Bantamweights
Brian Kelleher (24-13) vs. Mario Bautista (9-2)Odds: Bautista (-165), Kelleher (+140)
Back to prospect-testing duty for Brian Kelleher. Kelleher's had an interesting UFC career thus far, as he can be an inconsistent fighter; his first two UFC fights essentially told the story, as he debuted with a quick upset submission over Iuri Alcantara, only to turn around and suffer the same fate in a loss to Marlon Vera. The Long Islander was essentially a finished product upon making it to the UFC after a successful regional career; he's consistently dangerous but prone to cold starts, leading to a kill-or-be-killed approach that rarely saw Kelleher make it to the final horn - at least until he started pivoting to a wrestling-heavy approach in his last few wins. Kelleher's carved out an odd niche for himself, often racking up wins over the fringes of the UFC roster until suddenly getting a step up to an elite prospect or a fringe contender, at which point "Boom" loses and gets knocked all the way back down the bantamweight ladder. So in a way, after his March loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, it's nice to see him get a more difficult test in his attempt to rebound here against Mario Bautista. Bautista is an entertaining scrapper who, like many before him, is learning to weave some better defense into his game in order to hang at the UFC level. Cory Sandhagen was a ridiculously tough first test upon his late-notice signing, but Bautista has been slowly improving since, looking particularly impressive in his last outing; after giving up a sudden knockout to Trevin Jones last year, Bautista put in a much more measured and complete performance against Jay Perrin in February. If Bautista can look that consistent over 15 minutes here, this could be a breakout win - though the bet is that a veteran like Kelleher, between his craft and a surprising amount of power, can find enough defensive holes that still exist in Bautista's game to separate himself on the scorecards, if not find a finish outright. This should be a fun one; the pick is Kelleher via decision.
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