Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Arlovski vs. Barnett’

Welterweights

Jessin Ayari (15-3) vs. Jim Wallhead (29-9): Two staples of the European MMA scene make their Octagon debuts in this preliminary showdown. Ayari’s style bears some resemblance to that of Stephen Thompson but with a few notable differences. Ayari’s boxing is nowhere near as crisp, both in offensive and defensive terms. He is prone to reaching with long, single punches and tends to defend himself by leaning straight back, straightening his legs and lifting his chin into the air. That seems a recipe for a brutal knockout -- Ayari has received two over the course of his career -- and Wallhead just might be the man to deliver it. “Judo Jim” is a stout defensive grappler with heavy hands. His record boasts as many knockouts as it does submissions, and he is typically keen to engage on the feet. If Ayari can survive the first round, he stands a good chance of outpointing Wallhead; Ayari does tend to pick up the pace as the fight goes on. All the while, however, he will have to keep his chin out of Wallhead’s reach, and Wallhead has more than his fair share of experience, with plenty of results. The pick here is Wallhead by first-round KO.

Welterweights

Peter Sobotta (15-5-1) vs. Nicolas Dalby (14-1-1): In April, Dalby faced a rude awakening in the form of Zak Cummings. The power-punching southpaw countered Dalby’s relatively powerless strikes and easily stuffed the reactive takedowns that have so frequently been an ace up the Dane’s sleeve. With top-notch submission grappling and steadily improving striking, Sobotta represents a slightly easier version of the same test. Sobotta’s takedown defense is not as stout as that of Cummings, but his grappling finesse, which has earned him an impressive 15 submission wins, will play a similar role in de-incentivizing the takedown. Sobotta is also a capable striker, though he relies more on kicks at long range, as opposed to Cummings’ tricky counterpunching. Dalby’s usual brand of high-volume kickboxing should carry him through against Sobotta, but the hope is that he has taken stock of his recent performances and made some adjustments. If Dalby can turn up the pressure and throw hand combinations in mid-range, he will be able to poke holes in Sobotta’s lackluster defense and take him out of his kickboxing comfort zone. The pick is Dalby by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Taylor Lapilus (10-2) vs. Leandro Issa (13-5): We saw a grappler stop a striker in the UFC on Fox 21 main event; Issa will attempt to replicate the feat against Lapilus. A French kickboxer, Lapilus is part of the Joanna Jedrzejczyk school of counter-wrestling, possessing two potent layers of takedown defense. First, he uses movement and distance control to deny his opponent the range for effective takedowns. