Preview: UFC 223 ‘Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta’

Women’s Strawweights

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) vs. Felice Herrig (14-6)

THE ODDS: Kowalkiewicz (-185), Herrig (+160). ANALYSIS: Kowalkiewicz recently secured a dominant bounce-back win against Invicta Fighting Championships transplant Jodie Esquibel. This followed her failed title bid against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and a swift, disheartening submission loss to Claudia Gadelha. Herrig, meanwhile, is on a run of four straight wins since her loss to Paige VanZant three years ago. “Lil Bulldog” has accomplished the turnaround with sharper and more powerful boxing, backing it up with quality wrestling and grappling. She is still a little stiff on the feet, and her head gets stationary in protracted exchanges after her initial slip or dip. However, in her most recent win over Cortney Casey-Sanchez, Herrig consistently found a home for her left hook and overhand right. She was aided by the fact that Casey-Sanchez was largely stationary and waited for opportunities to counter. Kowalkiewicz will play no such games. She lands nearly two significant strikes more per minute (5.17) than Herrig (3.31), and her willingness to mix it up in the pocket and throw in combination gives her an edge on most strawweights outside the elite. The Pole does not always have great weight transfer and pushes her punches at times, but she is buoyed by her strength in the clinch, where she really shines. Her knees from the Thai plum and elbows on the fence are truly nasty. Add in an 80 percent takedown defense rate, and you have a recipe for the former title challenger outworking Herrig and walking away with a decision victory.

Lightweights

Evan Dunham (18-6-1) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (10-2)

THE ODDS: Dunham (-150), Aubin-Mercier (+130). ANALYSIS:: Two lightweight southpaws with a penchant for the submission mix it up to kick off the televised prelims. Dunham is inhumanly tough. Look no further for proof than his last fight with Beneil Dariush in which he absorbed two hellacious elbows and then a round-long beating before coming back to force a draw. The longtime Xtreme Couture representative is a solid, high-output boxer with good head movement and counter left hooks and crosses. He is also strong in the clinch, where he continues to find ways to land offense while controlling his opponents. His ground game is more of the same. The Robert Drysdale black belt is constantly looking to pass or land elbows and punches, and Dunham’s wrestling is decent, particularly his 80 percent rate of takedown defense. All this speaks to a consummately well-rounded fighter who can mix it up anywhere with anyone. Aubin-Mercier is younger and a superior athlete. The judo black belt likes stuffing his opponents into the cage before dragging them to the mat, working to the back and sinking a choke. On the feet, he is a powerful, low-output kickboxer with thudding body kicks and a bombing counter cross. He generally does a good job leaning off-line as he fires, but he gets caught in extended exchanges as his chin comes up and he flinches away. The French-Canadian is at his best pot-shotting before transitioning to the mat. Dunham’s age -- he is 36 -- and wear and tear are concerning here, but his grittiness and will have not yet abandoned him. He is much slower of foot and could have a difficult time forcing Aubin-Mercier to engage with him, though. Their wrestling probably cancels out for the most part, so we likely get a close kickboxing battle. “The Quebec Kid” will slide away and land big counters as Dunham tries to walk him down and put a high volume of strikes on him. Dunham would represent the Tristar Gym product’s best win, as the Oregonian has been fighting better men for nearly a decade. Aubin-Mercier’s power will make this close, but Dunham wins on points with output and pressure.

Women’s Flyweights

Bec Rawlings (7-7) vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-3)

THE ODDS: Evans-Smith (-200), Rawlings (+170). ANALYSIS: These women are flyweight transplants, albeit immigrating from two different divisions. Evans-Smith has fought as high as featherweight and figures to have a significant size and strength advantage. This will be amplified by her wrestling background. If she can get on top, she is a handful for most women, and she can do damage with knees in close quarters, as well. When standing, Rawlings prefers to work kicks from long range before looking to close the distance. Her lack of footspeed, footwork and head movement in the pocket means she is not as effective at boxing range. This weakness can cause her to go through bouts of inactivity where she struggles to land effective offense. Rawlings will want to stick and move and capitalize on her speed advantage coming up from strawweight. That is not really her style, though. The Aussie is a swarmer who likes to come forward and throw aggressive combinations punctuated by leg kicks. At 115 pounds, she was accustomed to being the bigger, more physical fighter and could fall back on dragging opponents to the mat and beating them up from top position. In her flyweight debut against another former bantamweight, Jessica-Rose Clark, Rawlings commented on how strong and heavy her opponent was after spending time beneath her. Unless she can control distance in a way we have not seen from her before, she figures to run into the same problem here. If Evans-Smith pursues her wrestling, she will earn a stoppage in the second half of the fight; otherwise, a decision becomes more likely.

Light Heavyweights

Devin Clark (8-2) vs. Mike Rodriguez (9-2)

THE ODDS: Clark (-110), Rodriguez (-110). ANALYSIS: “Slow Mike” Rodriguez comes from the Northeast MMA scene and trains at Lauzon MMA with Joe Lauzon. He enters the UFC after a quick and spectacular flying knee knockout on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He is a huge, long southpaw with powerful kicks. In what little tape is available on him, his takedown defense looked subpar but his submission defense held up. When he is able to get on top, his long frame enables him to drop bone-crushing ground-and-pound. His lack of wrestling could be a problem against Clark, a former junior college national champion. “Brown Bear” does not have a lot of finesse to him on the feet, generally wanting to lunge forward with one big bomb before crashing into the clinch. He has had his chin checked on multiple occasions, which does not bode well against a hitter like Rodriguez. One of these light heavyweights seems destined to wake up with the cageside physician shining a light in his eyes. Rodriguez is more likely to get the job done early, but I like Clark to clinch and wrestle long enough to start wearing out the newcomer. The Jackson-Wink MMA product earns a late-round TKO after a sloppy, ugly fight.