Lightweight
Joseph Duffy (16-2) vs. James Vick (11-1)ANALYSIS: At this juncture, I am not sure how many MMA fans need a reminder of the outstanding state of the lightweight division, but just in case, let this bout serve as a clue: These two fighters are a combined 11-2 at 155 pounds inside the Octagon, and while the winner will take a massive leap forward in title contention, realistically, the victor will still be nowhere near a title shot or an interim title shot, for that matter. Since losing to eventual “Ultimate Fighter 15” winner Michael Chiesa during the season, the 30-year-old Vick has gone 7-1 in the Octagon, yet remains largely unknown due to the depth of the division and the fact that he always seems to be injured when hot 155-pound bouts are getting put to paper. “The Texecutioner” is a massive 6-foot-3 lightweight and is not a frail beanpole in that body, using his long limbs and large torso to envelop his opponents and beat them up coming forward into his arduous clinch phase. Perhaps most notable about Vick’s game is that his primary method of finishing is one that is both increasingly en vogue and seemingly important for elite fighters in 2017. He excels at hitting his opponents, hurting them and then grabbing their neck from the front headlock when they are compromised to finish via submission, a la Tony Ferguson, Max Holloway and many other pound-for-pound standouts. Duffy is not just “that guy who beat Conor McGregor” but a sound, developing fighter in his own right. His overall arsenal is more well-rounded than Vick’s, but he will be challenged by the Texan’s size, pressure and constant clinch grabbing. Duffy excels at range when he is circling, setting up his own combinations and not reacting to a more aggressive opponent. This is how Dustin Poirier got the best of him at UFC 195 and how Vick will seek to cover and smother him before trying to sock him up inside. Vick’s size and forward pressure will be a stern early test for “Irish Joe,” but Duffy is the cleaner, truer boxer. He does not have the natural southpaw stance and power that allowed Beneil Dariush to piece up an aggressive Vick, but he still has varied technique with his lead hand, and behind a jab, low kicks and circular movement, Duffy should be able to avoid Vick’s dangerous clinch attack, as well as the wild scrambles that let the impossibly tall lightweight grab his foes’ necks. Duffy on points is the pick in a classically entertaining lightweight affair.
Heavyweight
Mark Godbeer (12-3) vs. Walt Harris (10-5)ODDS: Harris (-400), Godbeer (+325)
ANALYSIS: In light of this new, brave era of UFC bouts being canceled and postponed during fight week, have folks agreed upon whether or not heavy-typing boffins like myself can simply copy and paste recent, relevant analysis for bouts like this? By now, you know the story: Godbeer and Harris were set to square off at UFC 216 on Oct. 7 -- until fight night came and main card heavyweight Derrick Lewis was forced out of his fight with Fabricio Werdum due to a lingering back injury. Harris stepped in and lasted 65 seconds before he was schooled via armbar; Godbeer made $30,000 just for stepping aside. Werdum will headline UFC Fight Night 121 in the coming weeks, while Harris is right back into the bout from which he was removed. What is more heavyweight MMA than that? Since they were set to meet four weeks ago, my initial breakdown still stands. Harris is less experienced but has far more tools, though they are all being educated and polished at a frantic rate to catch the 34-year-old up to his athletic potential. Meanwhile, Godbeer is a more mature and evolved United Kingdom heavyweight brawler. He is not just a swinger but a legitimate boxer who can sprinkle in a distance kicking game and dirty-boxing clinch attack to supplement his ability at range. While Godbeer is the rightful underdog, Harris remains so hittable that one major swing from the Englishman could be a home run -- or whatever they call a big hit in cricket, rounders or whatever bat-ball sports they have in the Old Country. Harris’ athleticism, manifested in his liver kicks and roundhouse kicks upstairs, should crack from the outside before setting up his hard, left-hand combinations to stun and put away Godbeer. However, it is imperative that he cover his face after every combo, since just one Godbeer cross after an exchange could exploit his shaky chin. “The Big Ticket” gets a knockout with his southpaw style in the first eight minutes, but heaven help us if either Curtis Blaydes or Alexey Oleynik is forced out of their heavyweight undercard bout at the last minute.
