Preview: UFC on Fox 24 ‘Johnson vs. Reis’

Heavyweights

Alexander Volkov (27-6) vs. Roy Nelson (22-13): Volkov has an opportunity to establish himself as a heavyweight contender in this fight, but standing in his way is Nelson, the hard-hitting mainstay. Nelson is defined not only by his power but by his resilience. The men who have knocked him out -- Mark Hunt and Andrei Arlovski -- are two of the hardest punchers in the world, and Nelson has managed to survive brutal beatings by similarly gifted punchers in Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos. Volkov is light on his feet with quick strikes, and his kicking game should allow him to pepper Nelson at distance. Though Nelson has lost some of his explosive speed in recent years, he is still exceptionally dangerous. Volkov is a tall fighter who rarely moves his head: an inviting target for the famous overhand right from “Big Country.” Then again, Volkov is durable. His only knockout loss came at the hands of undefeated finisher Vitaly Minakov, and it took a sustained onslaught of punches on the ground before the referee stepped in, with Volkov never actually losing consciousness. Nelson has a very good chance of scoring another trademark knockout, but he has historically struggled to plant that punch after the end of the first round. If Volkov can survive early, he can probably rack up enough points to take his second UFC victory. Volkov by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Patrick Williams (8-4) vs. Tom Duquesnoy (14-1): The crown prince of violence is finally here. For the last three years, Duquesnoy has been cracking skulls and taking names on the European regional circuit. Unlike so many other UFC debutantes, the names on his ledger have not been unimpressive. From Brendan Loughnane to Alan Philpott, Duquesnoy has taken on the best bantamweights in the British Association of Mixed Martial Arts, with his only loss coming to featherweight Makwan Amirkhani way back in 2013. Duquesnoy is a power puncher with considerable finesse. Though he likes to pressure, he tends to let his opponent throw before responding with vicious counters, and his clean wrestling allows him to control the pace and whereabouts of his fights. Duquesnoy is not afraid to roughhouse, either, and his penchant for literally shoving opponents off-balance makes him a uniquely dangerous striker. Williams has been inactive since an impressive win over Alejandro Perez in 2015, and his two knockout losses suggest that his chin will be ripe for the picking in this fight. Still, Williams is a capable wrestler who likes to set a long distance and move around on the outside. He will serve as a healthy hurdle for the Duquesnoy’s wrestling and footwork but not one that the fiery Frenchman cannot overcome. Duquesnoy by first-round knockout is the pick.

Lightweights

Bobby Green (23-7) vs. Rashid Magomedov (19-2): Magomedov was well on his way to a spot in the lightweight top 10 when he ran into Beneil Dariush in November. The Kings MMA fighter pressured him relentlessly and spent as much time as possible tying up “Goretz” in the clinch and mashing him against the fence. As a technical counterstriker with airtight takedown defense, this would seem to be the safest path to victory for any Magomedov opponent. Green is known for his flashy if inconsistent boxing, but he is a solid clinch fighter and an underrated wrestler. He is capable of making this fight hard on the Dagestani sniper. Then again, Green spent much of his fight with Edson Barboza, a fighter similar to Magomedov, taunting and doing very little to win rounds. Magomedov’s distance management and meaner-than-advertised striking will only make the task more difficult. Green has the blueprint, but unfortunately, he is not a particularly trustworthy fighter, and one suspects that his recent inactivity and two-fight losing streak have not helped matters. The pick is Magomedov by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Tim Elliott (13-7-1) vs. Louis Smolka (11-3): Elliott talked about moving to bantamweight after his admirable contest with Demetrious Johnson, but the lanky 5-foot-7 fighter returns to flyweight to fight another waylaid contender in Smolka. Though Elliott is the thicker, more muscular fighter, Smolka will actually enjoy a two-inch height advantage and a three-inch edge in reach. While he put together an impressive four-fight winning streak from 2014 to mid-2016, Smolka is winless in his last two outings. His problem seems to be one of athleticism. Against fast, powerful fighters like Brandon Moreno and Ray Borg, Smolka’s dependence on wily scrambles has cost him. Elliott will give him opportunities to grapple, but he should look like the much larger and more powerful fighter on the ground. Elliott is also a much better striker than he seems, and his pressuring style will afford him yet another method by which to overwhelm “Da Last Samurai.” Smolka does have a few late finishes on his record, so he may find an opening in the third round, where Elliott’s hard weight cut usually has an effect on his gas tank. Until then, however, Smolka may be forced to play defense -- a hard task for a fighter who excels on the attack. The pick is Elliott by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Devin Clark (7-1) vs. Jake Collier (10-3): This one should be a real scrap. Collier has earned a reputation as a live-or-die-by-the-sword type of fighter, and Clark is a super athletic prospect with a lot of room to grow. Clark’s best skill is his wrestling. He possesses excellent timing on his shots most of the time and is not shy about driving through and working hard to finish a takedown. At times, however, Clark will dive on a double-leg without properly setting it up or do so from too far away. This is because he has yet to smooth out the kinks in his kickboxing, and the relationship between his striking and grappling is still a work in progress. Clark has some pop in his hands, and he is certainly fast enough to hit Collier, nobody’s idea of a defensive genius, but he is still extremely hittable himself. Collier is an able scrambler who has worked hard on improving his wrestling game. Clark will almost certainly get him down a few times, but Collier is a high-output striker with respectable power. Collier may not spend as much time on his feet as he would like, but his willingness to bite down and exchange makes him a tough matchup for Clark while standing. The pick is Collier by second-round TKO.

