion. Oliveira faces the returning Giagos, who was a surprising cut in 2015 and a surprising return here in 2018; Giagos is more or less the same athletically talented, well-rounded fighter he was when the UFC cut him, so while the California native has done fine on the regional scene, he may have the same issues he had during his first UFC run. One of those issues is that Giagos’ success tends to rely on his ability to get his grappling game going, which makes for a difficult matchup against as gifted a submission artist as Oliveira. Add in that Giagos doesn’t seem to have the punching power to make Oliveira fold, and this looks like a one-sided win for the hometown fighter; the pick is Oliveira via first-round submission. ODDS: Oliveira (-410), Giagos (+330)Advertisement
Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (22-6) vs. Evan Dunham (18-7-1): Despite still fighting at a high level, Dunham announced that this will be his final fight; while he never reached the heights some expected as he climbed the ranks as an undefeated prospect, Dunham turned into a well-rounded action fighter whose toughness and skill consistently made up for a lack of athleticism. Dunham is nearing 37 years old, so it’s not entirely shocking that he’s hanging the gloves up, but he’ll also be the spring chicken here against the 40-year-old Francisco Trinaldo. Brazilian fan favorite Trinaldo came off Season 1 of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” as a one-dimensional power grappler, but improved greatly during his time on the UFC roster, building out a strong counter-heavy striking game and maintaining shocking athleticism despite his age. Recent losses to Kevin Lee and James Vick have shown Trinaldo’s ceiling, but he’s still a top-twenty lightweight on this roster. This figures to be a close fight given that both men’s strength is in their well-roundedness, but I’ll favor Trinaldo, since he’s still the quicker and harder-hitting fighter. So while Dunham can easily win this, particularly on volume, the pick is Trinaldo via decision. ODDS: Trinaldo (-255), Dunham (+215)Light Heavyweights
Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (10-4) vs. Ryan Spann (14-5): Rio’s Oliveira moves down to 205 pounds from heavyweight, which is a calculated risk; Oliveira’s style at heavyweight was mostly based around smothering his opponents, which he can work better down a weight class, but given that he was somewhat plodding before, he could just as easily find himself too slow for his new division. Promotional newcomer Spann should be a solid first test, given the Texan’s speed and finishing ability. Spann’s career is dotted with quick finishes, both positive and negative; his two fights on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series lasted a combined 41 seconds, with Spann eating a knee from Karl Roberson before coming back the next year to tap out Emiliano Sordi in short order. It’s an easy fight to break down, but a hard one to call; either Spann nails Oliveira with something early, whether it’s a knockout punch or a reactive guillotine choke, or Oliveira grinds out a one-sided victory. I’ll say Spann gets the first-round knockout, but this fight is a coin flip. ODDS: Spann (-220), Oliveira (+180)Heavyweights
Augusto Sakai (11-1-1) vs. Chase Sherman (11-5): A bout between two diametrically opposed heavyweights kicks off the televised portion of things. Bellator vet Sakai is a perfectly fine heavyweight prospect, but the 27-year-old Brazilian is certainly an example of a fighter that is fighting his way into shape. Meanwhile, Mississippi’s Sherman looks good getting off the proverbial bus, but the former college football player’s tools have yet to coalesce into something effective; Sherman’s a quick athlete who can do some nice things on the feet, but isn’t that hard of a hitter and has some downright terrible defense. Sakai should be able to hit the harder and more frequent punches of the fight, and while Sherman is fairly durable, he probably can’t withstand a prolonged beating. The pick is Sakai via second-round knockout. ODDS: Sakai (-270), Sherman (+230)Welterweights
Sergio Moraes (13-3-1) vs. Ben Saunders (22-9-2): Moraes is hitting his ceiling, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu standout and Brazilian fan favorite has had a surprisingly successful UFC career, winning seven of his 10 bouts. Moraes’ jiu-jitsu is obviously his strongest skill, but he also has an unorthodox striking game that’s shockingly effective, mostly thanks to Moraes’ natural feel and timing. Moraes should have a fun matchup against longtime action favorite Saunders, who’s firmly in the decline phase, but still dangerous; Saunders has always been a bit of a glass cannon, but in recent years, his durability has faded to the point where he can’t have the all-out wars he used to. Still, I’m not sure what Moraes can do with Saunders. He may just control things on the ground, but Saunders is a solid enough grappler to survive and I think Saunders’ considerable size could give Moraes trouble on the feet. Saunders’ game has obvious flaws, particularly at this point in his career, but I’m not sure Moraes is the guy to exploit any of them. The pick is Saunders via decision. ODDS: Moraes (-280), Saunders (+240)Women’s Flyweights
