Light Heavyweight
Michal Oleksiejczuk (12-2) vs. Khalil Rountree (6-2)ANALYSIS:
In the middle classes of any UFC division now, given USADA violations, injuries, criminal activity and all the rest, matchmaking is like waiting in a bakery or deli line with your ticket in your hand. You just have to be ready to get called and have a plan if your order gets botched. So here we have Oleksiejczuk, who himself was an injury replacement for Gadhzimurad Antigulov, scheduled to face Ion Cutelaba at UFC 217 in November. During fight week, Cutelaba was flagged for a potential USADA doping violation. As a result, the 22-year-old Pole now makes his debut against a problem of a different kind in Rountree, who was anticipating a showdown with kickboxing ace Gokhan Saki before “The Rebel” went down with a knee injury. Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw striker with some natural pop and does not mind throwing down in the clinch, but he does not seem quite ready to deal with an offensive specimen like Rountree. Just 27 years old, it seems incredibly iffy as to whether or not Rountree is going to break out of his mold as a southpaw bomber, content to throw 100 percent heat on every left hand and every body kick before diving onto supine opponents with deathly hammerfists. He lands a shockingly low 1.4 significant strikes a minute, but when he connects clean, it results in critical damage. However, from his time on “The Ultimate Fighter 23” going forward, it has not been his reckless striking deficits that have cost “The War Horse.” From his loss on the show to Cory Hendricks and his finale loss to Andrew Sanchez to the Tyson Pedro domination, his complete reliance on athleticism over technique, especially in defensive grappling situations, always gets him into trouble. Oleksiejczuk has shown some at least basic ground ability and would be well served to press it early and often, as his usual tactic of diving into the pocket behind heavy, single southpaw attacks will only serve to get him lit up quick and fast. Rountree remains an enigma, but Oleksiejczuk is a solid mark for him to earn a third straight devastating knockout, if largely because the style matchup camouflages many of his weaknesses.
Featherweight
Rick Glenn (20-4-1) vs. Myles Jury (16-2)ODDS: Jury (-240), Glenn (+200)
ANALYSIS: Two featherweights in flux meet here, dealing with long injury histories and recent camp changes. The 29-year-old Jury returned at UFC 210 in April, bopping Mike de la Torre easily and impressively in the first round. Now, he has reunited with Alliance MMA after leaving the respected outfit in August 2015. Glenn, 28, also enjoyed a California camp, as he relocated from Roufusport in Milwaukee to Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, noting that he feels physically healthier training with more fighters his size. While the southpaw Glenn is the taller man by two inches, Jury will have a three-inch reach advantage, which suits both men’s skills anyhow. Jury will jab and kick from the outside and prey on opportunistic takedowns, while Glenn is best when he can cover distance, come inside and do more damage with knees and elbows from collar tie positions. “The Gladiator” lands 5.6 significant strikes per minute while eating 4.82; this just shows the extreme polarity between his short-notice debut 15 months ago at 155 pounds -- in a bout where Evan Dunham beat him like a drum -- and his extreme, gruesome beatdown of Gavin Tucker at UFC 215 in September. However, the stat still accurately reflects Glenn’s style and the general level of activity and risk involved. In this case, he is the slower man charging the fleeter counterfighter, and he is at a wrestling disadvantage. Glenn’s haphazard approach to offensive wrestling is how he went 0-for-11 on takedown attempts in his squeaker of a win over Philipe Nover, never mind “The Next Anderson Silva” boxing him up early on in their encounter. Jury will have to deal with Glenn’s general activity and eat some shots, but “The Fury” has the hands, speed and craft to pick apart Glenn, as well as the wrestling chops to dictate the terms of any grappling game that might result. Glenn’s hittable but remains a very tough out, so Jury wins a tidy decision and earns consecutive victories for the first time in three years.
Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau Pereira (12-1-1) vs. Louis Smolka (11-4)ODDS: Nicolau (-280), Smolka (+240)
ANALYSIS:
Here we have 125ers with something to prove, albeit for vastly different reasons. Nicolau is returning from a one-year anti-doping suspension after testing positive for the banned substance anastrozole. The 26-year-old Smolka, who has publicly stated he stopped drinking during training camp after years of in-camp consumption, has lost three in a row, although those defeats came against a murderer’s row of Brandon Moreno, Ray Borg and Tim Elliott. Stylistically, this is a case of often doing too late versus doing too much. Nicolau is more often than not coming forward and closing the distance on his opponents but waiting for them to actually initiate action before he loads up and counters. His best career win over John Moraga was marked by his playing on “Chicano John’s” impatience, then landing punches and late takedowns in a close fight. Smolka will not allow himself to revert into inactivity like Moraga; he lands 3.97 significant strikes a minute and eats 3.05, while owning a rotten 32 percent takedown defense. Smolka is a brilliant scrambler and thrives when he take dominant positions and unloads heavy strikes on a shocked foe. This is a gift and a curse, as he is the more dangerous fighter but may just wind up eating counterpunches and running headlong into reactionary takedowns from the Brazilian. Smolka is bigger, longer, hits harder and is generally more offensively gifted, yet may be stylistically doomed to play into Nicolau’s buttoned-up approach. Smolka is among the liveliest dogs on the card, but Nicolau via competitive decision is the call here.
Middleweight
Omari Akhmedov (17-4) vs. Marvin Vettori (12-3)ODDS: Vettori (-225), Akhmedov (+185)
ANALYSIS:
Along with Alessio Di Chirico and Mara Romero Borella, the 24-year-old Vettori is one of many prospects hoping to prove Italian MMA is about more than Alessio Sakara. In Akhmedov, he faces a brawny, powerful wrestler who hopes a return to 185 pounds -- the Russian has not fought as a middleweight since a UFC debut in which he knocked out Thiago de Oliveira Perpetuo in November 2013 -- will help with his chronic fitness issues. The Dagestan native throws all of his techniques with maximum power, whether they are booming right hands, power doubles, punches or elbows on top. Throughout his 170-pound run, he would tend to rapidly fatigue and need to attempt to hold on to preserve leads as he became comically tired and breathless, which is how he got knocked out by the likes of Sergio Moraes of all people. Akhmedov has a great reactive double-leg takedown and it should help against the hard-charging southpaw Vettori, but the Italian knows precisely what “Wolverine’s” game is going to be. In fact, Vettori’s best skill -- rocking an opponent with a lunging left hand and then finishing him off with his patented guillotine -- is fairly similar to how Gunnar Nelson waxed Akhmedov. Also, in Akhmedov’s last outing, he nearly lost a split decision to the explosive but inexperienced Abdul Razak Alhassan simply because he could not control him from the top. Akhmedov will get some takedowns, but he will not control “The Italian Dream,” who has been working intently on his wrestling with Patrick Cummins at Kings MMA in Southern California. Vettori has a real chance to knock out Akhmedov or hurt him and tap him, but regardless of whether or not his efforts result in a stoppage, he should at least outlast his opponent’s desperate wrestling attacks to a decision.
Bantamweight
Tim Elliott (14-8-1) vs. Mark Delarosa (9-0)ODDS: Elliott (-220), Delarosa (+180)
ANALYSIS:
This bout is an exercise in strange trivia notes. Elliott was supposed to meet Justin Scoggins at UFC on Fox 26 two weeks ago, but Scoggins suffered a spinal injury and was forced out of the match. Enter the undefeated Pietro Menga, who accepted the fight on short notice despite being 30 pounds overweight. That ultimately led to his weighing in at 131 pounds and Elliott declining to fight him before getting rebooked for another potential payday. Meanwhile, he now ends up with a tougher booking than Menga in the unbeaten Delarosa, husband of “The Ultimate Fighter 26” alum Montana Delarosa. You may also know Delarosa from an infamous last-minute pullout, also related to weigh-ins, when he opted out of a Legacy Fighting Championship bantamweight title bout with Steven Peterson amidst controversy 14 months ago. The dynamic seems obvious: Elliott, who averages 4.38 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, will lob wild southpaw strikes and pressure Delarosa, who will try to circle and work his clean, snappy jab-and-box game or catch an overaggressive Elliott shooting in. This latter dynamic is a very real threat, as it is exactly how Elliott was upset by Ben Nguyen. However, Delarosa has not been put on his back or threatened in the wrestling game repeatedly by a fighter like Elliott and he has a nasty habit of backing his way into the fence, allowing exactly the sort of fence play upon which Elliott thrives. At just 23, “The Bumblebee” has a ton of upside, but for now, Elliott wears him out for a 15-minute verdict.