Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Penn’

Bantamweights

Frankie Saenz (11-4) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-1): It will always be a shame that Saenz waited so long to begin his MMA career, but even so, the former King of the Cage champion has a knack for this sport. His striking skills are fairly reductive, but he knows how to use them, typically coming off like an aggressive, heavy-handed version of Frankie Edgar, complete with smooth scrambling and surprising takedowns. In Mendes, Saenz faces a phenomenal athlete with outstanding jiu-jitsu but one whose lack of MMA experience is a major hurdle. Mendes is aggressive and powerful, but he is also hittable and not particularly comfortable on the feet. Saenz brings the sort of reckless pressure that is always difficult for inexperienced fighters to overcome, and unless Mendes finds an opening on the ground, he will run headfirst into the same hurdle. Saenz by first-round knockout is the pick.

Heavyweights

Alexey Oleynik (50-10-1) vs. Viktor Pesta (10-3): Look at those numbers. This heavyweight matchup might not inspire much excitement, but at the very least, there is something interesting about seeing the most experienced fighter in the division against one of the rawest prospects. Pesta’s young UFC career has been one of stops and starts. He dug deep to outwrestle Konstantin Erokhin in 2015 but fell victim to the heavy hands of Derrick Lewis in his next bout and the laser-guided shin of Marcin Tybura a year later. His toughness and will cannot be questioned but his skills are badly in need of development, and Oleynik is well-equipped to take advantage. Oleynik’s style is a curious mishmash of heavy punches, awkward head movement and catch-wrestling style submissions: His scarf-hold compression choke is a personal favorite. It does not always fit together neatly, but Oleynik’s options are many and Pesta’s are few. The pick is Oleynik by third-round submission.

Lightweights

Alex White (11-2) vs. Tony Martin (10-3): White was seen as nothing more than a brawler when he fought Artem Lobov in February, so it was a pleasant surprise when he used ringcraft and guile to outbox Lobov en route to a comfortable unanimous decision. White’s long arms were a key factor in that victory, and that could presage a struggle with Tony Martin, who will enjoy a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Granted, Martin is nowhere near as comfortable as White on the feet, but a generous wingspan is useful on the ground, as well, and that is where Martin’s strength lies. Unfortunately for White, he is not a great defensive wrestler; and while Martin’s wrestling needs some work, as well, he is a massive lightweight with significant physical strength. Martin will likely get White to the ground and outwork him, though his gas tank bears watching: He tends to slow down from one round to the next, while White has no such problem despite throwing at a significantly higher clip. It could go either way, but expect White to survive the early grappling exchanges and take a late win. White by third-round TKO is the pick.

Heavyweights

Walt Harris (8-5) vs. Chase Sherman (9-2): Both Harris and Sherman were treated unkindly in their UFC debuts. For Sherman, a powerful and athletic kickboxer with holey defense, it turned into an exhibition for the lightning-quick hands of former boxer Justin Ledet. For Harris, it was actually a string of misfortunes. A decision loss to Jared Rosholt, a quick knockout at the hands of Nikita Krylov and a win outside the UFC were quickly followed by another crushing loss back on the big stage. Harris has made some strides, however, and looked sharp and focused en route to his knockout win over Cody East, which was followed by a competitive loss to the crafty Shamil Abdurakhimov. Harris is an explosive, dynamic heavyweight in the mold of Francis Ngannou, except that he prefers to fight from a longer distance using quick, single strikes. Sherman’s biggest advantage in this matchup should be his chin, and while he is more hittable than Harris, he is also far more durable. Harris has been knocked out twice, whereas Sherman was able to absorb an absurd amount of punishment in his last fight. Harris seems to have learned from his losses, however, and his growing confidence should allow him to dictate the range and pick off Sherman on the way in. I also expect Sherman will struggle to work his meat-and-potatoes striking style against a quick southpaw. This one is a real toss-up, but the pick is Harris by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-2) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-5): Ansaroff may be riding a two-fight losing streak, but most agreed she deserved the nod over Justine Kish in her last effort and no one can deny that she looked much improved. Her footwork was sharp and her combinations were flying; in fact, Ansaroff more than quadrupled the striking output of her previous fight. Perhaps these rapid improvements should not come as a surprise. American Top Team, where Ansaroff trains, has arguably the best women’s team in the world. It includes Tecia Torres, Jessica Aguilar, Valerie Letourneau, strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, Ansaroff’s girlfriend. Jones-Lybarger cannot possibly enjoy such a wealth of female training partners, but John Crouch of the MMA Lab is an excellent trainer in his own right. Unfortunately, the style matchup simply does not favor her. In both of her UFC fights, Jones-Lybarger has been outmaneuvered by fighters who allow her to come forward and pick her off on the way in -- just as Ansaroff did to Kish. Provided the judges are paying attention this time, the pick is Ansaroff by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Devin Powell (8-1) vs. Drakkar Klose (6-0-1): Two lightweights make their UFC debuts in this Fight Pass prelim. Though he has only racked up two more fights than his opponent, Powell has been fighting professionally twice as long as Klose, who made his first pro appearance almost exactly two years ago. Both men are punchers, but Klose typically seems more comfortable engaging on the feet, whereas Powell has more of a traditional muay Thai approach that benefits from space. Klose is not likely to put massive pressure on Powell, but he is willing to counter in aggressive bursts, and that might be his biggest edge in this fight. Powell prefers to fight on the ground when he can, and his heavy hands are particularly dangerous from top position. However, it does not appear that he possesses much of a takedown game. Then again, we know very little about Klose’s takedown defense. It is a matchup full of question marks, but Klose seems to be the better athlete and the more confident striker. Every round starts on the feet, so the pick is Klose by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Joachim Christensen (13-4) vs. Bojan Mihajlovic (10-4): Mihajlovic entered the UFC as a heavyweight and had the unfortunate duty of facing Francis Ngannou, the most promising heavyweight prospect we have seen in quite a while. Considering how dramatically Mihajlovic was dwarfed by Ngannou, the move to light heavyweight seems to suit him, but he has not drawn an easy matchup for his first bout at 205 pounds. The word “bully” seems to suit Mihajlovic’s style well: He is a powerful puncher who thrives when he feels stronger than his opponent. He may enjoy a strength advantage over Christensen, but it is difficult to find another clear advantage for the Serbian. Christensen is a black belt in jiu-jitsu with a solid muay Thai game, as evinced by the knee with which he nearly finished Luis Henrique da Silva in his own UFC debut. If Mihajlovic can land a big shot early, he could very well take this, but Christensen is as durable as he is crafty. Christensen by second-round submission is the pick.

Heavyweights

Dmitry Smoliakov (8-1) vs. Cyril Asker (7-2): They call a fight like this “sorting out the division.” Both Smoliakov and Asker were signed to the UFC in 2016, and both were absolutely crushed by more promising prospects. Now they will throw down to justify their place in the UFC. Both men are accustomed to first-round wins, and both are probably unsuited to longer fights at this point. Smoliakov is the more natural striker, and he carries massive power in his hands. Asker’s striking is more straightforward and typically serves to set up his clinch takedowns, from which he works a similarly straightforward ground game. Smoliakov has a solid wrestling background, and he will stop Asker’s takedowns for at least one round, which will probably be all he needs. Asker is simply too slow and too hittable to contend with dangerous strikers. The pick is Smoliakov by first-round knockout.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.