Albert Tumenov owns eight first-round finishes. | Photo: Neil Atkinson/Sherdog.com
WELTERWEIGHTS
Nicholas Musoke (13-3, 3-1 UFC) vs. Albert Tumenov (14-2, 2-1 UFC): Two promising young welterweights meet in a potential barnburner. Sweden’s Musoke has shown real promise in his brief UFC career, losing only to rising phenom Kelvin Gastelum, while the equally promising Tumenov dropped a competitive debut to Ildemar Alcantara and has since strung together a pair of highlight-reel knockouts. Musoke is a decent and rapidly improving kickboxer, though he is far too hittable and does his best work dirty-boxing in the clinch and from top position. Tumenov is a talented striker with shocking power, especially in his left hook, and a knack for landing the high kick with either leg. He is also a skilled wrestler and excels at turning caught kicks into takedowns, and he is capable of doing real damage from top position. Musoke might be able to grind this out in the clinch and from top position, but I think it more likely for Tumenov to land big shots on the defensively suspect Swede. The pick is Tumenov by knockout in the second round.
WELTERWEIGHTS
Kenny Robertson (14-3, 3-3 UFC) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-1, 0-0 UFC): Dagestani sambo specialist and Bellator MMA veteran Aliev makes his long-awaited UFC debut against the experienced Robertson. Aliev is a well-rounded fighter who can do a bit of everything. He packs legitimate power in his hands and works behind a crisp jab, but he is at his best chaining shot takedowns, trips and throws in the clinch and bombing his opponent with hard shots from top position. Robertson is athletically limited, but he is a crafty wrestle-grappler who tends to get his takedowns by grinding his opponents with relentless dirty boxing and then working chained attempts against the cage. On the ground, Robertson really shines, with a heavy base, solid passes and hard strikes, all of which set up his opportunistic array of submissions. If this goes to the ground, Robertson’s craft should give him an edge, but I think Aliev will succeed in stuffing the American’s takedowns, outfighting him in the clinch and landing just enough at range. Aliev by decision is the pick.
FEATHERWEIGHTS
Andy Ogle (9-5, 1-4 UFC) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (10-2, 0-0 UFC): Journeyman Ogle, who has lost four times in five UFC appearances, gets one more shot against debuting Finn Amirkhani. Ogle’s game is defined by his toughness, cardio and well-rounded skill sets. He does not stand out in any one area but is competent at everything, and he is at his best in transitions. Amirkhani is a big, strong, athletic wrestle-grappler with a slick arsenal of submissions and an emphasis on quick-paced scrambles. Ogle is better than his 1-4 UFC record shows, and I think he can avoid Amirkhani’s submission attempts, exploit the Finn’s frankly awful striking and outwork him. Ogle by decision is the pick.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS
Stanislav Nedkov (12-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Nikita Krylov (17-4, 2-2 UFC): Bulgarian wrestler Nedkov returns from a layoff of nearly two years and draws the Ukrainian Krylov, who most recently knocked out Cody Donovan in July. Nedkov is billed as a wrestler, and he does possess some powerful takedowns, but his real strength lies in forward-moving combinations of winging punches and following them into the clinch. Krylov is an unorthodox, karate-style kickboxer who throws a lot of volume -- and not a bad one at that; the problem is his undeveloped wrestling game and low level of skill on the mat. It is hard to say what Nedkov will look like after such a long layoff, but his greater physicality and wrestling advantage should lead to a ground-and-pound stoppage in the second round.
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Mairbek Taisumov (22-5, 2-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Christodoulou (12-4, 0-0 UFC): Rising Chechen Taisumov, who most recently knocked out Marcin Bandel in October, returns to action against the debuting Christodoulou. Taisumov is a fighter with offensive skill in every phase, but he also has substantial defensive liabilities. For example, he throws hard punching combinations and vicious kicks on the feet but is quite hittable in return, and while he is a talented offensive wrestler, his takedown defense is far from impenetrable. Christodoulou, on the other hand, is a fairly solid wrestler and clinch fighter and does his best work from top position. However, he is an almost indescribably deficient striker and lacks much in the way of athleticism. Taisumov will eat the debutante alive on the feet and knock him out in the first round.
HEAVYWEIGHTS
Viktor Pesta (9-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Konstantin Erokhin (9-1, 0-0 UFC): Hyped heavyweight prospect Erokhin makes his UFC debut against Pesta, who dropped his first fight in the Octagon to Ruslan Magomedov in April. Erokhin is polished and experienced, and he owns victories over Brett Rogers, Dave Huckaba and Richard Odoms. The Russian is a talented and hyper-athletic sprawl-and-brawler with some of the most ridiculously powerful punches I have ever seen, although he often lapses into inactivity, does not throw much volume and lacks weapons from outside punching distance. Pesta, who has spent this camp training at Alliance MMA in San Diego and the Allstars Training Center in Sweden, has a broader skill set. He throws punches and kicks with some power but really shines when he can put his technical wrestling and grappling games to good use, and he excels in the clinch. The problem for Pesta in this matchup is his subpar defense and vulnerability to counter shots. I think Erokhin will land big combinations, but I would not be surprised if Pesta were able to grind him down and take a decision or late submission. The pick is Erokhin by first-round knockout.
FEATHERWEIGHTS
Mirsad Bektic (8-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Paul Redmond (10-4, 0-0 UFC): Blue-chip prospect Bektic returns to action against Irish debutante Redmond, who steps in on late notice to replace the injured Alan Omer. Bektic, an American Top Team product, is one of the best prospects on the planet. He is a physical monster with great athleticism and brutal strength, which comes through most clearly in his explosive double-leg and vicious top game. Redmond is an aggressive, durable pressure fighter whose game is predicated on surprisingly crisp counterpunching in the pocket, decent takedowns and venomous submissions, most notably the toehold. Redmond is a solid fighter, but Bektic holds massive physical advantages in addition to the benefit of a full camp and top-notch team. The pick here is Bektic by ground-and-pound knockout in the second round.
FLYWEIGHTS
Chris Beal (10-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Neil Seery (14-10, 1-1 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter 18” veteran Beal drops to flyweight for the first time and gets a stiff test in Irish action fighter Seery. Beal is mostly a boxer who packs some power in the forward-moving combinations he likes to throw, but he lacks much in the way of other reliable tools. He can wrestle a bit and does good work from top position, but it is a firmly secondary skill set. Seery is mostly a pressure-oriented boxer -- and a fairly talented one, with good head movement, smooth combinations and real pop in his hands; and his takedown defense is quite good. If this plays out as a boxing match on the feet, I like the Irishman’s polish, proven power and consistent output. The pick is Seery by decision.