Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (20-7) vs. Jared Cannonier (10-2)ANALYSIS:: Momentum may be an overrated concept in all sports analysis, yet in the prizefighting world, sometimes it pays to strike while the iron is hot. Seven weeks ago, Blachowicz was 2-4 in the UFC and facing a potential third straight loss as he headed into his Oct. 21 bout with Devin Clark. Instead, Blachowicz had a fantastic performance in front of his native Polish crowd and locked up a wacky, standing rear-naked choke. After veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was flagged for a potential anti-doping violation, Blachowicz slid right into his spot and now has the chance to upset another prospect, which for whatever reason is what he does best. Cannonier is a much different beast than Clark, though. Early and often, Clark’s takedown attempts and rushes into the clinch let Blachowicz tag him to the body, which is typically his most effective striking. Cannonier, however, possesses far more power and craft in the striking department, especially from distance. Cannonier not only has a rock-solid jab and low kicks, but he can throw different punches with his lead hand and diversify his kicking game, which includes teeps and roundhouses to the head. The “Killa Gorilla” picks his shots very well, using his basic weapons to stun his foes before methodically breaking them down while hurt, using all eight points of striking, as best evidenced in his destruction of Nick Roehrick. Blachowicz is the more accomplished submission artist, but Cannonier’s ability to survive the consistent grappling assaults of Glover Teixeira earlier this year, especially late in the fight while fatigued, suggest he is more than able to avoid the Pole’s best efforts. Despite being 33 years old, Cannonier still has real upside at 205 pounds and is just coming into his own; the Blachowicz bout seems to be a perfect style pairing for him to show off the surprising well-roundedness and well-known power in his game, especially if he can tire out the often-listless Blachowicz early on. Cannonier by thumping decision is the pick.
Middleweight
Julian Marquez (6-1) vs. Darren Stewart (7-2)ODDS: Marquez (-350), Stewart (+290)
ANALYSIS:: The biggest favorite on this card and by a fair margin, the hype behind Marquez is a byproduct of his appearance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in August, when he decapitated once-coveted prospect Phil Hawes with a brutal head kick. He is also facing Stewart, who accepted the fight on less than two weeks’ notice for an injured Vitor Miranda and was just choked out by Karl Roberson at UFC Fight Night 120 less than a month ago. Stewart entered the UFC at 7-0 but has not yet passed muster. In fact, the only offense he has really generated in his three UFC fights was the head butt he used to send the first Francimar Barroso fight to hell in a hand basket. Stewart has some power in his hands, but he is not the punching threat Marquez has shown himself to be, nor is he as well-rounded with his strikes. Marquez has admitted to struggling with the cut to 185 pounds and can throw his punches wide and weary at times; this may be possible to exploit if Stewart was a fitter fighter himself and was not going to struggle to get to a point where Marquez has slowed down. Worse, Stewart is not especially active from distance and likes to incite clinch brawls, which is where Marquez seems to shine, ripping off tight hockey-style uppercuts and hooks. “The Cuban Missile Crisis” is not a top-flight prospect -- certainly not with that nickname -- but Stewart should help him camouflage his holes and underline his strengths. Marquez wins by knockout in the first half of the fight.
Welterweight
Chad Laprise (12-2) vs. Galore Bofando (5-2)ODDS: Laprise (-160), Bofando (+140)
ANALYSIS:: I do not mean to suggest that Laprise has never thrown a power shot, as he is coming off of two consecutive knockouts against Thibault Gouti and Brian Camozzi. Nonetheless, this fight figures to be a battle between striking fundamentals: Laprise’s jab, low kick and one-two combos against Bofando’s high-octane spinning attacks. Despite smashing up the enormous but under-skilled Camozzi, there are righteous questions about how the former “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” winner Laprise will fare at 170 pounds long-term. This is not the bout to answer those questions, as Bofando represents anything but a typical acid test. The London Shootfighters product shocked the MMA world in his UFC debut in July, throwing Conor McGregor’s homeboy, Charlie Ward, on his face, insensate. Prior to his UFC debut, he had fought just once in the previous five years, and his two pro losses resulted from kneeing wounded opposition on the mat. Bofando switches stances early and often, darting at opponents with traditional martial arts insanity. Side kicks segue into spinning hook kicks, tornado kicks and finally the hands. There is no jab or leg kick present: It is spin, spin, kick, spin, kick, spin, kick, punch, punch, punch. Laprise is the better straight boxer and likely can exploit Bofando on the ground if he can get top position, but how will he deal with his opponent’s shock-and-awe tactics? It is a testament to Bofando’s offensive arsenal that this betting line is so close, and if Laprise makes one wrong move, he could end up an animated gif for years to come. Laprise manages to land 4.87 significant strikes per minute while still being generally conservative, and his ability to throw and land consistently while remaining buttoned up defensively should serve him well here. Laprise on points is my call, largely because there is no telling how good Bofando is on the floor or how prepared he will be from a cardio standpoint. Buckle up for this one.
