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FIGHT ODDS

Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mendes vs. Lamas’

Patrick WymanApr 02, 2015
Clay Guida will be make his 21st appearance inside the Octagon. | Photo: Mike Fridley/Sherdog.com


Photo: Gleidson Venga/Sherdog.com

Peralta poses problems.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Clay Guida (31-15, 11-9 UFC) vs. Robbie Peralta (18-5, 4-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Fan favorite Guida attempts to right the ship against the brick-fisted Peralta. Once on the cusp of a title shot, Guida has now dropped four of his last six, though it should be noted that those losses all came against top-notch opposition. For his part, Peralta could also use a win, as Thiago Tavares snapped his two-fight winning streak in his last outing.

Guida’s game is defined by his constant expenditure of energy, though he has settled down a bit in his last few outings. He remains an aggressive wrestle-grappler at heart and does his best work chain wrestling against the fence or grinding away with knees and working slams from the rear waist lock. He is not exactly a finisher from top position, but he can eat up large chunks of time with his stifling control in guard or half guard. The real danger in grappling with Guida lies in the scrambles, where he can utilize his guillotines and quick back takes. Striking is not Guida’s best facet, but he is a surprisingly good counterpuncher and packs decent power in his hands. Despite his constant movement, Guida does not actually throw much volume at range, and he is quite hittable in exchanges. Age might also be taking a toll on his cardio and durability, but he remains tough, aggressive and crafty.

Peralta is essentially a sprawl-and-brawler -- and a fairly good one. He does his best work moving forward with blitzing combinations of looping punches and packs quite a bit of pop when exchanging in the pocket. Jabs and low kicks add to his offensive output between bursts of aggression. Peralta’s defensive wrestling is reasonably solid and he is good at stuffing shots in open space, but he struggles to stay on his feet against good chain wrestlers. Grappling is not Peralta’s strongest suit, especially from his back.

BETTING ODDS: Guida (-250), Peralta (+210)

THE PICK: This is an interesting fight. The basic dynamic is clear: Guida will want this on the ground or in the clinch, while Peralta will want to strike at range. Given Peralta’s difficulty in stuffing the better wrestlers he has faced, Guida seems likely to win that particular battle. Once on the ground, Guida should have a massive edge. A submission is a possibility, but the pick is Guida by decision.

Next Fight » Dustin Poirier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira