Middleweight
Thiago Santos (16-5) vs. Anthony Smith (28-12)ODDS: Santos (-270), Smith (+230)
ANALYSIS: There will be some heat thrown here. The 34-year-old Santos has emerged as one of the biggest hitters in the middleweight division, with his dexterous kicking and powerful punching. Meanwhile, Smith, 29, has pieced together a surprising and wildly entertaining 4-1 mark in the UFC. More recently, in his 2017 wins over Andrew Sanchez and Hector Lombard, he pulled off consecutive, comeback third-round knockouts to win. Offensively, he does a little bit of everything and makes up for what he lacks with standing slickness or defensive grappling.
Santos is rigid and tall in his forward march, leading with his thudding and varied kicking attack and using it to set up crushing punches; he lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute while only eating 2.06. It becomes a question of how quickly Smith may be able to operate in this fight. Even if he beat a hitter like Lombard in September, he still had to come back from the brink, and more importantly, he ate a ton of kicking offense from the smaller man. “Lionheart” has the power to hurt the upright Santos, who often eats flush counterpunches, but the Brazilian will work to march into medium range and go hunting.
In his recent improvements, however, Smith has become a sneaky lithe grappler on the floor, even when he has given up takedowns. The best plan for Smith would be to try to crowd Santos quickly before he can establish his kicks, get comfortable and use his own stout dirty boxing to get a takedown. “Marreta” remains a major liability off of his back and Smith’s guard passing, elbows and submission skills could net him a surprise victory in this one.
A Smith upset would not shock me at all here, but the most likely outcome is Santos simply landing too hard too soon before the American can launch his standard third-round comeback. Santos lands big with the feet and hands, banging out Smith in an entertaining five to seven minutes.
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