Bantamweights
Tom Duquesnoy (15-1) vs. Cody Stamann (14-1)ANALYSIS: Is Duquesnoy really the Next Big Thing? The MMA world certainly wants some substantive proof and in fellow once-beaten prospect Stamann we get a perfect opponent to flesh out where France’s “Fire Kid” is at in his career and whether or not he is about to set the bantamweight world ablaze. I cannot say enough good things about this matchup.
The person who watches a Duquesnoy highlight and claims to be unfazed is either lying or dead. The 24-year-old has beaten a surprisingly high level of European talent, and he has finished 12 of his 15 victories with a brilliant combination of powerful, finesse striking and sudden, slick submission acumen. He can go forward or counter off of his back foot; he can fight orthodox and southpaw; he can do damage with any limb in either stance; he can spin; he can fly; and when he hurts his opponents, he can polish them off with submissions while they are compromised. He is a truly dynamic eight-point striker, emphasis on “eight,” as his array of standing elbow attacks are thrilling and lethal, as Patrick Williams found out in Duquesnoy’s UFC debut. His recent move to Jackson-Wink MMA does not hurt, either.
Michigan Top Team’s Stamann is a classic Midwestern wrestle-boxer, which is precisely the sort of style over which Duquesnoy will need to triumph to enjoy long-term success, making this a poignant test. In his short-notice Octagon debut in July, Stamann willingly engaged with Terrion Ware while finding takedowns at the midpoint of each round to win a tidy decision. However, Ware was getting the better of the striking exchanges, with Stamann bating him by retreating and then exploding off of his back foot into takedowns. Stamann’s wrestling will challenge Duquesnoy in exactly the way the Frenchman needs to be challenged, but can he hold him down for 15 minutes? That part is unlikely. Worse for Stamann, he has a poor sense of striking range, walking into the pocket while attempting to handfight, which is exactly the sort of thing that opens up standing elbows for even an average striker, let alone an incredibly gifted one who uses that technique as a pro wrestling-style finishing maneuver. Duquesnoy will overcome Stamann’s early wrestling impositions and then get surgical in the standup, leading to a knockout -- quite possibly an elbow-oriented one -- within the first two rounds.
Lightweights
Will Brooks (18-3) vs. Nik Lentz (27-8-2)ODDS: Brooks (-360), Lentz (+300)
ANALYSIS: We know precisely who Lentz is at this point in his career: a high-level lightweight gatekeeper, a constant spoiler that few fighters wish to face and a political rabble-rouser on social media. Who is Brooks? Is he truly a top-10 lightweight beset by bad luck early in his UFC run or is he merely a good fighter who somehow stopped Michael Chandler twice?
Brooks’ career downfalls have come in momentary lapses, whether it was Saad Awad catching him cold in their first bout, the sudden ground-and-pound of a woefully overweight Alex Oliveira or the strategic silliness of exposing his back early on to Charles Oliveira, one of the most dazzling submission artists in MMA history. The only potential bugaboo against “The Carny” is watching out for Lentz’s front headlock, which he uses to set set up takedowns and lock up his best offensive weapon: the guillotine choke. Brooks will enjoy four inches of reach on Lentz, which he can use to unload punching combinations or more likely his preferred, ranged kicking attack. Lentz’s poison has been those fighters, like recent opponent Islam Makhachev, who can either take him down first or counter-wrestle off of his blown takedowns and put him in compromising positions. Brooks can do both and perhaps even in a similar fashion to the aforementioned Russian, who took Lentz’s back late after tiring him out with superior grappling.
This is a put-up-or-shut-up moment for “Ill Will,” but fortunately for the former Bellator MMA champion, it is a style matchup that suits him. Brooks will kick from range and sprawl on Lentz’s shots, and if he is especially froggy, he can perhaps even take the back and look for a finish. Brooks on points is the call, but heaven help this man if he dives headlong into a guillotine.
