Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Holm vs. Correia’

Lightweights

Takanori Gomi (35-12) vs. Jon Tuck (9-4): Three years ago, Gomi was knocked out for the first time. Fighting just once a year since, his once-granite chin seems to have permanently cracked, and his famous explosiveness vanished, as well. Gomi is still a wily opponent, thanks mostly to his courage and tenacity, but as a fighter whose style relied on youth itself, he has struggled to find success as his 40th birthday draws ever nearer. Meanwhile, Tuck lacks the determined grappling style of a Jim Miller or the reckless aggression of a Joe Lauzon. He has power in both punches and kicks, along with surprising, dynamic movements. Tuck’s talents, however, only appear in glimpses. He tends to find success within the first few minutes and then, whether through poor conditioning or some mental malfunction, Tuck simply stops throwing. He begins following his opponent, hesitating as he tries to counter rather than using his natural speed to lead. Tuck is obviously still a dangerous opponent, but if Gomi can survive the first few minutes, there is a chance that he, ever dogged, could break down the Guam native via attrition. That outcome still feels a little unlikely to me. Tuck’s speed, accuracy and power will catch Gomi off-guard early; and his smooth offensive grappling will be there to keep the pressure on if Gomi survives the first big hit. The pick is Tuck by first-round submission.

Heavyweights

Walt Harris (9-5) vs. Cyril Asker (8-2): Harris has been alternating wins and losses for the last two years, but he continues to improve from fight to fight. With all nine of Harris’ wins having come via knockout, it is obvious that he has power, but in a division of heavy hitters, it is his speed that stands out. Harris is among the best athletes at heavyweight, and in his last three fights, he has leaned heavily on that innate advantage. He floats around the ring, using bouncy footwork to keep his opponents at a distance; and when they start following or try to catch him with wide, obvious strikes, he explodes. Suddenly Harris’ lateral movement turns into pure forward momentum. Asker is no scrub -- he proved that in an impressive win over Dmitry Smoliakov earlier this year -- but he will be badly outmatched athletically. Without huge power, Asker will have a hard time testing Harris’ somewhat shaky chin, which means he will likely be outmaneuvered, outpaced and outpunched. The pick is Harris by first-round knockout.

