Preview: UFC on Fox 18 ‘Johnson vs. Bader’

Welterweights

Tarec Saffiedine (15-4) vs. Jake Ellenberger (30-10): Remember Saffiedine? The last Strikeforce welterweight champion has fought just twice since winning that belt in 2013, and he returns here after nearly 15 months on the sidelines with numerous injuries. It is all a shame, because Saffiedine is one of the most skilled kickboxers in all of MMA. The Belgian karateka is well-known for his crushing leg kicks, but he also possesses an excellent jab and the footwork necessary to put all of these weapons to use. He is a capable clinch fighter and a stout defensive wrestler, with an active guard game, to boot. If Tyron Woodley struggled to hold down Saffiedine, then it follows that a depleted Ellenberger will have even more trouble. Without his wrestling, Ellenberger is a puncher with little depth. Once known for devastating kicks and knees of his own, Ellenberger’s arsenal has been alarmingly limited since about 2012. Barring a serious physical decline on Saffiedine’s part, Ellenberger’s notorious bully mentality will not be enough to carry him to success. The pick is Saffiedine by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-1) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2): Since a disappointing start against Tristar Gym’s Chad Laprise, Aubin-Mercier’s UFC career has been one long grappling clinic. It helps that Aubin-Mercier is incredibly strong, but he is also a technical wrestler with a wide breadth of takedown finishes. On the ground, Aubin-Mercier leaves little space for his opponent to move unless he wants him to -- often into a suffocating back mount. This is what makes the fight so interesting, however, as Ferreira is tremendously difficult to control on the canvas, with butterfly- and half-guard sweeps and escapes aplenty. Unlike most of Aubin-Mercier’s opponents, he will be relatively unafraid of the takedown and therefore willing to exchange. Ferreira is nobody’s idea of a slick striker, but he throws combinations on a hair trigger and seems to have more pop in his hands than his record would suggest. Aubin-Mercier has yet to figure out the striking element, so there is an opportunity there for the Brazilian. No one has ever come close to outgrappling Aubin-Mercier, however, so he is the sensible pick. Aubin-Mercier wins by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Kevin Casey (9-3) vs. Rafael Natal (20-6): Such an oddly interesting fight and so very middleweight. Both Natal and Casey are dangerous submission grapplers, but the Brazilian is steadily improving as a striker and wrestles well enough to stop Casey’s takedowns, so I expect this fight to play out on the feet. In that realm, Casey is powerful but quite limited, typically throwing wind-up single shots before looking to reset. Natal, on the other hand, moves well from side to side, mixes up his strikes to keep the opponent guessing and even counters well in mid-range. Natal does not stand out as a particularly fit fighter, but Casey’s stamina is notably suspect. Unless he puts away Natal early, he is liable to wear down after the first round and succumb to the Brazilian’s sneaky kickboxing prowess. Natal wins by TKO.

Flyweights

Dustin Ortiz (15-4) vs. Wilson Reis (19-6): Ortiz and Reis are the twin dark horses of the flyweight division, and now they meet to decide who has the sole right to that role. Ortiz is a credible striker and a phenomenal wrestler, but his best weapons are his stamina and his pace. Ortiz sometimes starts slow, but he always finishes the last round more aggressively than he began the first. He can be taken down and hit, but he counters well in both situations and takes a heck of a shot. Reis is a little less gifted in that last area; in fact, it is a veritable expectation that he will get hurt by a clean strike at some point in every fight. Despite this, Reis is an intelligent fighter and typically recovers well. His striking is more technical than Ortiz’s but more rote, as well. He seems to throw combinations because they are the ones he practiced and not necessarily because they suit the situation. All the same, he is a sharp out-fighter in the mold of training partner Dominick Cruz, using his rapid movement and varied striking to set up expertly timed takedowns. This is a tough fight to call, but Ortiz’s breakneck pace should give him the edge over the more reserved Reis. Ortiz wins via unanimous decision.

