Welterweights
#14 WW | Geoff Neal (12-2, -250) vs. NR | Mike Perry (13-5, +210): This welterweight banger caps a strong preliminary card. Neal’s UFC career thus far has more or less been one breakout performance after another. He did not particularly stand out among the wave of signings on the first edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, but by his second appearance inside the Octagon, “Handz of Steel” was showing off a deep striking arsenal that outgunned one of the best brawlers in the division. Neal’s 2019 campaign has seen the Fortis MMA standout shoot his way up the ranks. His victory over Belal Muhammad was an absolute delight, with Neal adjusting to adjustments in order to stay ahead of a game opponent, and his July win over Niko Price saw him survive a war against one of the welterweight division’s hardest hitters. He gets another tough out here against Perry, who has slowly been closing the gap between his talent and his name value. The human embodiment of Florida, Perry is still a fairly straight-ahead power puncher, but he has methodically built upon his strengths to the point that he can go toe-to-toe with any of the fighters who think they can impose their will upon him. That should be enough to shut down a lot of his opponent’s weapons, but Neal has shown the ability to stick to a smart game plan and should be able to pick apart Perry from range, especially given his speed and reach advantages. There is also some concern that a badly broken nose may affect Perry’s previously unlimited durability, which only increases Neal’s chances. The pick is Neal via decision.Advertisement
Women’s Bantamweights
#2 WBW | Ketlen Vieira (10-0, -165) vs. #10 WBW | Irene Aldana (11-5, +145): Can Vieira finish what she started? She seemed like a perfectly fine pickup by the UFC in late 2017, but as the promotion opened up its women’s flyweight division and talent trickled down to 125 pounds, the Brazilian quickly established herself as a potential title contender. A win over Sara McMann—a woman against whom Vieira stayed patient until she reversed a takedown and scored a submission—truly put “Fenomeno” on the map, and after a follow-up win where she mostly worked Cat Zingano, she looked to be in line for a shot at Amanda Nunes. Injuries have subsequently kept Vieira out of action for nearly two years, but with a win here, she is in a position to pick up right back where she left off. Meanwhile, Aldana has quietly risen through the ranks during Vieira’s layoff after a rough start to her UFC career. A skilled boxer with some solid grappling to back it up, Aldana’s promotional debut against Leslie Smith laid a lot of her problems bare: She is a bit plodding and has trouble handling quicker and more aggressive opponents. Since then, Aldana’s fights have been a double-edged sword. Her only losses have been narrow decisions that easily could have gone in her favor, but she also has yet to have the type of dominant win that puts her head and shoulders above a vast swath of bantamweight hopefuls. This should be an interesting comeback fight for Vieira. Aldana has rare size for the division, and given Vieira’s recent knee injuries, there is a chance that the Brazilian contender is too slow moving forward to get her offense going. Aldana could score the upset, but considering Vieira’s doggedness and durability, it is tough to pick against her eventually making things a grind and scoring a decision victory.Middleweights
#10 MW | Ian Heinisch (13-2, -150) vs. #14 MW | Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1, +130): This is an interesting fight that should help sort out some things at middleweight. Heinisch has been surprisingly successful since coming off the 2018 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, seemingly through sheer force of will. A relentless wrestler, Heinisch managed to either scare off or break Cezar Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Jr. in his first two UFC bouts. However, his last appearance against Derek Brunson raised some concerns. Against a surprisingly calm version of Brunson, Heinisch was never quite able to get his wrestling going, leaving him without much of a backup option to make an impact on the fight despite his best efforts. “The Hurricane” will look to prove that he is not a flash in the pan against Akhmedov, who now has a chance to get a breakthrough win at middleweight. Akhmedov’s losses at 170 pounds have aged well in retrospect, but even so, he was still a frustrating prospect. He would look excellent early while throwing power behind everything, only to inevitably flag and start losing badly in every third round he made it to. Things have gone a bit better now that he has moved up to middleweight. He is obviously more cautious in conserving his gas tank, though he still winds up slowing a decent amount as the fight goes on. If Akhmedov can prevent Heinisch from wrestling early, the Russian should be able to take this despite those cardio concerns, given that he is the much better and more powerful striker. While Akhmedov is a strong offensive wrestler, his defensive wrestling has often been much worse, and in general, it is hard to pick him against someone with an endless gas tank like Heinisch. The pick is Heinisch via decision, though Akhmedov could wind up proving a lot about himself here.Welterweights
NR | Matt Brown (21-16, -345) vs. NR | Ben Saunders (22-12-2, +285): Old-school “Ultimate Fighter” grads clash in what should be a fun burst of violence. Brown is not quite done yet. After a rough 2016 campaign, Brown teased retirement following a November 2017 win over Diego Sanchez but instead decided to press on, even after a torn ACL has kept him out of action for the last two years. He will take on Saunders, whose fights are still entertaining for as long as they last, though the last part of that equation is becoming a bigger and bigger concern. Saunders is as offensively potent as ever, combining muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu to some dynamic results, but after years of wars, his lack of defense has become a liability due to an increasingly suspect chin. Saunders might be able to scare off Brown for a bit, and Jake Ellenberger’s 2016 win over the Ohioan shows that he can still be beaten with one solid body shot. However, the pathological violence that Brown brings to every bout should eventually be enough to put away Saunders. The pick is Brown via second-round knockout.Finish Reading » UFC Fight Pass Prelims
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