Preview: UFC 249 ‘Ferguson vs. Gaethje’

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Welterweights

Anthony Pettis (22-10, -130) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-14, +110): Pettis back in 2013 was in full “Showtime” mode as he ascended towards the lightweight title, and Cerrone was in his own archetypal form, taking every fight available and somehow struggling in the first round of all of them. That included their first encounter, as Pettis got to work quickly, damaged Cerrone with his flashy offense and put away “Cowboy” with a kick to the body. A lot has happened in those ensuing seven-plus years, yet things have still managed to wind up right back where they started. Pettis’ loose and flashy style eventually got figured out, and while the former lightweight champion has never come close to recapturing the glory of his peak, he has stopped trying to be something he is not and reverted to that “Showtime” style after a few years in the wilderness. Cerrone has continued to polish his game over the years but remained a similar fighter throughout, and just when it looked like he was figuring out those slow starts, the all-time leader in UFC fights found himself losing quickly to Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor. Now is as good a time as any for a rematch, this time at welterweight, and despite both men being known quantities, this is surprisingly difficult to call. A lot of that is that Pettis is the one who fell off much sooner and much sharper; dynamics do not tend to change much in rematches, but it still feels odd to favor Pettis given that he has not been truly relevant in quite some time. Meanwhile, Cerrone was building towards another run at the lightweight title as recently as last year. Both men’s fights are increasingly kill-or-be-killed in nature, and if this comes down to a shot-for-shot affair, Pettis is still probably the harder hitter and the more durable fighter, particularly now that he is once again willing to pull the trigger and let the rest work itself out. The pick is Pettis via second-round knockout.

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Heavyweights

Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1, -310) vs. Alexey Oleynik (58-13-1, +255): Only at heavyweight could a battle of 42-year-olds seem relevant and fairly interesting. Through 2017, Werdum was chugging along on the periphery of the heavyweight title picture; he lost the strap to Stipe Miocic in one-sided fashion so there was not much desire for a rematch, but Werdum put together enough wins—and his decision loss to Alistair Overeem was controversial enough—that he remained a concern. Then 2018 rolled around, and two things happened: Werdum suffered a surprising loss to Alexander Volkov and then failed a drug test later in the year, keeping him out of action until now. Oleynik has had a successful career going all the way back to 1996 thanks to an unorthodox style that brings new meaning to the word “anti-separatist,” as he relies on an array of obscure chokes that keeps managing to catch opponents off-guard. On the feet, “The Boa Constrictor” throws enough heat to remain dangerous and continue keeping opponents on the defensive. He will have to rely on that here, as Werdum is one of the best grapplers in heavyweight history and should be able to cancel out all of Oleynik’s best tricks. While Werdum’s tendency to sometimes trade defense for offense and charge forward could get him absolutely blasted here, it is more likely that he can pick his spots and break down Oleynik, taking advantage of the Russian’s ever-decreasing gas tank. The pick is Werdum via second-round stoppage.

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Women’s Strawweights

Carla Esparza (15-6, -160) vs. Michelle Waterson (17-7, +140): This is an excellent pairing that is flying under the radar, which is standard for an Esparza bout. The UFC’s inaugural strawweight champ got the villain edit on her season of “The Ultimate Fighter” and is not a particularly outsized personality, so she does not get much credit for riding her excellent wrestling game to one of the best records in the division. She will almost surely be last among whatever options are available to the UFC, but there is still an outside chance she can get back into the title picture, unless Joanna Jedrzejczyk or Tatiana Suarez—the women responsible for two blowout losses on Esparza’s resume—make their way to the top of the division. After winning both of her fights in 2019, Esparza starts 2020 by taking on Waterson. Similar to Esparza, “The Karate Hottie” has overcome a lack of physical size to have a surprising amount of success, though she has gone about it in a different fashion. She is at her best when she is able to keep a safe distance and use her speed to frustrate and snipe at her opponents. That lends itself to an interesting dynamic. Each of these women is used to being the much smaller fighter, so things might seem a bit off from their usual game plan. Esparza should be looking to close distance and get her chain wrestling going, while Waterson should try to peck away from a distance and stay out of danger. It is virtually impossible to tell which one will prevail, even if things could turn into a blowout in practice if one can get in gear before the other. Esparza has been the much more consistent fighter throughout her career in terms of her approach, so she gets the nod, even if there is some concern that Waterson’s superior athleticism can neutralize her aggression. The pick is Esparza via decision.

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Middleweights

Ronaldo Souza (26-8, -120) vs. Uriah Hall (15-9, +100): Editor's note: The bout was canceled Friday night after it was discovered that Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza had tested positive for COVID-19. The news was first reported by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.

Souza finally got old in 2019. His fall has not been depressingly brutal like those of peers like Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold—the Brazilian’s chin has remained sturdy—but after slowing down the last few years, his waning output has now become a liability. A surprising loss to Jack Hermansson saw Souza consistently get beaten to the punch and the takedown, which led to his seeking success up a weight class at 205 pounds. That run ended before it truly got started. Souza’s main event against Jan Blachowicz was five rounds of low-output agony, with Blachowicz earning the scorecards in a fight that neither man truly won. Everyone’s favorite human alligator has now decided to return to middleweight, and Hall is the man tasked with welcoming him back. Nearly seven years into his UFC run, Hall remains as vexing as ever, mixing long stretches of inactivity and disinterest with some of the most spectacular bursts of violence in the history of the sport. Hall is often compared to a video game character thanks to his explosive techniques, but beyond that, it does feel like he is charging up some sort of meter as he takes abuse, releasing his anger only once he is pushed past some sort of breaking point. Hall got after it in his last bout against Antonio Carlos Jr., but that may have been a response to the Brazilian starting things at his own brisk pace. In a way, Souza’s waning output may actually help him here. If this stays as a sparring match, Hall is likely to simply stay comfortable and never get motivated enough to become dangerous; and Souza’s elite ground game should result in plenty of success if he goes that route, even if “Jacare” has wrestled less and less as part of those efforts to conserve his gas tank. If Hall suddenly fixes his mental approach and is aggressive from the jump, a resume-making win is there for the taking, but that has been the story of the New Yorker’s career. The pick is Souza via uninspiring decision.

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