Mayra Bueno Silva (4-0) vs. Gillian Robertson (5-2): Canada’s Robertson has been a pleasant surprise since coming off Season 26 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Robertson’s still extremely raw, but she’s shown an aggressive grappling game that’s resulted in two wins in two UFC bouts, including a particularly vicious armbar win over Emily Whitmire. She’s a late addition to this card against Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series alum Silva, who comes from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background. Silva’s your standard-issue Brazilian women’s prospect, showing some skills but mostly just blowing through athletically overmatched opponents. Robertson’s the much more proven prospect and might be the better fighter, but I’ll take Silva here. This could be a fight like J.J. Aldrich’s win over Polyana Viana at UFC 227, where the fundamental striker keeps the more aggressive athlete at bay, but I haven’t seen that type of well-roundedness from Robertson just yet. These two will look to match up strength for strength, and I’ll take the better athlete. The pick is Silva by first-round submission. ODDS: Robertson (-120), Bueno Silva (+100)Middleweights
Thales Leites (27-9) vs. Hector Lombard (34-9-1): Rio’s Leites has announced this will be his last fight, and the timing’s right. Leites did well to bounce back from his first UFC run, which was effectively over after his legendarily horrible middleweight title loss to Anderson Silva, but in recent years, Leites made his UFC comeback and turned into a top middleweight, supplementing his always-strong grappling game with some dangerous striking. But Leites has slowed down in his late thirties and essentially been forced to revert to his old grappling-heavy style, only now without as much athleticism to make things effective. Leites faces Lombard, who hasn’t officially won a fight in four and a half years, but has managed to stick around. Part of that is still Lombard’s residual name value, while the other is that his losses have all been relatively close affairs, whether it’s split decisions or fights that Lombard is winning until he loses. This fight basically depends on Leites’s ability to get things to the ground, which is an open question, given that he’s the strongest wrestler Lombard has faced in a while. But despite his lack of recent success -- as well as being 40 in Cuban years -- Lombard still looks like the stronger athlete, so I’ll call for him to keep the fight standing and hit the harder shots. This won’t be a pretty fight, and it’s not an easy call, but the pick is Lombard via decision. ODDS: Lombard (-120), Leites (+100)Welterweights
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (19-5) vs. Luigi Vendramini (8-0): I still don’t understand why the UFC doesn’t get behind dos Santos. Since losing his UFC debut via split decision, Zaleski is undefeated, and he’s not even a boring-but-talented fighter. He’s a wild striker who has a record dotted with impressive knockouts and three-round brawls. This was originally supposed to be a bout against similarly overlooked welterweight Belal Muhammad that was slotted frustratingly low on the card, but with Muhammad out, dos Santos should style on newcomer and countryman Luigi Vendramini. At 22, Vendramini’s worth the flier, but he’s faced a weak slate of competition and hasn’t looked outstanding, so he’s in over his head here. Anything’s possible, but this looks like a first-round knockout for dos Santos. ODDS: dos Santos (-465), Vendramini (+370)Women’s Strawweights
Livia Renata Souza (11-1) vs. Alex Chambers (5-4): The long-awaited debut of former Invicta strawweight champ Souza opens things up. Not only does Souza have the charisma and the swagger to be a cult favorite, but she also has the talent to be a contender, as she hasn’t been tested much outside of her lone loss -- a controversial split decision against Angela Hill. Souza’s background is in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but she has a solid striking game, as well, and the whole package is probably too much for Australia’s Chambers. She hasn’t done much in the UFC, outside of a comeback submission win against Kailin Curran. Chambers is a fine grappler but athletically overmatched at this level, and this fight should provide further proof. The pick is Souza via first-round knockout, but this could just as easily be a one-sided grappling match. ODDS: Souza (-700), Chambers (+500)Related Articles
