Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Volkov vs. Struve’

Welterweights

Darren Till (14-0-1) vs. Bojan Velickovic (15-4-1): This should be an interesting fight, but Till should be favored to win it. Technically speaking, Till has looked virtually flawless in the UFC, excepting the round in which he dislocated his shoulder and took a beating from the tough Nicolas Dalby. Because he likes to fight with his hands down, Till can be hit, but he is devilishly difficult to hit clean. He also has what fighters call great “eyes.” Very little escapes his attention in the cage. Velkickovic is similar to Till in many ways. A southpaw, Velickovic likes to work kicks and single strikes from the outside. What Velickovic lacks is Till’s rhythm, timing and speed. He often looks sluggish rather than fluid, awkward rather than graceful. Velickovic’s kickboxing did show new signs of life in his last fight, however. Despite experiencing no shortage of difficulties, Velickovic used improved footwork and defense to his advantage, successfully shortening the range with Nicholas Musoke and setting him up for a memorable third-round knockout. Against Till, who is not only younger and quicker than Musoke but more skillful, as well, Velickovic will have a hard time replicating that result. In the absence of the knockout, Velickovic is a capable grinder. Till will meet his clinches with a Thai approach, wrenching his man around by the neck and firing off elbows and knees. One possible avenue for Velickovic is wide open, however: Till is prone to long bouts of inactivity, happy to rely on his subtle defense and steal big shots here and there. If Velickovic can cut off the cage and pressure Till, he could win on volume. Either way, both men should bring the best out of each other. The pick is Till via unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Mairbek Taisumov (26-5) vs. Felipe Silva (8-0): One wonders what the UFC plans to do with Taisumov. With a 5-1 record in the promotion, the 29 year-old Chechen fighter has proven himself worthy of a step up in competition, and with knockouts in his last four bouts, he seems more than ready for it. Yet with visa issues keeping him out of the United States, here is Taisumov being set up to knock off yet another untested fighter. Of course, Silva is not to be overlooked. A ferocious power puncher, the Brazilian has finished all but one of his opponents in the first round. He kicks and counters well, throws hard to the body and walks through punches to land, if necessary. This talent will likely be his undoing against Taisumov, however. Though he does not offer much in the way of head movement, Taisumov pairs an iron chin with superb footwork, surviving the worst punches and taking the sting off of others, if not evading them completely. If Silva can lull Taisumov into a brawl, his lack of head movement could present an opportunity for the Brazilian. Nonetheless, Taisumov will also be hitting Silva in return. If he needs to fight back, he can. Taisumov has also spent a lot of time training his wrestling with the Turkish national team, so he may choose to test Silva’s takedown defense. In any case, Taisumov’s experience and craft are hefty advantages over an older but less proven fighter. Taisumov by second-round TKO is the pick.

Lightweights

Michel Prazeres (22-2) vs. Mads Burnell (8-1): Like his countryman Francisco Trinaldo, Prazeres has worked hard to bring new meaning to the phrase “old-man strength.” At 36, Prazeres should be well beyond his prime, and yet he persists in getting better with each fight, launching his squat, 5-foot-6 frame around the Octagon with greater and greater ease. Experience is a likely culprit. Prazeres, like Trinaldo, is a muscle-bound fire hydrant. Those bulging shoulders need oxygen to work, and Prazeres’ explosive style is and always will be taxing. With a few years of UFC fights under his belt, however, Prazeres is starting to look more and more comfortable in the cage. This sense of ease allows him to steal moments of rest wherever he can: leaning on an opponent in the clinch, flashing a stay-busy jab from range and settling into top position rather than passing straight away. The result is a Prazeres who gets tired but always manages to find a second wind. Burnell is a short-notice replacement for grappling savant Islam Makhachev, who pulled out of the date citing injury. While Burnell’s 8-1 record is none too glamorous upon close inspection, he does have solid wins over tough opponents like Emerick Youmbi and Fernando Duarte. The latter’s own record is largely fluff, but he has more than enough experience that Burnell submitting him in the first round means something. Burnell is a solid wrestler with a mauling grappling style. Prazeres does not have great takedown defense, so the Dane could find something there. Still, the short notice hurts him, as does Prazeres’ aggression and experience. Prazeres by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Rustam Khabilov (21-3) vs. Desmond Green (20-5): The 30 year-old Khabilov seems to have settled into the role of a gatekeeper. His fights are almost always close, but he usually finds a way to make his opponent work while carefully managing his own energy expenditure. When Khabilov does find the chance to explode, he is dangerous. Whether through wheel kicks, suplexes or stunning power punches, Khabilov makes up for his general inactivity with sudden spurts of vivid violence. Thus, Khabilov is a perfect opponent for Green, who seemed to finally put all the pieces together in his UFC debut. Green used smooth footwork and a stinging jab to control Josh Emmett from long range. He started cautiously and then built up steam as Emmett tired. Keeping things interesting with his wrestling, Green won the fight artfully but not without hurting Emmett twice in the third round. If Green can maintain similar output in this bout, he stands a good chance of beating Khabilov on points, though if the Russian finds the mark with one of his big shots, Green may have to lean on his wrestling to survive. The pick is Green by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Francimar Barroso (19-5) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (8-1): In some ways, newcomer Rakic is similar to Barosso’s last opponent, Darren Stewart. That makes this fight a little difficult to call. Stewart forced Barosso to quit with an incidental uppercut in their first meeting and then failed to maintain his momentum against a tactically superior Barroso in the rematch. Like Stewart, Rakic is used to finishing opponents quickly, though he does tend to maintain his stamina a little better. He has also fought fairly unimpressive competition. Unlike Stewart, Rakic is not a clinch fighter, though he will pepper his foes with the occasional knee. Indeed, at 6-foot-4, Rakic is a far cry from Stewart’s stout frame, and he prefers to work jabs and right hands from range. His speed could be a problem for Barroso, who will need to throw plenty of kicks and pursue the takedown early and often to keep from being outpointed on the feet. Barroso’s wrestling is both underrated and underused, and he is a capable top-position grappler and scrambler. If he can drag Rakic to the ground, he will have a strong chance. However, Rakic is not blind to the ground game despite his kickboxing background. Still, Barroso is capable of pushing the pace and grinding down his opponents, which should be all the edge he needs against a relatively inexperienced opponent. Barroso by unanimous decision is the pick.