Welterweights

George Sullivan (17-4) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (22-6-1): Sullivan will not win any awards for technicality, but he understands how to put his techniques together, jabbing to the body to open up the head and feinting in order to work his way inside. Perhaps the most underrated aspect of Sullivan’s game is his mat work. He often looks to drag his opponent down near the fence. Sullivan has excellent positional awareness in scrambles, and he is apt to chip away with punches and elbows even as he fights off reversals and submission attempts. Where Sullivan is all grimy in-fighting, Yakovlev is more of a polished out-fighter. Yakovlev prefers long range, where he mixes up his long straight left and left body kick. He mostly throws pot-shots, though he will go to work with knees in the clinch if given the chance; and he is not averse to hitting an occasional reactive takedown to break the opponent’s rhythm. If Yakovlev were a more consistent counterpuncher, he might be able to hurt Sullivan coming in, but his commitment to distance does not allow him to mix up things in mid-range very often. The pick is Sullivan by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Alex Caceres (10-8) vs. Masio Fullen (10-5): Caceres has always been an up-and-down fighter, but durability has seemed to be a problem for him lately. A move up to featherweight could help on that front, and Caceres is getting a relatively soft touch in “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” contestant Fullen. Offensively, Fullen is not a bad striker, with powerful kicks and well-timed punches. His upright style and willingness to trade makes him susceptible to counters, however, and he can be taken down as he rushes forward. Caceres can be hittable himself, but he has a better understanding of range and the long frame to use it. Both men are slow starters, so they may both struggle to take advantage of one another’s vulnerabilities in the early going. Caceres does not have the wrestling to manhandle Fullen, but he is a truly dangerous submission artist in wild scrambles, such as the one that saw Fullen submitted by Makwan Amirkhani. The pick is Caceres by third-round submission.

Featherweights

Damon Jackson (9-1) vs Levan Makashvili (7-2): At last, a chance to watch blue-chip prospect Makashvili with a full camp behind him. In both of his short-notice UFC appearances, the New Yorker has displayed speed, timing and dogged determination. All of the athletic pieces are in place; all that remains is for Makashvili to add technique and experience. Jackson is a prime opponent for this purpose, an aggressive grappler who tends to struggle with more athletic opponents. Essentially, Jackson needs his opponent on the ground in order to win the fight, but he has been submitted in both of his UFC bouts. I see Makashvili keeping his distance to avoid Jackson’s reactive takedowns, fending him off in the clinch and landing hard shots against the fence en route to a late finish. Makashvili wins by third-round TKO.

Lightweights

Tony Martin (9-3) vs Felipe Olivieri (14-4): Aggression, aggression, aggression. Those are the three words that best define Olivieri, who makes his UFC debut in this one. Olivieri’s game is as well-rounded as you would expect from a Nova Uniao fighter, but his commitment to forward movement and powerful striking leaves him susceptible to takedowns and counters. Nonetheless, he has an aggressive guard game designed to threaten submissions and return him to his feet or to top position. A relative newcomer himself, Martin has struggled to put everything together in his four UFC fights, three of which have not gone his way. Martin is long and tall but too tentative in the striking. He is a force to be reckoned with on the ground, but he has tended to exhaust himself in prolonged exchanges. Still, Martin should be able to find the early takedown, and that puts Olivieri in a tough position. The pick is Martin by first-round submission.

Welterweights

Matt Dwyer (8-3) vs Randy Brown (6-0): It is unfortunate when an analyst has to make a call with limited information, but unfortunately there is little footage available for the debuting Brown. The 25-year-old undefeated prospect appears to be a fine athlete with considerable power, but he is also somewhat reckless -- understandable when you consider he has only had six professional fights against a mostly questionable level of competition. Dwyer, on the other hand, is much more proven. He is hittable and hurtable, but it takes a real power puncher to put him out for good, and he has enough power of his own to keep opponents honest. All eight of his wins have come via knockout. Dwyer can be taken down, but he uses his length wisely from the bottom, trapping and waiting for his opportunity to stand up rather than playing guard. Brown has the potential to surprise, but Dwyer is the safer pick. He wins by second-round TKO.