We gonna bring the striking to the next level. Witness Sunday InshAllah @ufc @UFCEurope @Firas_Zahabi pic.twitter.com/1CuHxzBClG
— Nasrat Haqparast (@Nasrat_mma) July 19, 2018
Lightweights
Nasrat Haqparast (8-2) vs. Marc Diakiese (12-2)
Odds: Diakiese (-170), Haqparast (+150)
The year 2017 was a disappointing year for British prospect Diakiese, to say the least. The Doncaster native entered the year as one of the brightest lightweight prospects on the roster, coming off of UFC wins against Lukasz Sajewski and Frankie Perez. Both fights saw Diakiese have to overcome losing parts of an ugly wrestling match, but Diakiese left both fights with a victory, including a knockout of Sajewski. But when UFC rolled into London in 2017, and Diakiese was matched up with Finnish grappler Teemu Packalen, Diakiese showed what he could be at his best, obliterating Packalen with a vicious knockout in just 30 seconds. The Diakiese hype train had officially left the station, and going forward, the UFC seemed to start putting its weight behind Diakiese, giving him a plum spot on the TUF 25 finale to showcase his wares against Drakkar Klose. And, well, everything went downhill from there. Klose was able to drag Diakiese into an ugly grind and earn a split decision win, and at UFC 219, Diakiese was winning a workmanlike fight against Dan Hooker before suddenly finding himself tapping to a guillotine choke. Diakiese's still an elite prospect, and his losses seem more due to him not fighting at maximum effectiveness rather than any lack of technical skill, but two losses are two losses, and leave Diakiese in the position of needing to retool. It'll be interesting to see how he approaches things against Afghan-German prospect Nasrat Haqparast.
At just 22 years-old, Haqparast is definitely a prospect to watch. Ahead of his UFC debut last year, I watched a few of Haqparast's pre-UFC fights in chronological order, and I wasn't particularly impressed; Haqparast had some natural grappling skill, but was a wild striker on the feet who figured to get lit up by top-flight competition. But as I kept watching fights, I was taken aback by Haqparast's improvements from fight to fight, as he'd supplemented his grappling game with a striking set that, while still overly aggressive, was way more functional than it had been in the past. Haqparast was put in a tough position in his UFC debut, facing longtime Bellator contender Marcin Held in Held's home country of Poland, but acquitted himself well and had his moments in losing the decision. Given his youth, Haqparast is way ahead of the development curve, and if UFC handles him properly, he could be the kind of talent that headlines these European cards before long; that does seem like a big if, though.
Given what I see in Haqparast, and given that UFC should theoretically be showcasing their German fighters on this card, I'm a bit confused by the matchmaking here, unless UFC just values giving Diakiese a bounce-back win over all of that. Haqparast's chances at victory rely on his ability to get a clinch or wrestling game going, but I'm operating under the assumption that for as flawed as Diakiese's grappling can sometimes be, he'll be physically powerful enough to handle things whenever Haqparast seeks to initiate a clinch. And if that's true, Haqparast is left trying to strike with Diakiese, and as improved as his striking game is, both Haqparast's aggression and Diakiese's natural power seem like a recipe for a Diakiese knockout. On the plus side, UFC does seem to be honoring their typical four-fight contracts, so Haqparast should stick on the roster and get some bounce-back wins as he develops. In general, though, this does seem like a waste of possibly their best German talent. My pick is Diakiese via second-round knockout.
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