Featherweights
Jason Knight (20-5) vs. Jordan Rinaldi (13-6): It has been a wild UFC run for Mississippi’s Knight. He came into the UFC as a submission artist who was content to hunt for low-percentage moves from the bottom, which did not figure to translate well at the highest level. When it did not, he suddenly transitioned into a fearless, trash-talking pressure striker, leading to his informal “Hick Diaz” moniker. After stringing together four wins, Knight rightfully earned a shot at joining the featherweight elite against Ricardo Lamas, but Lamas blew open every hole in Knight’s game en route to a quick finish; it has been all downhill since. Knight has not responded well to adversity. Gabriel Benitez stayed patient and picked him apart, while Makwan Amirkhani’s wrestling managed to transform Knight back into that low-percentage submission hunter who gives away rounds. Thankfully for Knight, Rinaldi is a fine fighter, but this should be where “The Kid” finally gets off the schneid. Rinaldi is a solid wrestler and has some effective boxing, but in general, he is one of the more nondescript fighters on the roster. There is a chance that Knight is just mentally broken at this point, but provided that is not the case, he should be able to overwhelm Rinaldi on the feet. The pick is Knight via decision. ODDS: Knight (-275), Rinaldi (+235)Women’s Flyweights
Sijara Eubanks (3-2) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (22-14): At least people know who Eubanks is now. The Maryland-based grappler had a surprising run through the women’s flyweight championship season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” making it all the way to the final before weight-cut issues took her out of the running. While that cost her a shot at becoming flyweight champion, she remained near the front of the line, and there was talk of her headlining this card against Valentina Shevchenko before the UFC thankfully found a better option. Now Eubanks is on the undercard, taking on a veteran grappler in Modafferi, one of the more beloved figures in the sport. Modafferi looked done a few years ago, as the sport was evolving past her unathletic submission game, but a change in camp gave her an effective if funky striking game; and a cut down to flyweight gave her career new life. This is Eubanks’ fight to lose. She already beat Modafferi to earn her way into that title fight, and the dynamic has not changed much. Eubanks faces a less athletic grappler she should be able to physically overwhelm. I still have questions about how Eubanks fares against more mobile strikers, but she is the pick here via decision. ODDS: Eubanks (-550), Modafferi (+425)Featherweights
Julio Arce (15-2) vs. Sheymon Moraes (10-2): Moraes finally seems to be breaking through after a few lost few years. The Brazilian muay Thai stylist was a top prospect who saw his career stall due to inactivity in the World Series of Fighting; and drawing an elite talent in Zabit Magomedsharipov in his UFC debut did not help Moraes get his tenure off on the right foot. After a one-sided win over Matt Sayles, Moraes might be ready to work his way up the ranks in earnest. He takes on fellow underrated prospect Arce, who has impressed since making his UFC debut earlier this year. The Queens, New York, native has posted quietly effective wins over Dan Ige and Daniel Teymur behind a mobile boxing game and strong takedown defense. This is probably the hardest fight on the card to call. Arce could out-quick Moraes on the feet and pick him apart, but there is also the question of how much of a step up in competition Moraes represents over Ige and Teymur. Moraes looked good enough against Sayles that I am willing to take the flier on him as a top-tier talent. The pick is Moraes via decision. ODDS: Arce (-400), Moraes (+325)Welterweights
Lyman Good (19-4) vs. Ben Saunders (22-10-2): Good finally gets a shot to fight at home in Madison Square Garden. That he gets to fight at all is another bonus. This will be just the third fight for the former Bellator MMA champion since he was signed by the UFC in 2015. Good has a solid combination of power striking and strong wrestling, and he easily could have won a split decision against the red-hot Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos his last time out. After a late opponent change, Good now faces Saunders, who is seemingly nearing the end of a long career as a reliable action fighter. Saunders’ combination of long muay Thai and venomous submission skills has served him well, but his durability finally seems to be betraying him. That is the key here. Saunders’ long frame should give Good some issues and his grappling ability should neutralize some of the Team Tiger Schulmann standout’s wrestling, but at some point, Good figures to hit a punch that will put Saunders’ lights out. The pick is Good via second-round knockout. ODDS: Good (-600), Saunders (+450)Last Fights » UFC Fight Pass Prelims