Strikeforce/M-1 ‘Fedor vs. Henderson’ Preview

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Welterweights
Tarec Saffiedine (10-3, 2-1 SF) vs. Scott Smith (17-8, 1 NC, 3-3 SF)

The Matchup: Despite his decision loss to Tyron Woodley in January, Saffiedine remains an emerging talent. With solid standup, speed and a dynamic understanding of transitions between the phases of the game, he has made himself a talent to watch.

Now fighting in his fourth weight class, Smith attempts to reverse a tough career slide in which he has lost three of his last four, all by punishing knockout. Making a name for himself as one of the sport’s most exciting comeback artists, Smith has provided some of MMA’s most riveting fights, rallying from the brink of disaster to win by knockout against Cung Le, Benji Radach and Pete Sell.

For longtime Smith watchers who saw him come up on the local scene in California, it was surprising to hear “Hands of Steel” was dropping to 170 pounds after his loss in the Le rematch. It just seemed like one weight class too far for a guy that turned professional as a heavyweight, dropped down to light heavyweight and then moved to middleweight for his UFC debut.

Saffiedine has shown a stout chin and exceptional smarts for a fighter at this stage of his career; he moves seamlessly and makes consistently smart decisions. The loss to Woodley merely showed that a better wrestler can outwrestle him. Since Smith never wrestles -- he can, but he prefers to bang on the feet -- this is a fight between a guy with many weapons and one with a few.

This is Saffiedine’s fight to lose, especially with the weight cut draining Smith. One has to doubt that Smith belongs at 170. Saffiedine’s biggest worry centers on getting caught by a knockout blow, which Smith possesses in either hand, his right in particular.

The Pick: Saffiedine will have too much movement, too many angles and too much versatility. He wins by second-round knockout.

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