John Lineker’s inability to make weight forced a move to 135 pounds. | Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Bantamweights
Francisco Rivera (11-4, 4-3 UFC) vs John Lineker (25-7, 6-2 UFC): In a forced move up to bantamweight, Lineker finds himself in what might be the most promising matchup of action fighters possible in the UFC today. Lineker and Rivera are boxers first and foremost, each possessing powerful hands and a talent for combination punching. Rivera might be the more well-rounded striker, with a fondness for punishing low kicks, but Lineker’s commitment to jabs and body punches makes him a serious threat in his chosen area of expertise. In the end, I think this battle of punchers comes down to defense. Lineker takes a hell of a shot and is always happy to trade blows, while Rivera is an above-average defensive fighter. The pick is Rivera by unanimous decision.Lightweights
Ross Pearson (17-9, 9-6 UFC) vs Paul Felder (10-1, 2-1 UFC): After losing a spin-filled “Fight of the Year” contender against Edson Barboza, Felder looks to make a quick turnaround reminiscent of big brother Donald Cerrone. Like “Cowboy,” Felder’s game is built around his potent stepping knees, which he uses to counter takedown attempts and keep his quarry on the retreat. Pearson probably lost his last shot at meaningful run at 155 pounds when he was felled by Al Iaquinta in November, but he remains an experienced striker with a deep bag of tricks. Expect both men to use their above-average head movement in an attempt to walk one other into counters. With inferior speed, power, variety and durability, however, it is hard to imagine Pearson playing St. Georgeto Felder’s “Irish Dragon.” The pick is Felder by second-round knockout.Women’s Bantamweights
Jessica Andrade (10-5, 4-2 UFC) vs Raquel Pennington (5-5, 2-2 UFC): Andrade steps in on short notice to replace Liz Carmouche, turning a lukewarm contest between gatekeepers into a reasonably compelling rematch between two action fighters. Pennington is a sufficiently technical boxer with a strong clinch game. Andrade is not as clean on the feet, but she is much more consistent, swarming her opponents with long combinations of hooks and kicks to head and body. Pennington had much the better of the boxing exchanges early in her first fight with Andrade, but it was the Brazilian’s well-roundedness that turned out to be her undoing. If Andrade can mix takedowns and kicks into her usual array of looping punches, she should be able to clinch another close win. Andrade by split decision is the pick.Featherweights
Clay Collard (14-6, 1-2 UFC) vs Tiago dos Santos e Silva (19-5-2, 1-1 UFC): Two very similar fighters meet in this interesting undercard contest. ollard and “Trator” are well-rounded competitors -- MMA natives, if you will. Silva has the better kicking game and a fondness for gritty, grinding in-fighting. Collard can match him on the inside, and at range, he possesses the better hands. Ultimately, this one likely comes down to toughness. In both of Collard’s UFC losses, we saw that he possesses that trait in spades, while Silva’s most recent result -- a knockout loss to Mike de la Torre in February -- suggests just the opposite. The pick is Collard by unanimous decision.Middleweights
Joe Riggs (40-16, 4-6 UFC) vs Ron Stallings (13-7, 1-1 UFC): Stallings is a fighter much better than his record indicates. Patently aggressive, Stallings has gradually added the necessary defense and footwork to complement his come-forward style. Riggs, on the other hand, is starting to seem like a victim of his record more than anything else. As his reflexes slow and his durability diminishes, Riggs’ old well-roundedness is starting to decay into a sort of general mediocrity. There is a chance that Riggs could tie up and wear down his opponent against the fence, but I expect Stallings to thwart him more easily than he did the much younger, stronger Justin Jones. Stallings wins by head-kick TKO in the second round.Lightweights
Joaquim Silva (7-0, 0-0 UFC) vs Nazareno Malegarie (23-3, 0-0 UFC): For a man nicknamed “Netto BJJ,” Silva represents the art of the Gracies about as well as a young Vitor Belfort -- which is to say that, despite his grappling claims, he prefers to just knock the other guy’s block off if he can. His opponent, the veteran Malegarie, is the exact opposite. “El Tigre” has won 15 of 23 via submission, and, despite dramatic improvements to his striking, his game remains focused on the ground. As a former featherweight, Malegarie’s biggest hurdle will be Silva’s size, but his experience and submission savvy should be enough to pass the test. Malegarie takes it by submission in the third round.Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands.