Preview: UFC on Fox 25 ‘Weidman vs. Gastelum’

Welterweights

Lyman Good (19-3) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (16-5): More than two years have passed since Good’s last fight. Following a knockout win in his short-notice UFC debut, Good was pulled from one fight for undisclosed reasons and then pulled from another due to a steroid found in his United States Anti-Doping Agency sample. While the commission gave Good a reduced ban due to the accidental nature of his PED issue, he has been inactive ever since. At his core, Good is a kickboxer with solid fundamentals. He is essentially a larger, slower Jose Aldo, with similarly sound footwork, a sharp jab and thudding kicks. With the actual Aldo’s recent loss to Max Holloway, Good’s model may have officially become out of date while he waited on the sidelines. Nonetheless, he is a strong fighter, and provided he has retained his talents during his extended absence, he should have a few good years in him yet. To beat an anti-wrestling kickboxer like Aldo, it took a creative, fluid new-school striker, one who throws volume and pushes the master of control into an unsustainable pace. We must ask: Is dos Santos a Holloway? He starts fast and throws hard. He maintains a consistent output -- even managing to throw 120 strikes in a fight with Keita Nakamura, who spent much of the bout holding dos Santos on the ground -- and gets creative in pursuit of the finish. To answer the question, no, he is not Holloway. Dos Santos lacks Holloway’s nuanced defense and footwork, and while he is OK on defense, Good is much better. Most importantly, Holloway is an excellent defensive wrestler. Dos Santos is not. Like Aldo, Good can shoot a good takedown when he has a mind to. The pick is Good by second-round TKO.

Middleweights

Rafael Natal (21-8-1) vs. Eryk Anders (7-0): Anders has been making waves on the regional MMA scene. A college football standout and onetime pickup for the Cleveland Browns, Anders displays the kind of athleticism in the cage that is usually found in other, more profitable sports. The Legacy Fighting Alliance organization certainly did not turn its noses up at such a prospect, and Anders won and defended that promotion’s middleweight championship before signing with the UFC. He has just two wins by decision on his record and four first-round knockouts. As he showed in his LFA title defense, he is more than capable of conserving his energy and scoring serious damage in the fourth and fifth rounds. However you slice it, Natal represents a huge step up for the young up-and-comer. Natal has been fighting professionally for 12 years, and though he is currently riding a two-fight losing streak, it was preceded by four straight wins, each impressive in its own way. Natal is a well-rounded kickboxer with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and the takedown game to make it a factor. Natal has also been inconsistent throughout his career. At times, he is a skillful fencer; at others, he seems to lose focus and flail wildly, as if desperately improvising his every move. These mistakes appear too often for Natal to ever be safe against a fighter like Anders, who not only throws explosively but in combination. He takes full advantage of the element of surprise. The pick is Anders by first-round TKO.

Welterweights

Ryan LaFlare (13-1) vs Alex Oliveira (17-3-1): Despite making his mark in the UFC with his clever striking, Oliveira has grown into a well-developed fighter over the last two years. Now that he is no longer draining himself to make lightweight, the massive Oliveira is able to make full use of his physical prowess, dragging veterans like Tim Means to the ground and grinding them to a pulp, oftentimes just before forcing a tap to a rear-naked choke. Twice before in the UFC, however, Oliveira has been submitted by elite grapplers. Whether striking or grappling, he still depends heavily on his athletic talent and has a habit of rushing through sloppy techniques. LaFlare just so happens to be a very good grappler. While he only has three submission wins to his name, LaFlare is an adept scrambler, and against all but Demian Maia, he has proven to be extraordinarily difficult to hold down. Despite good timing and agility, LaFlare is not Oliveira’s equal in the athleticism department. He will be slightly taller, but Oliveira has broad shoulders and long arms, and he is able to control strong opponents at will. If LaFlare can hit just one perfectly timed takedown in each round, he could very well win this fight. Technically, his wrestling and grappling skills are far superior. Oliveira’s physicality is like a cheat code, however, and LaFlare may have a hard time controlling the Brazilian on the ground. These days, “Cowboy” usually looks well-prepared and sticks to a game plan that makes the most of his talents. Oliveira by unanimous decision is the pick.

Heavyweights

Damian Grabowski (20-4) vs. Chase Sherman (10-3): Grabowski entered the UFC with 22 fights and a few respectable names on his record. Compared to his performances in M-1 Global and Bellator MMA, however, Grabowski has been utterly helpless in the UFC. The difference is the athletic talent of the average UFC fighter, and yes, that includes heavyweights. Men like Anthony Hamilton and Derrick Lewis have plenty of flaws, but they are big, strong and dangerous. That was enough to put Grabowski away. Sherman is not a huge puncher, but he is a solid athlete with a lot of potential; and as his last fight revealed, he also happens to be a maniac. Sherman lost two straight in the UFC, showing off his toughness, agility and not much else before a meeting with Rashad Coulter at UFC 211. Sherman threw 231 strikes in the space of eight and a half minutes. That is approximately 29 significant blows being thrown every minute at heavyweight. Did the effort exhaust Sherman? Absolutely. Did he still rely on his rock-solid chin? A lesser, saner man would have been knocked out. Sherman kept on trucking, though, and chewed up Coulter’s legs with kicks before smashing him to bits with his fists. Sherman still has a long way to go. He almost never moves his head, does not seem to have a great sense of his range and does not know when to take his foot off the gas. Against Grabowski, who seems separated from his comfort zone by an increasingly narrow bridge, Sherman’s athleticism and enthusiasm should be enough to get the job done. The pick is Sherman by first-round TKO.

Featherweights

Kyle Bochniak (7-1) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (10-0): Kennedy pushed an impressive pace in his UFC debut, but he spent a lot of time straining and stalling out while doing comparatively little damage. It was not until Kennedy beat Rony Mariano Bezerra that he demonstrated serious growth. For one, the fight was not perfect. Kennedy was stunned by the Brazilian finisher in Round 2 and had to scramble for his life. As he faced down this adversity, however, Kennedy also showed off an intelligent grappling game and a brutally efficient system of ground-and-pound. That revelation about Kennedy’s true potential makes this a compelling matchup, one in which Bochniak will be heavily incentivized to keep the Canadian from taking him down. Bochniak is an archetypal wrestle-boxer, less focused on the intricacies of chain wrestling and grappling than Kennedy. Bochniak has respectable power in his hands, but his chopping low kicks could prove critical in slowing Kennedy’s frenetic pace. However, whereas Bochniak may maintain a consistent output, his power and speed fade as the fight wears on. In both of Kennedy’s two UFC fights, he has unerringly pursued one strategy: He wears out the guy early so he can take him down and beat him up later. Bochniak has shown issues with conditioning, and Kennedy will force him to strain and struggle at every turn. Bochniak will probably find a home for his leg kicks, but a few prolonged clinches from Kennedy will cut him down to size. The pick is Kennedy by third-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Brian Kelleher (17-7) vs. Marlon Vera (9-3-1): Kelleher’s victory over Iuri Alcantara was a surprise for many. Though the fight was short, it would be a mistake to assume that Kelleher just got lucky. In just under two minutes, Kelleher adjusted to his aggressive opponent, applied heavy pressure of his own and worked himself into position for a methodical finish. That he did so with remarkable speed certainly caught Alcantara off-guard, but we have the benefit of replay and it is clear upon further review that Kelleher proved his class with the win. In comparison, Vera seems like a bit of a step down. Vera won his last two fights and looked impressive doing so, but his overall UFC record stands at 3-2. It is no wonder that Alcantara’s 9-4 run in the UFC carries a lot more weight. Still, Vera is a dangerous opponent, and at 24, he seems poised to make some surprising developments of his own in the near future. Like Alcantara, Vera uses his long legs from range to land crushing kicks. He is tough enough to eat some leather and keep going, but his execution is not quite as clean as Alcantara’s. While he kept his composure remarkably well in his short-notice tilt with Brad Pickett, it was not so long ago that Vera committed foul after foul out of helpless frustration in his fight with Davey Grant. Kelleher’s confidence and aggression should get the job done again. The pick is Kelleher by second-round submission.