Middleweights

Anthony Smith (25-12) vs. Andrew Sanchez (11-2): Sanchez appeared to approach his fight with Trevor Smith as an opportunity to work on his striking. While his improvements in that department were evident, it would be a surprise if he were to attempt something similar against a muay Thai stylist like Smith. The well-traveled Smith did well in his most recent fight, knocking out Elvis Mutapcic in the second round. Most impressive was the fact that Smith, who has consistently flagged in the later rounds, managed to surge back after spending the entire first round defending Mutapcic’s grappling. Still, we have yet to see “Lionheart” do well in the third round of a fight, and his tendency to play guard when taken down will be a problem here. Sanchez will certainly experience some difficulties if he allows Smith to pressure him with strikes, but his wrestling, grappling and physical strength should allow him to control and neutralize Smith in the early rounds. Sanchez by third-round TKO is the pick.

Bantamweights

Aljamain Sterling (12-2) vs. Augusto Mendes (6-1): Sterling gets a well-deserved step down in competition after a pair of fights against two of the bantamweight division’s toughest and most experienced fighters. Mendes is no walk in the park, however, and may be uniquely suited to give Sterling trouble. Mendes is a power puncher who tends to eschew the jab in favor of lunging right hands and a surprisingly clean left hook. Sterling has yet to develop much of a boxing game, especially in the pocket, so he may find himself in hot water if “Tanquinho” manages to close the gap. To prevent him from doing so, Sterling will use erratic footwork and a dizzying array of kicks. Sterling rarely does much damage with these strikes, and they cost a lot of energy. The approach, combined with the duress of scrambling with a seasoned grappler, saw him fade in the third round against Bryan Caraway. Where Mendes may really surprise Sterling, however, is on the ground. Sterling has made a name for himself by quickly and brutally submitting his foes, but Mendes is a three-time world champion at the black belt level and a capable wrestler, too. Mendes’ underdeveloped striking will most likely see him lose the first two rounds, but if Sterling begins to crumble, the Brazilian will test his mettle in the third. The pick is Sterling by hard-fought unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Zak Cummings (20-5) vs. Nathan Coy (15-6): Say the words “gritty wrestler,” and Coy is one of the fighters who comes to mind. So committed is Coy to his wrestling that he adopts a southpaw stance despite being right-handed for better drive on his shots. An All-American wrestler, Coy possesses the shocking physical strength typical among that breed. As an MMA veteran, Coy is far from clueless on the feet, but he needs his takedowns to stand any chance of beating Cummings. Unfortunately for Coy, Cummings has defended 71 percent of the takedowns attempted on him and popped right back up to his feet after most of the rest. Cummings is a capable wrestler in his own right, with a respectable grappling game that has earned him 10 submissions. Cummings is particularly effective with his front headlock chokes, which should come in handy whenever he manages to sprawl on one of Coy’s shots. These days, however, Cummings tends to strike with his opponents. He likes to pressure and counter, throwing his powerful left hand from a number of awkward angles. Coy is an underrated fighter, but he is 38 years old and starting to show his age in the cage. Cummings by second-round TKO is the pick.

Women’s Bantamweights

Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-1) vs Ketlen Vieira (7-0): Vieira was a brawling jiu-jitsu specialist throughout her pre-UFC career, but her big-show debut saw her fighting patiently, waiting for opportunities to score takedowns off of caught kicks and easily winning the first two rounds against a tentative Kelly Faszholz. Despite the slower pace, however, Vieira entered the third round with very little in the tank and ate punch after punch on the feet, offering very little in return. Evans-Smith has dedicated herself to becoming a better striker, but her wrestling will be key in this fight. Vieira’s kickboxing is only dangerous because it is wild, and without her takedowns, she will be forced to rely on it. So long as Evans-Smith stays sharp and does not offer Vieira her legs, she will be able to apply that ever-improving striking game of hers. Once Vieira tires, Evans-Smith should even be able to dominate her on the ground. The pick is Evans-Smith by third-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.