Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Pettis vs. Moreno’

Middleweights

Sam Alvey (30-9) vs. Rashad Evans (19-6-1)

THE MATCHUP: Evans is back after a competitive loss to Daniel Kelly in his March 4 middleweight debut. Injuries have haunted Evans throughout his career, but now he makes a five-month turnaround, his quickest since 2013. Though once lauded by MMA fans for his boxing ability, Evans was never a technician or strategist so much as he was a superb wrestler and a phenomenal athlete. He relied heavily on his physical abilities: his speed, the shotgun power in his punches and great timing. As the years went by, however, these abilities began to fade. In his last fight, at 37 years old, Evans was noticeably slower, both offensively and defensively, and had trouble timing his opponent; it would not have been so bad if the opponent were not 39 year-old Kelly, who outstruck Evans 74 to 53 and is a ponderous striker despite his surprising success.

Nonetheless, Evans showed signs of improvement for the first time in years. His old habit of freezing in front of the opponent after attacking still showed up in spots, but Evans avoided many of Kelly’s awkward counters by using upper-body movement. This upper-body movement also enabled Evans -- who seems to be losing a bit of agility, at this point -- to probe his opponent’s defenses and draw out his strikes, all while protecting his fragile chin in punching range. As a result, Evans was able to turn up the volume against Kelly, especially in the third round, where he began to grow comfortable. He landed more significant strikes than he has in five years and eight fights; and though Evans’ blast doubles are difficult without his youthful pep, he did manage to stuff every one of Kelly’s eight takedown attempts. The fight ended up being a split decision loss but one in which the new middleweight Evans showed some promising signs.

In comparison, however, it is hard not to view Alvey’s recent record in a better light. True, he has been fighting at middleweight all this time and has lost to men like Thales Leites and Elias Theodorou, not giants like Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader. Still, he has been winning, and Evans’ losses at light heavyweight were not just bad; they were utterly one-sided. Bader took Evans to school on the feet, and Teixeira put him away in less than two minutes. That close fight with Kelly is something, but let us use a touch of MMA math. Evans, who was once known for his knockout punch, lost a split decision -- it was a fair one, too -- to Kelly. When Alvey fought Kelly in 2015, he knocked him out in 49 seconds.

Alvey has his problems. He needs an opponent to come after him, struggles to lead the dance and does not put together his punches very well. He is also not a great athlete, nor incredibly strong in the tie-ups. He has power, however, and accuracy. He knows how to time and place a solid punch, and he has even shown improvements in his weak areas recently. Kick defense is still an issue, but Evans has never used his powerful kicks as much as he should. If Evans can throw the same number of strikes he threw in his last fight and keep Alvey guessing with a few takedowns, then he could win this fight and regain some respect as a tough, crafty vet. Even against the famously low-output Alvey, however, Evans is not easy to trust. According to FightMetric, Evans averages 2.19 significant strikes landed per minute; Alvey lands 3.32.

THE ODDS: Alvey (-135), Evans (+105)

THE PICK: In fairness, Evans’ strike output is lower because he spends more time wrestling than Alvey does. Alvey has never shot for a takedown in the UFC, and any wrestling and grappling he does is usually defensive in nature. Evans, by comparison, scores 3.04 takedowns per fight on average. Like his punches, however, these blast doubles rely heavily on the youthful athleticism that Evans seems to have lost. Meanwhile, Alvey’s takedown defense stands at an impressive 85 percent. Evans may have learned a few lessons during these last few years, but his chin has not improved with time and Alvey can do a lot more damage than Kelly. The pick is Alvey by second-round TKO.

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