Heavyweights

Timothy Johnson (11-3) vs Junior Albini (13-2): Albini has been in the fight game for eight years, and even at 26, he seems ready to make his UFC debut. A member of Brazil’s Astra Fight Team, Albini has spent the last few years fighting under the Aspera Fighting Championship banner, which seems to exist primarily to build Astra fighters toward the UFC. With a lot of careful matchmaking on their records, some Astra standouts have failed to deliver at the elite level -- Glaico Franca, for example. Others, like Darren Till, have asserted themselves as serious prospects. Albini can be a little passive when the quick finish manages to elude him, but his methodical work rate allows him to remain dangerous in the later rounds. As a sniping kickboxer with a confident submission game, Albini should find a home in the UFC. However, Johnson is nobody’s idea of a pleasant welcome committee. Johnson has five UFC fights under his belt now, and while he has traded wins and losses -- and usually failed to light the crowd on fire in the process -- he has slotted comfortably into a gatekeeper role. Whether or not he can keep “Baby” Albini at bay depends entirely on Johnson’s wrestling set-ups. Despite twice going All-American at Division II Minnesota State University, Johnson has sometimes struggled to find takedowns in the UFC. He is perfectly happy, however, to hold an opponent against the fence and force him to carry his weight. He is large and powerful, and he bridges the distance with awkward but powerful striking. Albini is a sharpshooter and Johnson is hittable, but the newcomer’s level of competition probably has not prepared him for this kind of fight. The pick is Johnson by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Shane Burgos (9-0) vs. Godofredo Castro (13-4): Burgos, like teammate Jimmie Rivera, has made waves in just a few UFC fights. Against the uber-dangerous Castro, who has gotten the finish in 12 of his 13 wins, Burgos will have the opportunity to use all that his short career has taught him. It has been 10 months since Castro’s last fight and only three since Burgos last competed, but the Brazilian has always kept an erratic schedule. Expect to see the same outrageously aggressive “Pepey” as ever, willing to throw down and looking for the knockout or submission from the first moment to the last. That wildness throws off a lot of young fighters, and Burgos is still in the early stages of his career. Reassuringly, he showed strong resolve and clever adaptation in his most recent appearance. Charles Rosa is tough and crafty everywhere. He gave Burgos pause early, but the Team Tiger Schulmann standout adjusted to his kicks, stopped his takedowns and knocked him out with a look of determined excitement on his face. While Castro’s offense is more potent than Rosa’s, Burgos now has the benefit of that learning experience and devastating power that can be called upon at any point in a fight. His confidence may come back to bite him once again, but we now know he can rein it in and fight. The pick is Burgos by second-round TKO.

Lightweights

Chris Wade (11-3) vs Frankie Perez (10-3): Despite a ledger full of submission wins, Perez is not a bad striker. He has a good eye for openings and delivers surprising power. Whether or not Perez shows off these moves has always depended on his opponent’s passivity. When Marc Diakiese slowed to a crawl, Perez punished him. Diakiese discovered, however, that Perez was badly outmatched in close range. The moment he clinched with Perez or dragged him to the ground, all of Perez’s underrated standup craft became irrelevant. In contrast, Perez is more of a momentum grappler. He can be controlled and outmaneuvered, but once he finds a takedown or a dominant position, it can be very difficult to shake him off. Whenever he is in control, Perez carefully balances his need to maintain position with the opportunity to score some hurtful shots. Wade struggled to reverse the same kind of momentum in his fight with Islam Makhachev, but in truth, Makhachev is a much more consistent grappler than Perez. He is never stuck on his back. The same cannot be said for Perez. Wade also showed some excellent scrambling ability against Makhachev, improvising his way to top position time and again. Like Perez on the feet, however, Wade can get a little overzealous on the ground and his rushed scrambling put him in some danger against a dangerous submission artist. Wade’s physicality may end up being his greatest advantage, as he will likely replicate Diakiese’s approach: stay competitive at long range, land big shots whenever possible and go for the kill in the clinch and on the ground. Wade is the pick via second-round submission.

Finish Reading » Super 8