UFC Fight Night 18 Breakdown: The Prelims

Tim McKenzie vs. Aaron Simpson

The Breakdown: Journeyman meets prospect, as the well-traveled McKenzie (12-5) takes on fellow World Extreme Cagefighting refugee Simpson in a bout that will likely send the loser to Pink Slip City. While McKenzie’s edge in experience and all-around ability makes him an obvious favorite, he does have a striker’s mentality, and Simpson has the kind of knockout power that needs only a small window of opportunity to make itself known. Simpson (4-0) has a knack for putting down opponents in a hurry, and McKenzie is the kind of fighter that likes to test the water standing -- a choice that may end with him flat on his back.

The X Factor: This fight hinges on how McKenzie approaches Simpson, as any time he spends on the feet only gives Simpson the opportunity he needs to uncork a bottle of vintage chin check. Granted, if McKenzie has the good sense to take down Simpson, he should be well out of harm’s way against such an inexperienced opponent. Either way, it all comes down to the smarts of the guy with the huge, red Mohawk.

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The Bottom Line: For all the talk of Simpson’s punching power, his tremendous wrestling background often goes ignored; he was a collegiate All-American and spent time as a coach of Arizona State’s well-regarded wrestling program. Expect him to use both, as he scores a surprisingly easy technical knockout win over McKenzie and announces his presence in the contender-starved middleweight division.