Featherweights

Zabit Magomedsharipov (12-1) vs. Mike Santiago (21-9): Blue-chip prospect Magomedsharipov was expected to face German journeyman Nick Hein at this event, but an injury compelled Santiago to step up, arguably making this a much tougher fight for the young Russian. Magomedsharipov is a lanky giant for the featherweight division, towering over his opponents at 6-foot-1 and touching them up from long range with his 26-inch arms. He is dangerous and technically sound, looking a lot like a Soviet-style boxer with his efficient footwork and crunching counterpunches. Nonetheless, Santiago made a statement when he knocked out Mark Cherico on Week 7 of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Santiago is an aggressive puncher who lives and dies by the sword, having gone to decision only five times in 30 fights. He benefits from that experience, especially since he is only two years older than the relatively untested Magomedsharipov. Santiago also has some pro boxing experience, and it shows in his efficient head movement and crunching combinations punches. The short notice and the fact that he just finished another fight camp could slow him down, and Magomedsharipov will be happy to pick him off from long range if he fades. If Santiago is in shape, this looks like three rounds of back-and-forth action. The pick is Magomedsharipov by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Bojan Mihajlovic (10-5) vs. Abdul-Kerim Edilov (16-4): Mihajlovic is still in the UFC after two atrocious losses, and now we know why. The UFC is interested in building Edilov, one of the most promising light heavyweight prospects in the world and a fighter ready for the big show. While the records may appear comparable on the surface, Mihajlovic has only ever beaten novices and club fighters, whereas Edilov, who is currently riding a 10-fight winning streak, has at least taken out a few solid journeymen. Edilov also trains with an excellent team of fighters, which just happens to be affiliated with a murderous political regime. Bad karma will not stop Edilov from having his way with Mihajlovic, however. Moving to light heavyweight was the best decision the Serbian slugger ever made, but even there, his limited technique is not enough to make up for his squat frame. Edilov will take the first opportunity he gets to close the gap and take down Mihajlovic, which tends to presage a swift progression to dominant position and, ultimately, submission. The pick is Edilov by first-round submission.

Lightweights

Andrew Holbrook (28-15) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-3): After a scheduled bout with Dong Hyun Kim fell through, Gouti was blessed with a more forgiving opponent and a much-needed chance to bounce back from a three-fight skid. Gouti is a hard-hitting boxer with a serviceable top game, though his preference for aggression often allows his opponents to scramble free. Holbrook will absolutely look to do that, and he may snatch a sneaky submission if Gouti tangles with him on the ground too long. On the feet, however, Holbrook is decidedly less dangerous. With only one TKO win to his name and two virtually instantaneous knockout losses in the UFC, Holbrook’s path to victory is limited and treacherous. Holbrook can be a surprisingly capable wrestler, but his style usually requires the opponent to engage on the ground, where he can find submissions and paths to the back from a versatile front headlock. Gouti is not an outstanding defensive wrestler but he can move and hit, and his barely-there head movement will not be much of a problem against a more tepid striker. The pick is Gouti by second-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.