Lightweights
Joel Alvarez (17-2) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1)ODDS: Alvarez (-155), Yakovlev (+135)
Given how his UFC debut went, it comes as a bit of a shock that Alvarez is on a two-fight winning streak inside the UFC. The Spaniard racked up a bunch of wins in his home country, but it was unclear how his game plan would translate against better competition. “El Fenomeno” would basically use his giant frame to throw a lot of kicks and seemingly rely on his opponent to take him down, at which point he could clamp on some manner of choke. It felt like a risky proposition against stiffer opposition, and Alvarez’s chances for success looked even worse after he got the Octagon call against Damir Ismagulov. Faced with a much better fighter everywhere, Alvarez seemed content to shut down, stay defensive and coast to a decision loss. About seven minutes into Alvarez’s next bout against Danilo Belluardo, it appeared that he was on his way to another uninspiring loss. However, Alvarez suddenly turned Belluardo around on the ground and ended the bout within seconds with some brutal ground-and-pound. While it was an impressive comeback, it still figured to lead to a loss against the much more historically effective Joseph Duffy, but the Irishman managed to get caught in a guillotine and tapped out shortly thereafter. Alvarez just might be a much trickier fighter on the ground than context suggests, and this fight against Yakovlev should help provide a benchmark. Yakovlev is an accomplished grappler in his own right, but he is stuck between weight classes—too weak at welterweight but heavy enough that he seems to absolutely drain his frame in order to cut down to lightweight. Still, the Russian should be able to outwrestle Alvarez without much difficulty. It then becomes a matter of whether or not Alvarez can submit him while he does so. He will be in danger throughout, but the pick is for Yakovlev to stay safe and grind out the decision win.