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (13-3) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (12-2)ODDS: Cutelaba (-550), Oleksiejczuk (+425)
ANALYSIS: Initially, Romanian upstart Cutelaba was set to face surging Gadzhimurad Antigulov in a bout that could have promoted the winner to top-15 status at 205 pounds. With the Russian’s injury, Polish prospect Oleksiejczuk gets the call two weeks too late for the UFC Fight Night 118 card in his homeland, hoping instead to make a splash in a division that, frankly, needs every last splash it can get. Unfortunately, Oleksiejczuk is not the sort of fighter liable to make a sudden and shocking “ready for primetime” UFC debut. Not only is he disadvantaged by the short notice in this contest, but he is stepping in against a particular opponent who is an unsung, dangerous prospect and one that you do not want abbreviated notice to face. Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw striker, a look that has given “The Hulk” some problems in previous bouts, notably in his win over Jonathan Wilson. However, the 22-year-old “Lord” Oleksiejczuk is nowhere near active enough nor clean and powerful enough with his striking technique to stem Cutelaba’s offensive salvos the way Jared Cannonier did. Cutelaba is a runaway train, throwing four-to-eight strike combinations with every rush and almost always at full power. Punches, knees, kicks, spinning strikes -- everything is fair game when Cutelaba encroaches on his foes, this despite the fact that his theoretical bread and butter is his Greco-Roman wrestling attack. Cannonier slowed him down because of his hard, crisp jab and the unblocked power shots behind it; an opponent without this sort of clean boxing will not stop Cuteleba’s forward momentum. Oleksiejczuk has a hard left and some shifty left roundhouse kicks to the head that may slow Cutelaba momentarily, but he lacks the stopping power and technique in any department to thwart the Romanian’s raucous advances. Cutelaba unloads on his late-replacement opponent with those long, unyielding salvos and potent slams, notching a stoppage inside the first two rounds.
Welterweight
Randy Brown (9-2) vs. Mickey Gall (4-0)ODDS: Gall (-120), Brown (+100)
ANALYSIS: Brown-Gall is appropriate matchmaking. It might pique some part of the tri-state area fanbase, and it is a legitimate intriguing clash of styles and development for two vastly different fighters, both of whom are just scratching the surface of their potential. However, despite there being just 50 miles between the two fighters, there is a world of difference in their maturation and perception. To the even a hardcore fan, this is what Gall’s career looks like: He fought in front of UFC President Dana White; had a tryout for Dana White, destroyed Phil “CM Punk” Brooks and crushed Sage Northcutt. It seems like some vindictive anti-UFC hatefest, right? Meanwhile, Brown has been paired with Matt Dwyer, alleged woman-beater Michael Graves, Erick Montano, Brian Camozzi and Belal Muhammad. No doubt, “Rude Boy” has gotten the tougher road under UFC employ so far, but this is far from an instance where Gall is being coddled because he happened to beat a famous professional wrestler and a preferential UFC poster boy. This bout is nearly even on the betting lines for a reason: Gall, on top of being doubted, has far less amateur and pro experience and faces notable physical handicaps, but he is the classier, more technical fighter. At 6-foot-2 and with a 74-inch reach, Gall will be a physical difficulty for most opponents, but not the massive, unwieldy 6-foot-3 Brown and his four-inch reach advantage. However, Brown is still a physical specimen in need of far more reps, cage time and repetition, whereas Gall has aced every amateur and pro hurdle he has faced with aplomb. His striking is a work in progress, but he uses it to set up smart, well-timed takedowns. If he cannot get Brown down clean, Gall will bail and create the sort of scrambles that have stifled and confused his previous foes. If Gall does not get himself a submission in the first 10 minutes, his positional superiority will take him to a tidy decision over Brown and move him into a more attractive fight at 170 pounds, one that hopefully can legitimize him beyond “the guy that beat CM Punk and Sage Northcutt” -- a distinction that may gain you attention but certainly not the hearts and minds of the fickle MMA fanbase.
Last Fights » The Prelims