Nate Diaz file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
After a failed lightweight title run, Diaz looks to continue his reinvention as an elite welterweight against fellow “The Ultimate Fighter” alumnus Davis. After going 1-2 in his last three Octagon bouts, this is a match Davis desperately needs to win to retain whatever’s left of his status in the 170-pound class.
“The Irish Hand Grenade” leans heavily on his boxing skills, but his age and a long injury history have mostly robbed him of his speed and power. What remains is a sound boxer who lacks the pop to keep a sturdy-chinned volume puncher like Diaz from razor tagging him. The Californian’s lanky frame has acclimated nicely to welterweight, and his combination of rangy punches and relentless pace make him a rough style clash for a close-quarters striker like Davis.
There is no quarter awaiting Davis on the floor either, as Diaz is one of the most adroit guard players the UFC has. While Davis does have some decent clinch wrestling skills, he doesn’t have the tight top-control game to reliably corral the crown prince of the 209. Giving Diaz the space he needs to work his active guard game is a mistake that Davis won’t survive unscathed should this fight reach the mat.
It really doesn’t matter if it does, though, since Diaz has the edge in offensive arsenal anywhere the fight heads. That’s not to say Davis won’t make a fight out of it, but expect a bloody TKO to go Diaz’s way after several tense minutes of back-and-forth violence.