Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Caceres’

Middleweights

Trevor Smith (13-6) vs. Joseph Gigliotti (7-0)

THE MATCHUP: Gigliotti made some waves in his Resurrection Fighting Alliance debut -- and for good reason. Just 22 years old, he trains out of the Power MMA camp and absolutely tore through the tough John Poppie. Gigliotti’s game is built on aggression. He flourishes on the ground, where he has submitted four opponents and knocked out the other three. Knowing this, he tends to shoot for the takedown early in his fights, using his strength and speed to catch opponents off-guard. He is not, however, lost when the takedown fails to materialize and does a good job of landing strikes in the transition between shot and tie-up.

Smith represents a serious test for Gigliotti. Though he has been overwhelmed by aggressive, athletic opponents in the past, Smith is also quite experienced, having racked up 10 fights under the Strikeforce and UFC banners. Smith is an awkward fighter, a wrestler who throws bizarre punches out of his ungainly looking crouch. On the feet, his best range is the clinch, where Smith uses a smothering, pressuring approach to neutralize his opponent and set up punishing knees and uppercuts.

The wrestling and grappling phases should be the most interesting in this fight. As noted above, Gigliotti is a willing grappler and rarely stands for more than 30 seconds without looking for a blast double. Smith’s offensive wrestling has not always been there in the UFC, but he is difficult to take down and even more difficult to control on the ground. In fact, Smith and Gigliotti are both at their best from top position. Smith likes to grind and wear out his opponent before looking for a submission, while Gigliotti prefers to clobber his opponent with hammerfists before taking the back or jumping on a guillotine.

Stamina may be a factor in this fight. Gigliotti has faded in the past, while Smith rarely does. Then again, Smith rarely gets out of a certain set pace, while Gigliotti comes out hot and looks to overwhelm from the get-go. Down the stretch, however, Smith’s workmanlike style could force Gigliotti into some tough spots and test the young fighter’s resolve.

THE ODDS: Gigliotti (-140), Smith (+120)

THE PICK: Commentators love to rail about the disadvantages of muscle mass, but in Gigliotti’s case, the concern is warranted. A massive, muscle-bound fighter, “Capo” had serious problems as a welterweight. Now that he fights at 185 pounds, the problem may be mitigated, but a leaky gas tank is a serious liability against a grinder like Smith. Fortunately for Gigliotti, reckless aggression is Smith’s greatest weakness. No world-class athlete himself, Smith has been run over by men like Caio Magalhaes, Thales Leites and Gian Villante, and he even struggled with the extremely inexperienced but very athletic Brian Houston. Smith could enjoy a late win, but the most likely result is a first-round knockdown and submission for Gigliotti.

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