Women’s Strawweights

Claudia Gadelha (16-3) vs. Nina Ansaroff (9-5): Joanna Jedrzejczyk getting dethroned opened up a path for Gadelha to earn another title shot, but unfortunately, she has not evolved much as a fighter. Not that she necessarily needed to, given that she is clearly a Top-3 strawweight, but it would be nice to see Gadelha shore up her obvious weakness. She is an absolute powerhouse of a grappler and not a bad striker on top of that, but her gas tank constantly costs her later rounds. While she has changed up her training situation and tried to improve, the same problems keep popping up. In her most recent appearance, an advantageous style matchup, many observers thought that Carla Esparza eked out a decision after yet another poor third round from Gadelha. She now faces Ansaroff, who has done an excellent job of improving into a solid power kickboxer over the course of her UFC career and is riding a three-fight win streak as a result; yet this fight is basically another referendum on Gadelha as a fighter. Gadelha should be able to take this fight to the mat at will, so it basically becomes a test to see if she does not fool around on the feet and, more importantly, if she can outwork another tough opponent without tiring herself out. Ansaroff winning the third round would not be shocking in the slightest, but the pick is Gadelha via decision. ODDS: Gadelha (-300), Ansaroff (+250)

Lightweights

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-3) vs. Gilbert Burns (13-3): This is an excellently made fight, pitting two natural grapplers trying to round out their games against each other. It has been a slow process for Quebec’s Aubin-Mercier to turn the corner. A talented judoka whose striking game always looked a bit clunky, Aubin-Mercier relied on his grappling skills against overmatched opposition and never seemed to evolve -- until a 2016 fight with Drew Dober in which he suddenly showed some much-improved standup. Now that Aubin-Mercier has found himself facing stronger opposition, things have been a mixed bag, as “The Quebec Kid” does not seem to handle pressure well. He still managed to score a knockout in the clinch against Evan Dunham, but Alexander Hernandez mostly overwhelmed him, leaving Aubin-Mercier to look for a rebound win against Burns. The 32-year-old Burns is an elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu player and used that to great effect early on, but he often struggles to get things to the mat. As a result, he has often had to rely on a power striking game that remains a work in progress. Burns is capable of some brutal knockouts, as he showed against Jason Saggo and Dan Moret, but the much quicker Dan Hooker managed to blast the Hard Knocks 365 rep and get him out of there without much trouble. Aubin-Mercier feels like the more functional fighter overall, but he is much more likely to cede pressure; and Burns is at his best when he can stalk down his foe. Even though the grappling exchanges figure to be somewhat of a wash, Burns is the more dangerous fighter if the two decide to lock up. The pick is Burns via decision. ODDS: Aubin-Mercier (-140), Burns (+120)

Women’s Flyweights

Katlyn Chookagian (11-1) vs. Jessica Eye (13-6): Now that the UFC has added her natural division of flyweight, Eye seems to be turning things around, as she has won two straight at 125 pounds after dropping four bouts at bantamweight. Outside of focusing a bit more on her strong wrestling game, it is hard to say how Eye has improved. Her game remains less than the sum of its parts, as her lack of aggression and poor fight IQ tend to waste a well-rounded and athletic skill set, but those individual skills have worked better against flyweight competition thus far. That may come to an end here against a fellow flyweight contender in Chookagian. The 29-year-old Chookagian basically fights like an ersatz Holly Holm, constantly moving at range and picking away at her opponents, even though she possesses none of the occasional power of the former bantamweight champ. However, Chookagian has still been fast enough that most opponents have trouble tracking her down, and if her one-dimensional style makes for a bit of an IQ test, well, insert your own joke about Eye here. The pick is Chookagian via decision. ODDS: Chookagian (-170), Eye (+150)

Middleweights

Elias Theodorou (15-2) vs. Eryk Anders (11-2): A former University of Alabama linebacker, Anders entered the year as a fascinating but raw middleweight prospect; and the UFC basically spent 2018 trying to ruin him. A main event spot against Lyoto Machida was a worthy gamble that almost paid off, since Machida has trouble nowadays with any sort of athlete, but over five rounds, Anders looked very much like a high-level athlete with very little depth of skill. That idea continued with his next fight against Tim Williams. Anders eventually put the fight away in the third round, but Anders had a surprising amount of trouble making things work against a veteran grinder. So of course, the UFC rushed him into another main event, this time against Thiago Santos, where Anders had his moments but suffered a ton of damage. He gets another tough opponent to close out his campaign. Theodorou is a man of contradictions. He is a pretty man with a bunch of charisma, but his fighting style is extremely ugly to watch, completely built around grinding clinches and awkward range kicking attempts. Anders might be enough of an athlete to simply overpower Theodorou. However, given his struggles with Williams, if Anders looks to clinch up and wrestle, he will probably be playing right into Theodorou’s hands. It will not be pretty at all, since it is not like Theodorou is particularly dynamic when he takes over a fight, but the Canadian simply has many more options to work with if Anders is going to provide grappling control and little else. The pick is Theodorou via decision. ODDS: Anders (-115), Theodorou (-105)

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