Middleweights
Uriah Hall (13-8) vs. Paulo Henrique Costa (11-0)
Odds: Costa (-400), Hall (+325)
Like Israel Adesanya, Costa is a scintillating middleweight prospect on a meteoric trajectory. The Brazilian has obliterated three overmatched opponents in the UFC thus far, his best opposition being a shopworn and blown-up Johny Hendricks. “The Eraser” is an absolute specimen, a bricked-up bomber who typically wastes little time in pursuing a quick and violent knockout. He wings crushing power shots with both hands and feet, going to both the body and the head. His ancillary skills and gas tank are still in question, as no one has really been able to test him. His grappling looks suspect, as Oluwale Bamgbose, another poor grappler, nearly choked him out after Costa slipped on a kick. Fending off takedowns and working back to his feet seemed to tire him out badly, but Bamgbose was more gassed. That is to say, Hall is not without chances in this fight. “Primetime” has never lived up to the ridiculously high expectations he had coming off TUF, but he is capable of truly spectacular knockouts with his blend of athleticism and flashy, powerful striking. He has also proven that he can come back from adversity, as he survived what was nearly a 10-7 round one against Krzysztof Jotko before earning the knockout in Round 2. Hall rarely wrestles, but he can catch kicks and turn them into takedowns. The Xtreme Couture rep is heavy and dangerous if he can get on top, and he has the gas tank to go three rounds, which I seriously doubt about Costa. But Hall has never dealt with pressure well, and his chin is not ironclad. If Hall can survive another early onslaught, he’ll put the screws to the gassed Brazilian. But Costa doesn’t let it last long enough, punching Hall out in Round 1.
Bantamweights
Raphael Assuncao (26-5) vs. Rob Font (15-3)
Odds: Assuncao (-170), Font (+150)
Assuncao has beaten everyone he has faced in the last seven years not named TJ Dillashaw, and he is still relegated to undercard duty. I hope he one day gets his title shot, but it’s understandable that he doesn’t get a huge push from the UFC. He does everything well but has a counter-oriented style that makes his fights slow-paced. The Brazilian tends to largely nullify his opponent’s weapons rather than imposing one dominant skill set on them. The Ascension MMA standout is very hard to take down, boasting a 79% takedown defense rate. The BJJ black belt is also virtually impossible to control or threaten on the mat. On the feet, Assuncao snaps hard leg kicks and a potent counter right hand, but he does not throw at a high rate. Font is coming off the best win of his career, starching Thomas Almeida inside two rounds. He is a solid, well-rounded fighter who makes good use of his length. The Team Sityodtong stalwart is a solid boxer. He can switch stances as he pursues his opponents, throws in combination, and can counter effectively. He also attacks the body with digging front kicks. His wrestling is capable and he is dangerous on top with both submissions and ground and pound. Font has been bothered thus far by aggressive, hard-hitting pressure fighters in John Lineker and Pedro Munhoz, but Assuncao doesn’t figure to follow that blueprint. Still, the Brazilian continues to get the better of everyone outside the very top of the division. He slightly outpoints Font with hard counters making up for his lack of volume. Assuncao by split decision is the pick.
Lightweights
Lando Vannata (9-2-1) vs. Drakkar Klose (8-1-1)
Odds: Vannata (-185), Klose (+160)
In terms of wins and losses, Vannata’s UFC career hasn’t turned out the way he would have liked, but he has become appointment viewing for his flashy, all-action style. The Brandon Gibson protégé is coming off a war with Bobby Green in which he nearly stopped “King” multiple times. Vannata is unconventional striker -- carrying his hands low, using tricky head movement, and delivering surprising spinning attacks -- who likes to push a blistering pace. He will punch aggressively in combination in the pocket, but defense is an afterthought, evidenced by the 6.66 significant strikes per minute he absorbs. His background is actually in wrestling, and he can mix takedowns into his attack and defend them well, to boot. He battles Klose, who was just flummoxed by David Teymur. The Michigan native is a suffocating wrestler who also likes his fair share of wall-and-maul. But the MMA Lab product was easily frustrated by Teymur’s movement and unwillingness to throw down with him, so he struggled to get much effective offense going. Vannata is unlikely to get grinded against the fence, but he will certainly engage. In a kickboxing battle in the middle of the cage, Vannata has to have the advantage. He stuffs Klose’s takedowns and outlands him to take a decision.
Welterweights
Curtis Millender (15-3) vs. Max Griffin (14-4)
Odds: Millender (-165), Griffin (+145)
Griffin looked like he was being fed to the wolves in his last fight with Mike Perry. But he showed up, fought to a smart gameplan, and soundly outpointed the golden boy for whom the UFC seemed to be trying to get a rebound win. His lateral movement, sharp counterpunching and power carried him to a badly needed win after losing two of his first three. He is once again paired with a dangerous prospect with a propensity for knockouts in Millender. Griffin doesn’t typically wrestle much, but he may want to pursue that tack here. “Curtious” is a tall, long southpaw who makes excellent use of his reach. Millender hand-fights well, moving his opponent’s guard out of the way of his strikes or stymieing their offensive rhythm. He does not throw at a very high rate, snapping his jab or front kicks out at range. But he counters effectively as opponents try to close distance, meeting them with a left hook or a knee up the middle. And his head kicks are his most dangerous weapon. Millender’s takedown defense has looked suspect in the past, though. Griffin might have success in that area, but this fight was booked to be a kickboxing match. Max “Pain” impressed with his well-executed gameplan against Perry, but Millender is a tough puzzle to solve. Millender by decision is the pick.
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