FX Prelims
Women’s Strawweights:
Carla Esparza (13-5) vs. Tatiana Suarez (6-0): The featured prelim on FX is the biggest test yet for Suarez, the quickest-rising prospect at strawweight. An Olympic wrestling hopeful who had those dreams dashed due to thyroid cancer, Suarez has been able to fall back on that wrestling skill to dominate her first three opponents in the UFC. Her striking is still an open question, but it hasn't mattered; Suarez has been both a relentless and talented enough grappler that all of her wins have been one-sided. Suarez gets her first shot at the divisional elite against former champ Esparza, who's put together a solid run in the last year-plus; she's supplemented her own strong chain-wrestling game with some much-improved striking that got her by Cynthia Calvillo in December, and while her last bout against Claudia Gadelha was a decision loss, Esparza acquitted herself much better than anyone expected. If Esparza can keep this fight standing, it becomes interesting, but I don't think that'll happen, as Suarez could be the best wrestler in the entire strawweight division. I think Suarez can get this fight to the mat, and even if she has some struggles in the clinch as she does so, Esparza isn't a hard enough hitter to cause that much damage or win rounds before Suarez can take her down. My pick is Suarez via decision. ODDS: Suarez (-535), Esparza (+420)Bantamweights:
Aljamain Sterling (15-3) vs. Cody Stamann (17-1): Long Island's Sterling was tabbed as a future champ as he rose his way up the ranks, but Sterling's rise to a contender has been more difficult than expected. A supremely talented grappler, Sterling hit a skid as he fell too in love with an inefficient range kicking game; it did take advantage of Sterling's considerable length, but also had the effect of tiring Sterling out in later rounds, which particularly cost him in a 2016 fight against Bryan Caraway. Sterling's since put things together in a more efficient manner, so while a quick knockout loss to Marlon Moraes was a bit damaging, Sterling rebounded with an excellent performance over Brett Johns that reminded just how considerable his talents are. Sterling takes on Michigan's Stamann, whose rise up the bantamweight ladder was much less heralded; Stamann had a late-notice debut on the undercard of UFC 213 and didn't really make a name for himself until an upset over the much more hyped Tom Duquesnoy. Stamann's a stocky, athletic fighter whose combination of pressure and well-roundedness has allowed him to just keep winning rounds, even if it hasn't been in the most dynamic fashion. I think this version of Sterling might be a bit too much of an ask, though; Sterling will have a huge range advantage on the feet, and if Stamann looks to wrestle, I don't think he'll get much accomplished there, either. Stamann's an underappreciated fighter who's impressed in every fight, but I just don't know what he does with this bad style matchup; my pick is Sterling via decision. ODDS: Sterling (-135), Stamann (+115)Bantamweights:
Jimmie Rivera (21-2) vs. John Dodson (20-9): Rivera's June loss to Marlon Moraes was a reminder of just how unfair mixed martial arts can be. Rivera took the long route to bantamweight success, putting together a twenty-fight win streak that spanned nearly a decade; Rivera had a resume worthy of a title shot, but instead wound up facing fellow contender Moraes, who ended Rivera's winning ways in just 33 seconds. Rivera still has the chops to remain a top contender at 135, but that has to start here with a win against a perennial flyweight and bantamweight contender in Dodson. Dodson can be a frustrating fighter, a speed demon with elite athleticism who tends to wait things out and pick his spots much too often, but that was enough to beat everyone he faced at flyweight save Demetrious Johnson. Since moving up to 135, results have been a bit more mixed for Dodson, particularly as his athleticism begins to wane, but he easily could've won his split decision losses to Moraes and John Lineker. This is an interesting matchup on paper; Rivera's an excellent counter-striker, while Dodson's speed and darting style could make things difficult for him in exchanges. The issue is that there may not be a ton of exchanges, given how little Dodson likes to lead the action. I do worry Dodson might still be too fast for Rivera, but with Dodson appearing to slow down and Rivera being the more willing of the two to throw volume, I'll take Rivera via decision, even if I expect this to be a close fight that could go either way. ODDS: Rivera (-145), Dodson (+125)Middleweights:
Charles Byrd (10-4) vs. Darren Stewart (8-3): This won't be the most high-level fight, but the televised prelims kick off with this fun brawl. It took five tries, but Stewart finally got his first UFC win in Liverpool last May. Most fighters don't get that many shots, but Stewart is an exciting enough fighter that the UFC thought it was worth their while to keep him around, as the Brit mostly favors aggression over, well, everything else. Stewart looks for win number two against Texas’ Byrd, who was a standout on last year's season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series and is coming off a successful debut in March. Byrd's a high-level athlete with some decent tools, but can also be too over-aggressive for his own good, which is a reason why this should be entertaining for as long as it lasts. I'll favor Byrd just for having more options, in particular some grappling skills that Stewart doesn't seem to have, and Stewart doesn't seem like the level of fighter that can take advantage of Byrd's mistakes. My pick is Byrd via first-round submission. ODDS: Byrd (-225), Stewart (+185)Finish Reading » Fight Pass Prelims