Lightweights
Drew Dober (20-9) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (8-5)ODDS: Dober (-335), Reyes (+275)
It took a while, but Dober has finally carved out his niche in the UFC’s deep lightweight division. Through his first few fights, he did not show much in the way of UFC-level skill -- his first win in the Octagon basically resulted from Jamie Varner dropping himself on his head -- but starting with his 2016 win over Scott Holtzman, things finally started to click into place. Dober is apparently the one man from the Midwest who is not a wrestler first, as the meat and potatoes of his game is a tireless high-volume, low-power kickboxing approach. Dober has slowly worked some wrestling into his attack as needed, and a run of five wins in six fights earned him a deserved shot at Beneil Dariush in March. Dober eventually got caught in an armbar but looked solid up to that point, and as a reliably fun fighter who still looks to be improving, he should keep getting some featured slots going forward.
This fight looks to be about excitement, not development, as Dober gets matched with Mexico’s Reyes, one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster. Reyes did not particularly stand out during Season 2 of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” but upon the start of his proper UFC run, he started to excel as a power hitter. His UFC 199 war against Dong Hyun Ma remains one of the best under-the-radar fights of the last few years, and as recently as two fights ago, he absolutely obliterated talented prospect Matt Frevola. Reyes does have a clear ceiling, however, as more well-rounded fighters tend to pick him apart. James Vick ran through him without much trouble and Damir Hadzovic managed to mix in some wrestling on his way to a one-sided win in February. Future contender status is not likely to be in the cards, but Reyes can provide violence for as long as the UFC sees fit to keep him around.
Even a year ago, this would have had a much higher chance of being a fun war, as Dober has developed the skills to make this a much easier night at the office. On the feet, Dober’s volume approach and Reyes’ wild power make for an interesting dynamic, but in his last few appearances, Dober has shown enough wrestling that he should be able to control this bout and quietly win rounds. Reyes figures to remain dangerous during standup exchanges, but Dober seems to be a reliably smart fighter, so it is hard not to see him taking a workmanlike approach and keep himself from taking damage. The pick is Dober to grind out a decision victory.
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