John Brannigan/Sherdog illustration
Flyweights
Raulian Paiva (19-3) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-3)Paiva has been a pleasant surprise since he appeared on the Brazilian version of Dana White’s Contender Series. Paiva's pre-UFC resume was more based on quantity than quality and he scraped by with a split decision to earn a contract, so expectations were not particularly high. However, he has flashed a surprisingly potent set of skills. While his thin frame means he can be overpowered, Paiva has shown some fast hands and strong scrambling ability that has given his opponents fits. Unfortunately, that did not translate into any wins in his first two UFC bouts, as Kai Kara-France earned a somewhat controversial decision against him before he suffered a fight-ending cut early in his bout against Rogerio Bontorin. Still, he scored a knockout over Mark De La Rosa in a fun bout in February and looks to follow up on that performance against a Kazakh newcomer. Zhumagulov has certainly earned this shot—his last three fights were wins over former UFC title contender Ali Bagautinov and fellow roster members Tyson Nam and Tagir Ulanbekov—and should be a fun fighter to watch. Zhumagulov takes a while to warm up, but by the second round, he has been a reliably sharp striker who is willing to overwhelm his opponents with volume. There are some clear holes in Zhumagulov’s game, as he is not a quick athlete and opponents have been able to take him down easily, but he should be able to hang around as a threat as the UFC looks to rebuild the flyweight division. Paiva should be able to get off to a fast start while Zhumagulov finds his groove, but the newcomer should be able to take over by the end of the fight, even if Paiva’s willingness to wrestle is a concern. The pick is for Paiva to take a narrow decision win.
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