Jeremy Stephens file photo: Sherdog.com
Both Guillard and Stephens have been in this spot before -- on the main card with a nice win streak going and the chance to graduate from gatekeeper to contender. The difference this time around is that they don’t have to worry about any of that annoying grappling business.
The best laid plans of mice and matchmakers go awry faster than a season of “Celebrity Rehab,” but Stephens and Guillard have never been the sort to pass up on a game of Find the Chin. Ironically, finding the chin is often their biggest problem, as they don’t use the jab with any semblance of regularity. A problem exacerbated by a raging desire to land kill-shots from the opening bell.
However, Stephens does use the outside leg kick and lead left hook surprisingly well to find his range. In his bout with Sam Stout, he circumvented the Canadian’s technical advantage by using those strikes early to set the table for his vaunted overhand right. While that’s been his modus operandi for some time now, he did show a marked improvement in his defense as manifested in the form of more varied and intelligent movement.
How Stephens moves his feet in this fight will be of the utmost importance. Guillard is nothing short of devastating in the pocket. Dennis Siver is one of the more respected strikers in the lightweight division, and he lasted all of 36 seconds with Guillard because he stood right in front of him. The flip side is that any movement seems to befuddle “The Young Assassin” -- a fact driven home in his loss to Nate Diaz, which saw his dominance in the pocket fade into nothingness the second Diaz started circling away from him.
The influence of Greg Jackson will weigh in heavily on this fight, as Guillard has become a surprisingly willing pupil despite a history of substandard training camps. By the same token, Jackson’s influence should not be overstated since his disciplined approach to MMA has served mostly to keep his latest protégé from making the boneheaded mistakes that have cost him many a fight before. Actual improvements in his striking have yet to materialize beyond some decent work with the jab against Ronny Torres, who had nothing to offer Guillard on the feet.
Given their well-documented nuclear-grade power, either man can end this fight with a blitz of ground strikes. With that said, Stephens is more likely to try that tact since Guillard seems to have stopped chasing ill-advised double legs and judo throws. Unfortunately for Stephens, Guillard’s takedown defense is nothing short of stellar both in terms of stuffing takedowns and recovering back to his feet. If anything, watch for the aftermath of the inevitable knockdowns since both fighters rack them up with unusual regularity.
Should the fight come down to a battle of the beards, the smart money is on Stephens. It’s hard to shake the image of Guillard getting wobbled by a Joe Stevenson jab, and it’s not like he’s made any obvious defensive improvements since then. Stephens’ varied offense and gradually improving technique wins the day in this one.