Clay Guida arrives at 145 pounds with plenty of expectations. | Photo: Sherdog.com
Featherweights
Clay Guida (29-13, 9-7 UFC) vs. Hatsu Hioki (26-5-2, 2-1 UFC): After a lengthy stint at lightweight, Guida makes his 145-pound debut against Hioki, who saw his stock drop with an upset loss to Ricardo Lamas at UFC on FX 4. The Japanese fighter, once the world’s No. 2-ranked featherweight, likes to score trip takedowns and work methodically from top control. He will find that difficult against Guida’s frenetic pace and rhythm, however. It will not always be pretty, but Guida uses a high-energy approach to capture a decision in his 145-pound debut.
Lightweights
Matt Wiman (15-6, 9-4 UFC) vs. T.J. Grant (19-5, 6-3 UFC): Grant used a multi-pronged striking arsenal to score a unanimous decision over Evan Dunham at UFC 152; it was his third straight win in the Octagon. The 28-year-old Canadian is a skilled grappler with underrated standup and could be just one more win away from a breakthrough. Wiman, meanwhile, is known for his aggressive mix of wrestling and standup, but he showed an added dimension by submitting Paul Sass at UFC on Fuel TV 5. Grant uses his five-inch reach advantage on the feet and wins enough of the grappling exchanges to take a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Ryan Bader (14-3, 7-3 UFC) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6, 7-4 UFC): Bader suffered a brutal knockout at the hands of Lyoto Machida at UFC on Fox 4, but he will face a far less trickier puzzle in Matyushenko, who has not fought in more than a year. Both fighters are known for their wrestling base, but at 42 years old, one has to wonder how much Matyushenko has left in the tank. Bader is the younger, more athletic wrester, and he has knockout power in his hands, as well. Bader wins via technical knockout in round two.
Heavyweights
Mike Russow (15-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Shawn Jordan (13-4, 1-1 UFC): Both big men have plenty to prove here. Russow’s four-fight Octagon winning streak came to a decisive end courtesy of Fabricio Werdum at UFC 147, while Jordan offered little offense in a lackluster decision defeat to Cheick Kongo at UFC 149. Jordan is probably more explosive, but all the athletic ability in the world will not mean anything if he finds himself beneath the smothering pressure of Russow. The Chicagoan will be in Jordan’s face from the outset, scoring takedowns and grinding out a decision victory over the former LSU Tiger.
Welterweights
Pascal Krauss (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Stumpf (11-3, 0-1 UFC): Krauss recently moved to Milwaukee to train full-time, which should help his progression. In his last outing, “Panzer” was out-struck and outwrestled by John Hathaway in suffering his first career defeat at UFC on Fox 3. Stumpf, meanwhile, has not competed since being submitted by T.J. Waldburger in September 2011. Krauss takes this via decision.
Middleweights
Rafael Natal (14-4-1, 2-2-1 UFC) vs. Sean Spencer (9-1, 0-0 UFC): Natal was in control for much of his UFC on Fuel TV 4 bout with Andrew Craig but ultimately paid the price for his showboating, losing via second-round head kick. Although he will be facing a promotional debutante in Spencer, Natal must show more respect for his opponent than he did against Craig. Spencer will be game, but the larger Natal should have his way on the mat against the natural welterweight, earning a submission by round two or three.
Welterweights
Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. David Mitchell (11-2, 0-2 UFC): Mitchell, who had a UFC on Fuel TV 6 bout against Hyun Gyu Lim fall through at the last minute in November, could be on the chopping block here. He faces a fellow submission specialist in Thoresen, who did a good job frustrating Seth Baczynski with his length before suffering a knockout loss at UFC 152. In a matchup where the ground game could be a stalemate, Thoresen will be able to fight at range and land with greater volume on the feet to capture a decision victory.