Preview: UFC 266 Prelims

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Welterweights

NR | Matthew Semelsberger (8-3, 2-1 UFC) vs. NR | Martin Sano (4-2-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Semelsberger (-485), Sano (+385)

It is always good to have friends. Sano is not the worst fighter to ever be under UFC contract, but it is relatively obvious that he is only here because of his friendship with Nick Diaz. Sano has not fought since a 2017 bout in Bellator, and his last win came in 2014. Sano has some fine ideas as a scrapper who looks to wade in and grapple with his opponents, but thus far, his bigger opportunities have seen him look either out of his depth athletically or lack the cardio to go particularly deep into his bouts. On the plus side, Sano has had four and a half years to up his athleticism and his gas tank, so maybe something will pop in his Octagon debut.

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Semelsberger is an interesting prospect, though he is still clearly a work in progress. A former football player at Marist College, Semelsberger obviously has some size and athleticism with which to work, but his pre-UFC bouts were a bit messy, as he seemingly tried different ideas until something worked. In the UFC, “Semi the Jedi” had the advantage of being matched with two of the lesser athletes on the roster in Carlton Minus and Jason Witt, but he hit a clear wall against Kalinn Williams in June. This seems to be a return to more of the Minus-Witt tier of opposition for Semelsberger, and he should be able to impose his will as a result, even if Sano seems durable and dogged enough that it may take a while. The pick is Semelsberger via second-round stoppage.

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