Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Henderson 3’

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Lightweights

Gilbert Burns (10-0) vs Rashid Magomedov (18-1)

THE MATCHUP: Burns is one of the most talented submission grapplers to enter the UFC in years. The 29-year-old MMA novice is a second-degree black belt under Rafael “Fofitio” Barros. Airtight is probably the best word to describe his ground game, as he never seems to leave more space than necessary, sticking to his opponent like glue even in the midst of wild scrambles. In fact, there does not seem to be such a thing as a “wild scramble” in any of Burns’ fights, because the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace always stays one step ahead, planning his next attack or transition well before the opponent can make any progress toward escaping. He even uses calculated pressure to bait his opponent into traps.

Burns’ training with the Blackzilians under Henri Hooft has turned him into a competent striker, but his inexperience shows whenever he is confronted with a nuanced, layered striking attack. Quite unlike his well-developed grappling, Burns’ striking is deceptively shallow. Sharp kicks and straight punches tend to fade away once Burns starts running into counters, and, as we saw in his fight with Alex Oliveira, his defense is limited to a nervous high guard that a skilled striker should have no problem getting around. Of course, Burns has less than four years of MMA under his belt, so he may be capable of massive improvements from one fight to the next.

Magomedov’s striking is simply put a pleasure to watch. He manages distance exceptionally well, using small steps and quick, accurate strikes to keep his opponents right on the end of his effective range. He is extremely effective with his left side, often spending whole minutes of every round placing jabs and smooth counter left hooks. His left kick is quick and difficult to time -- not unlike the switch-less kick of former Bellator MMA champion Emanuel Newton but with a far more conventional boxing game to back it up. Magomedov is one of the few fighters in MMA to regularly employ counter kicks; thanks to his exceptional sense of distance, he is able to slide back deftly as his opponent punches, taking his head just out of range while snapping his shin into the exposed body.

Magomedov’s grappling is mostly defensive, designed to shuck off takedown attempts and return to his long striking range. His submissions exist mostly as a tool to deter an opponent’s aggression on the ground, though if given the opportunity Magomedov will keep top position, striking from his opponent’s open guard and using Kazushi Sakuraba-esque leg kicks to score points and eat up time. Magomedov has a knack for finding strikes in transition, such as the brutal high kick with which he nearly knocked out Tony Martin just after escaping the much larger man’s clinch.

THE ODDS: Magomedov (-160), Burns (+140)

THE PICK: There is an irony to Burns. Whereas his fellow Blackzilians are mostly dangerous strikers who lack composure on the ground, Burns is a submission specialist who just never seems confident on the feet. Against Magomedov, one of the smoothest, most technical strikers in a division chock full of such fighters, Burns will need to get to keep the fight on the ground as much as possible to win; and Magomedov’s 92 percent takedown defense rate makes that a tall order indeed. While Magomedov is no knockout artist, it is rare that he does not hurt an opponent at least once per fight, which should be more than enough to put doubt in the inexperienced mind of Burns. The pick is Magomedov by unanimous decision.

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