Preview: UFC 195 ‘Lawler vs. Condit’

Bantamweights

Michael McDonald (16-3) vs Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5): McDonald has natural talents aplenty --power, confidence -- but the more subtle, learned aspects of fighting stand out as well, particularly for a man of only 24 years. McDonald is an excellent feinter, using tricky movements to disguise his crushing combinations. He keeps his feet under his body when he throws punches, leaving him in position to follow up and pinpoint the position of his prey. Unfortunately a litany of injuries have kept McDonald on the sidelines for over two years, but there is still more than enough time for him to develop his arsenal. Kanehara is a worthy test for McDonald’s comeback. The Japanese vet’s awkward, upright stance may look unassuming, but he packs considerable power in his well-timed counters, and his grinding clinch and top-position grappling give him everything he needs to take advantage of an opening. McDonald should be favored, but it all depends on how he looks after such a long layoff. The pick is McDonald by KO in round one.

Welterweights

Kyle Noke (22-7-1) vs Alex Morono (11-3): Prior to UFC 193, I pointed out the chronic lack of potency in Noke’s trademark kicking game. Judging by the front kick with which he flattened Peter Sobotta, maybe he read my preview. Noke is still a flawed fighter in many ways, but he is crafty and well-versed in every phase of MMA, making him a dangerous opponent for 25 year-old Morono, who replaces an injured Kelvin Gastelum on just two weeks’ notice. Morono is a prospect with some promise, but he is raw in nearly every aspect of combat, stiff and undeveloped on the feet and somewhat reckless on the ground. I am as sure that Noke will win this as I was that Sobotta would beat Noke back in November. Take that for what it is worth. Noke wins by TKO in round two.

Women’s Strawweights

Justine Kish (4-0) vs Nina Ansaroff (6-4): Kish is a little robotic, but her size, strength and power have more than made up for any stiffness against her prior competition, which includes UFC prospect Randa Markos. Kish comes forward constantly, throws high volume and mauls away in the clinch once she closes the distance. Ansaroff moves more smoothly and actually makes use of feints, but she does not throw nearly enough to contend with a swarmer like Kish; and while Kish is not the greatest wrestler on the planet, her sheer mass gives her a capable takedown game with which to control the wrestling-deficient Ansaroff. The pick is Kish by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Scott Holtzman (8-0) vs Drew Dober (15-7): Both Holtzman and Dober are dynamic, high-volume fighters. Holtzman is a pressure fighter, though one inclined to land hard counters while coming forward. In the clinch, he smashes away with elbows, using collar ties and underhooks to get his opponents off-balance in preparation for his strikes. Dober is no shyer with his strikes, but he prefers to fight off of the back foot and seems to lack Holtzman’s potency, though neither fighter is particularly powerful. Of the two, Dober might be the better adjuster, but Holtzman will have the edge in power and accuracy early on. I think Holtzman rides that lead to a unanimous decision win.

Lightweights

Dustin Poirier (18-4) vs Joe Duffy (14-1): Despite its peculiar placement among the UFC Fight Pass prelims, this is still the great fight that was set to headline UFC Dublin. The fact that Duffy was apparently flash KO’d in sparring while preparing for the first date does make a pick for Poirier more tempting, but Duffy has never before showed the kind of vulnerability that accident might suggest in his actual fights; and his skill set still lines up favorably with Poirier’s. Duffy is the more technical boxer with better defense, and his wrestling and highly aggressive submission grappling only add to the overall threat. Poirier has the power and the offensive intelligence to even things up in quick and devastating fashion, but in terms of finesse and defensive responsibility, he is lacking. Duffy gets the win by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Joe Soto (15-4) vs Michinori Tanaka (10-1): An interesting clash between two idiosyncratic styles takes place here. Tanaka’s strong suit is his judo. The second-degree black belt is not only an adept takedown artist but a crafty submission grappler, with surprising strength given his wiry frame. He floats effortlessly in top position and uses quick explosions to escape when stuck on the bottom. Tanaka has trained out of Team Alpha Male in the past, and his odd, frenetic striking style is very reminiscent of Urijah Faber’s, with constant lateral movement punctuated by quick, lunging strikes. Soto is more of a classic boxer, using a tight high guard to deflect his opponent’s punches in order to set up sharp counters. Soto’s best strength in the grappling department is his aggressive bottom game, but he has at times been too willing to play from his back. Both Soto and Tanaka are slow starters and not particularly high-volume strikers, with Soto preferring to counter and Tanaka preferring to lead. This is a close and intriguing matchup and one that I think favors Tanaka’s stifling, grinding ground game. Tanaka wins by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Sheldon Westcott (8-3-1) vs Edgar Garcia (14-4): One of the least relevant fights on the card is nonetheless an interesting -- and somewhat nostalgic -- stylistic clash. Westcott is a jiu-jitsu-based fighter from a bygone era, wholly determined to work his ground game at all times. This is likely because Westcott’s striking is awkward and timorous. As a result he single-mindedly pursues takedowns and the clinch, often finding early success but fading as the opponent adapts and starts to fight off his limited wrestling attack. Likewise, Garcia is the “classic model” of sprawl-and-brawler, with heavy hands and a strong sprawl. Like the old-school MMA strikers, Garcia tends to get himself into trouble in prolonged grappling exchanges, but his initial defense is quite strong. Westcott should have the early edge, but his tendency to tire and flail desperately for takedowns as the fight progresses will be his downfall. The pick is Garcia by TKO.