Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio’

Light Heavyweights

Khalil Rountree (5-2) vs. Paul Craig (9-1)

THE MATCHUP: This should be an interesting contest and one which will determine which of these young fighters will climb the confused light heavyweight rankings.

Rountree’s skill set is well-known at this point. He is a powerhouse who uses long left hands and crushing round kicks to smash his way through his opponent’s defenses. Rountree is dangerous, but he relies too much on athletic ability. In past fights, he has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at his foe in the first round, only to fade down the stretch. He also lacks much in the way of a technical striking game. Rountree is accurate but tends to throw single strikes without much set-up. When he does utilize combinations, they tend to be wild and reckless. Fortunately, Rountree’s last performance, though brief, did reveal some new layers being added to his game. Specifically, Rountree used smart footwork and a strong overhook to shut down a takedown attempt from Daniel Jolly before landing a vicious knee in transition to finish the fight. If that takedown defense holds up in this fight, Rountree’s chances of victory will skyrocket.

Craig has historically been a much more well-rounded fighter. He is a capable striker with a snappy jab and a stiff right cross. Though his clinch wrestling needs work, he knows how to land short punches in the tie-ups. Craig does have a bad habit of throwing naked kicks from mid-range, and he rarely moves his head as he attacks. This makes him vulnerable to counterpunches, and that risk was realized in his fight with Tyson Pedro, who knocked him down with a straight right counter as Craig was throwing a kick.

However, striking will not be Craig’s surest path to victory here, at least not until Rountree starts to slow down. As Rountree continues to improve, he will likely become more comfortable in the later rounds. Thus, grappling will be the ace up Craig’s sleeve. Rountree has struggled to deal with technical submission artists, and with eight of his nine wins coming via submission, Craig is obviously a venomous grappler. While his tactics are sometimes risky, he demonstrates an excellent understanding of scrambles. Nothing exemplifies this better than Craig’s bold choice to pull guard against Luis Henrique da Silva -- a choice which quickly led to the submission win. As noted above, Craig’s wrestling is imperfect, but he has shown some well-timed level changes in the past and a selection of tricky throws from the clinch.

THE ODDS: Rountree (-210), Craig (+175)

THE PICK: It is always difficult to predict fights between young fighters, especially when those fighters are promising athletes, likely to make rapid improvements from one fight to the next. If the 40 seconds he spent in the cage with Jolly are any indication, Rountree is such a fighter. He could enter the Octagon with newfound confidence in his wrestling and grappling ability, along with the composure necessary to win a protracted battle against a durable opponent. Past results are not encouraging, however. Rountree was taken down six times by Andrew Sanchez and twice by Pedro. While these numbers show that Rountree is able to return to his feet, forcing the opponent to shoot several times over the course of a round, they also paint the picture of a fighter with inconsistent wrestling and grappling skills. Until those skills improve dramatically, Rountree will be forced to explode in order to return to his feet, which means he will be more likely to gas. Craig is too hittable to be any kind of solid favorite, but his submission skills are an invaluable asset against a fighter who has consistently struggled on the ground. Craig by second-round submission is the pick.

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