Flyweight
Tim Elliott (14-8-1) vs. Pietro Menga (13-0)ODDS: Elliott (-260), Menga (+260)
ANALYSIS:: With a 13-0 record and the UFC always looking for flyweights, you think getting to the big show would have been easier for Menga. However, due to rotator cuff and ACL surgeries, the Manchester, England, native has fought just once in over three years -- a 41-second knockout of Spencer Hewitt at Bellator 158 in London 17 months ago. A Team Kaobon product who now runs his own One MMA Academy in Manchester, Menga was in the running to replace an injured Joseph Benavidez against Ben Nguyen in June, a role filled by the man he faces here. In fact, Menga’s UFC chance only came after he was in negotiations to face former UFC interim bantamweight title challenger Michael McDonald at Bellator 191, only to be passed over for Peter Ligier. Justin Scoggins then suffered a spinal injury in training while preparing for Elliott, giving Menga the fateful callback. The stylistic interplay here seems obvious. The rangy Menga, a southpaw with two inches of reach on Elliott, is a powerful kicker and throws a mean left cross; he is a more technical striker than Elliott and has nice power, but the American has an iron chin and indefatigably swarms his opponents. Elliott has completed 64.8 percent of his takedowns in the Octagon, the highest rate in UFC flyweight history, while completing 4.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. He took down Benavidez three times, took down Demetrious Johnson four times and took down Louis Smolka a whopping 12 times. Whether on top or in the scrambles, Elliott is a major submission threat and works great chokes from headlock positions. However, Menga is a slick grappler and possesses a nifty guillotine, which could spell disaster if Elliott is as reckless as he was against Nguyen in June and runs into a choke again. Nonetheless, while Elliott’s hyper-aggressive grappling may get him tapped from time-to-time, he more often than not runs his opponents to the mat and out of gas with his endless wrestling, pressuring, passing and threatening; and that is against opponents who have more than two weeks’ notice. Menga is a real threat, but Elliott should do his thing here for 15 minutes and get his hand raised.
Lightweight
John Makdessi (14-6) vs. Abel Trujillo (15-7)ODDS: Trujillo (-190), Makdessi (+165)
ANALYSIS:: Makdessi is a wildcard and very often produces a difficult style matchup, even against more well-rounded opposition. At 51.4 percent, he has the second best significant strike accuracy in the UFC lightweight class, and at 72.4 percent, he holds the best significant strike defense in divisional history. Makdessi’s style is a gift and a curse, however, as it relies so much on repetitive leg kicking and avoiding his opponents, which often means his fights come down to judging preferences. This is why Makdessi has lost decisions he seems to have won, like in the Yancy Medeiros and Alan Patrick Silva Alves bouts, or can win cards he seems to have lost, like in the Mehdi Baghdad fight. Trujillo has two inches of reach on Makdessi and will be trying to rush forward, cut off the Lebanese-Canadian fighter and trap him on the fence. Inevitably, Makdessi will circle and kick at Trujillo’s legs. “Killa” does have some transitional submission skills, so Makdessi needs to be careful working back to his feet or defending the wrestling game along the fence. The bout may be determined by how extensively Trujillo can trap Makdessi and stop him from circling, as well as whether Trujillo can muscle Makdessi with punches inside. Against the swarming Trujillo, “The Bull” would be wise to employ his tricky counter jab, yet Makdessi seldom brings out the hands. This figures to be a problem once more. Even though Makdessi should do some good clean kickboxing here, he is likely to be perceived as the defensive fighter, despite being far busier than Trujillo on average. Trujillo wins close decision, one in which we could see a split decision with 30-27 scores both for men.
Middleweight
Oluwale Bamgbose (6-3) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (10-2)ODDS: Di Chirico (-120), Bamgbose (+100)
ANALYSIS:: Consider this betting line another reminder of the great equalizing impact of being a freakish athlete. Bamgbose is 1-3 in the UFC; his last two bouts were the first occasions he had ever been outside of the first round; and he has horrible striking fundamentals. Nonetheless, “The Holy War Angel” -- not great nickname technique, either -- is a hyper-explosive switch hitter who throws volleys of punches and kicks like a whirling dervish. As a result, he is nearly the favorite against the far more polished Di Chirico. Di Chirico is no technical marvel, but he is a physically strong sprawl-and-brawler who can usually stay out of trouble on the floor, though he was easily tapped by Eric Spicely in his last outing. The 28-year-old Italian does not work much of a jab, yet he is aided in this contest by the fact that Bamgbose is so reckless and attacks in such a forthright manner that it should accentuate Di Chirico’s skills as a counterpuncher. It is notable that Di Chirico gives up four inches in reach to his shorter foe, but Bamgbose is so open to be countered and swings so wildly that punches or reactionary takedowns on the American should not be the toughest task. Bamgbose will inevitably rush Di Chirico, switch stances and explode with video game-type combinations for much of the first round, perhaps taking that frame as a result. However, his miserable cardio and technical holes should result in Di Chirico picking him apart, at least over the final 10 minutes, to take a decision.
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