Featherweights

Alex Caceres (12-10) vs. Rolando Dy (8-4): Dy has produced some exciting performances lately under the Pacific Xtreme Combat banner. Previously known for an all-out, reckless approach, Dy’s recent fights have exhibited a much calmer, more calculated fighter. Dy looks more patient, and because of his great speed and creativity, the long spaces between his attacks can actually make them all much harder to predict. For all that it has helped him, however, Dy’s slower pace does have its disadvantages. Throwing more punches correlates to landing more punches, especially when first-round speed starts to fade. Caceres is known for inconsistency, and statistically, his fights have been all over the map. More often than not, he tends toward a high-output approach. Dy is better leading than he is on the counter, so Caceres should be able to edge the momentum his way simply by throwing at a decent clip. If he does so too recklessly, Dy certainly will have the opportunity to knock him out, as he did to undefeated prospect Koyomi Matsushima in March 2016. Worryingly, that knockout was strikingly similar to the one Caceres suffered in his 2015 bout with Francisco Rivera. If Caceres does what he did to Cole Miller, relying on his kicks to rack up damage from the safety of long range, then Dy may rapidly fall behind on points. The pick is Caceres by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Justin Scoggins (11-3) vs. Yuta Sasaki (19-4-2): After winding up on the wrong side of a comeback against bantamweight Pedro Munhoz, Scoggins is back among the flyweights; and provided the cut is not starting to get unmanageably hard for him, he is poised to reassert himself as a contender in the anemic division. In “Ulka” Sasaki, however, Scoggins has an unusual test. Standing 5-foot-10, Sasaki is taller than every other flyweight on the roster and all but one of the bantamweights, and he made great use of that frame when he surprised title challenger Wilson Reis with salvos of ones and twos, every other one followed by a jeer and a stuck-out tongue. Sasaki is equally tenacious on the ground, particularly when it comes to finding ways to his opponent’s back, where he has finished nine times with the rear-naked choke. With his esoteric mixing of full-contact karate and freestyle wrestling, Scoggins is used to controlling the distance, but Sasaki’s five-inch reach difference may give him some pause. The deciding factor in this fight may well be Scoggins’ wrestling, especially considering the relative ease with which Reis put Sasaki on his back. Of course, the difference between Reis’ wrestling and that of Scoggins lies in the set-up: Reis used the threat of his strikes to draw Sasaki out of position, whereas Scoggins really prefers reactive takedowns, which will be hard to find if Sasaki stays behind the full length of his arms. Even so, Scoggins’ speed will be a constant threat to Sasaki, and his higher output should allow him to stay competitive even if the Japanese standout manages to draw him into an ugly fight with stinging pot-shots and taunts. More likely, Scoggins will be able to use his slick defense and distance management to keep Sasaki where he needs him, whether that is out at range or on his back. Soggins by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Jingliang Li (12-4) vs. Frank Camacho (20-4): Li flies under the radar, but he is consistently one of the most entertaining fighters in the welterweight division. You can understand my excitement when it was announced that “The Leech” would be taking on wildman Camacho, whose brawling style and 15 knockouts suggest a serious action fight. Aside from power, there are two things a slugger needs to be consistently successful: a granite chin and some modicum of craft. Camacho has the first, and while “The Crank” is nobody’s idea of a scientific boxer, he knows how to find his range and place his punches. However, when somebody hits him, he gets really into the idea of hitting them back. One of the most fundamentally sound punchers in the division, Li will certainly hit Camacho. The question here is whether he can survive what Camacho throws back at him. Interestingly, Camacho beat the last man to defeat Li -- Keito Nakamura, a crafty veteran in his own right. In short, Camacho may be small, but he is not to be overlooked; and Li can be hit, especially early, before he gets his opponent’s timing. Camacho might gather hope from Li’s last fight in which he was nearly knocked out by Bobby Nash, but he would do well to remember how Li stayed composed, weathered the storm and knocked out Nash. Considering the fact that Camacho does not enjoy the advantage of Nash’s size, he may have an even harder time of putting away Li in time to stop the comeback. The pick is Li by second-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Kwan Ho Kwak (9-1) vs. Russell Doane (14-7): Doane has not won a fight in nearly two years -- a shame since he is a talented fighter. It comes as a relief that Doane is being granted at least one more shot in the UFC, and his matchup with South Korean prospect Kwak looks like a corker. A tricky and cerebral kickboxer, Kwak is not the hardest puncher in the world, but he is so exceptionally fast, precise and creative that he manages to hurt every man he fights. His wrestling has been a little suspect in the past, but he is a plus athlete and a surprisingly effective scrambler. Of the two, Doane is by far the more willing grappler, though often to his detriment, as he too has struggled with some powerful wrestlers. He will likely struggle to time Kwak on a takedown, so expect a bit of a grind if Doane decides he really wants to wrestle. Stylistically, these two are made for one another: Doane tends to start fast and lose focus down the stretch, whereas Kwak spends the first few minutes of every fight studying his opponent while preparing traps which he can spring later in the fight. Doane is the harder hitter, Kwak a little quicker to the punch. Physically, they are virtually identical. In conclusion, this one should be quite interesting. The pick is Kwak by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Naoki Inoue (10-0) vs. Carls John de Tomas (8-0): At 19 years old, Inoue is one of the most promising flyweights the UFC has signed in some time. At 5-foot-8, he will be the third-tallest flyweight on the roster, and he knows how to make use of that frame. Inoue is an upright striker whose style recalls both classic British boxing and modern muay Thai. He uses a lancing jab at range, but he is most dangerous in tight, where his height allows him to control posture and land punishing knees and uppercuts in and around the clinch. Interestingly, Inoue faces a fighter in his debut who not only mirrors his undefeated record, but at 5-foot-7 more or less matches his unusual height. Tomas reminds me -- and this might sound strange -- of Jose Aldo. His kicks lack Aldo’s legendary power and there is no comparison in the realm of defense, but Tomas’ approach is familiar. He likes to chip away with quick pot shots from long range, keep the pace slow and throw quick counters with very bad intentions whenever his opponent gets brave. Perhaps Tomas is better compared to Aldo’s teammate, Hacran Dias, lacking the elite dynamism but also willing to tie up, take down and grind to steal long portions of a bout. This latter characteristic may mean trouble for Inoue, who can be taken down and is usually willing to grapple. The Japanese fighter can hold his own on the ground, however, having won seven bouts via submission, and his aggression on the feet will give him the edge. Inoue has faced and beaten the better competition, and he should be able to outpace Tomas’ patient style. The pick is Inoue by unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Ji Yeon Kim (6-0-2) vs. Lucie Pudilova (6-2): Pudilova’s UFC debut did not go as she intended, resulting in her second loss to Sweden’s Lina Lansberg. Despite the identical result, however, this was no mere repeat. Pudilova showed off a shiny new intercepting jab and much improved footwork. Lansberg smothered Pudilova in their first fight, but this time around, just two and a half years later, Pudilova fed her a steady diet of crisp jabs, landing 99 significant strikes at a rate that increased with each passing round. At the end of the fight, Lansberg, with one eye completely swollen shut, told the fans that Pudilova had deserved the win. Where Lansberg constantly pursued the clinch, UFC debutante Kim will stop a little sooner before throwing. Though her boxing is instinctive at best and downright amateur at worst, Kim packs serious power in her hands and is not afraid to throw them. The three submissions on her ledger would suggest that Kim fights this way in order to open up the takedown, but in the fights themselves, she seems to just follow the action where it goes. Pudilova is still quite hittable, but so is Kim; and it is Pudilova who possesses the quick, accurate jab. Provided she can stop the occasional head-and-arm throw from Kim, Pudilova should be able to pick up momentum as the fight wears by simply hanging tough and sticking to the basics. The pick is Pudilova by unanimous decision.

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