Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rockhold vs. Bisping’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Jake Matthews (7-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Vagner Rocha (11-3, 1-2 UFC): Veteran Rocha has gone 4-0 since being released from the UFC in 2012 and returns to face rising Australian youngster Matthews. Rocha, a talented grappler with decent ancillary skills, will get a stiff test from a physical specimen and fantastic clinch fighter in Matthews. This seems fairly straightforward: The bigger, stronger, more technical wrestler, Matthews will stuff Rocha’s takedown attempts and beat him up in the clinch and at range for a dominant decision.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Anthony Perosh (14-8, 4-5 UFC) vs. Carlos Augusto Filho (6-3, 0-1 UFC): Given the list of fighters Perosh has faced in his nine prior UFC outings, you might be forgiven for thinking matchmaker Joe Silva has it in for the venerable Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Filho is an enormous light heavyweight, making the cut down after losing to Derrick Lewis at heavyweight, and he packs a big punch to go along with technical kickboxing and solid secondary skills. Aside from pure grappling, “Guto Inocente” holds the advantage in every phase, along with substantial edges in youth and athleticism. Filho by knockout in the first round is the pick.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Sam Alvey (23-6, 0-1 UFC) vs. Dylan Andrews (17-5, 2-1 UFC): Alvey looks to get back on track in his second UFC appearance against “The Ultimate Fighter 17” veteran Andrews, who returns from an 11-month layoff after losing to Clint Hester in December. Alvey has a great chin and can do a little of everything, but he is fairly slow and lacks an outstanding skill set. Andrews has power in his hands, solid boxing skills and can do enough of everything else to get by, all while pushing a solid pace. Alvey gets hit way, way too much, and I think that will cost him a strenuous but clear decision here. Andrews by decision is the pick, but it would not surprise me if he landed a big punch and cracked Alvey’s granite chin.

FLYWEIGHTS

Richie Vaculik (10-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. Louis Smolka (7-1, 1-1 UFC): Hawaiian Smolka steps in on less than two weeks’ notice to take on Australia’s Vaculik. The Australian can do a little bit of everything: He is a decent striker, shoots a nice double, scrambles well and generally focuses his energy on working his consistent, damaging top game for an eventual transition to the back and subsequent rear-naked choke. Smolka is a high-energy, high-output fighter in every phase, with an active jab at range and a constant stream of submission attempts on the ground, but his wrestling is seriously deficient. This is a tough fight to call, but I lean toward Smolka by decision on the basis of his output and ability to wear down Vaculik.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Vik Grujic (7-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Chris Clements (11-5, 1-1 UFC): This should be a decent matchup between a pair of fringe welterweights. Grujic throws solid punching combinations and has a little pop in his hands, but he is glacially slow and lacks much in the way of wrestling skills or slick grappling chops. Clements is an unorthodox kickboxer who strings together excellent punch-kick combinations and spices up things with the occasional spinning technique; that is essentially it. I expect this fight to take place on the feet, and Clements should have substantial advantages in striking diversity, volume and speed. Clements by decision is the pick.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Luke Zachrich (14-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Dan Kelly (7-0, 0-0 UFC): Zachrich is a rangy Ohioan with a propensity for throwing clean punching combinations at a quick pace. His head movement and defense tend to come and go, but when he is on, Zachrich is difficult to hit, takes clean angles and throws punches in bunches. Kelly is an Olympic judoka: He excels in the clinch, is still a plus athlete despite his advancing age at 36 and can work solid top control. My pick here is Zachrich; I think he can keep Kelly at range with his long jab-cross and angles and take a decision.

BANTAMWEIGHTS

Jumabieke Tuerxun (14-2, 0-2 UFC) vs. Marcus Brimage (6-3, 3-2 UFC): Brimage makes his second appearance at bantamweight after dropping a contentious split decision to Russell Doane at UFC 175 for his second consecutive loss, while China’s Tuerxun attempts to right the ship after losing his first two fights in the UFC. Brimage is short, but his long limbs, plus explosiveness and use of rangy, powerful kicks and straight punches minimizes his height disadvantage. Tuerxun, a solid wrestler, is hittable but pushes a quick pace and throws nice combinations at range. I think Brimage should be able to keep it standing, and while he has struggled with volume strikers in the past, his low kicks and defensive wrestling should be the difference in a decision victory.

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