Lightweights
Bobby Green (23-8) vs. Lando Vannata (9-2)ODDS: Vannata (-220), Green (+180)
ANALYSIS: What this one looks like is anyone’s guess. After his shocking near-upset of UFC 216 headliner Tony Ferguson in his Octagon debut and wheel-kick knockout of John Makdessi in December, Vannata was brought back to Earth by David Teymur in March, as the upstart Swede used a high volume of kicking and takedown attempts to confuse and frustrate “Groovy Lando,” who in turn struggled to use his own wrestling and unorthodox striking attacks. Meanwhile, Green has seen the best run of his career, an eight-fight winning streak spanning from Strikeforce to the UFC, turn into a three-fight losing skid that has highlighted his baffling lack of in-cage strategy.
When he chooses to, Green can be a crisp boxer, high-flying striker, stout wrestler and overall rock-solid MMA fighter. However, during his three-fight losing streak, his worst career habits have been on shining display. Against Dustin Poirier, he backed himself to the fence with his hands down, trying to shoulder roll like Floyd Mayweather or James Toney, and got blasted for it in less than three minutes. Against Edson Barboza and most recently, Rashid Magomedov, Green’s best offense was simply trash talking and taunting his opponents while landing nothing more than clinch knees to the legs. If Green chooses to pressure Vannata and apply his own wrestling offensively, he has a real chance to replicate the success Teymur enjoyed, but “King” seems like one of the least likely candidates to follow any sort of cogent strategy, let alone another fighter’s blueprint.
By the same token, while Vannata’s style is still maturing under head trainer Brandon Gibson, his flashy strikes, potshotting and showboating seem like exactly the things that will agitate Green’s worst instincts. More than that, even when Teymur was pulling ahead against Vannata in the second half of their fight, the Jackson-Wink MMA product never stopped actually attacking. Vannata remains a work in progress and a defensive liability, but his aggressive, unique style figures to force Green into his Diaz Brothers routine quickly and disrupt his ever-tenuous focus. Vannata via decision is the pick, but nothing is for sure here, apart from the fact that given both men’s styles and histories, someone is likely to get tagged in the groin.
Women’s Strawweights
Poliana Botelho (5-1) vs. Pearl Gonzalez (6-2)ODDS: Botelho (-145), Gonzalez (+125)
ANALYSIS: If you are looking for well-rounded technique and defense, look elsewhere. Fortunately, the styles of Botelho and Gonzalez should lend themselves to a wild, woolly and ultimately entertaining contest. Botelho is an aggressive striker in the classic mold of Brazilian muay Thai, wildly winging with both hands and working in taekwondo-inspired attacks, to boot; the spinning back kick is by far her most dangerous technique. More than that, she was already a solid 125-pounder and she figures to be the bigger, stronger woman as she drops to strawweight. However, she has only four years of MMA experience and she has not fought in two years due to injury. Even with her move to Nova Uniao, her grappling game -- and the entire connective tissue of an overall MMA game -- still lags behind.
Case in point: Botelho’s last fight came in September 2015 against Argentina’s Silvana Gomez Juarez -- an under-the-radar talent who should end up in the UFC or Bellator MMA soon -- who smashed her for the better part of 20 minutes. Juarez dropped her multiple times with crushing right hands, pounded her on the floor and nearly dispatched her with an armbar. After four rounds, Juarez quit due to a damaged eye and likely the kicks she sustained to the body, but the Argentine was pasting Botelho for most of the fight and would have won a 15-minute decision if it had been a three-round bout.
How has Botelho improved in the gym in the two years since? Gonzalez will look to answer that question. She could not show much in her UFC debut against Cynthia Calvillo in April, but Calvillo is a precocious and already-outstanding prospect. Gonzalez has an upright muay Thai stance and likes to openly exchange on the feet, which is certainly not a good idea against the stronger, heavier-hitting Botelho. Her best success comes when she is scrambling for submissions on the floor, yet her rudimentary headlock-throw takedowns and lack of defensive awareness on the floor means she typically spends more time escaping submissions than applying them. Her greatest chance for victory is to hope a tired or overaggressive Botelho slips into one of the positions; however, the size and striking advantages for the Brazilian should allow her to keep it standing and do what she does best while perhaps showing new wrinkles developed under Andre Pederneiras. Botelho on points is the pick.
Last Fights » The Prelims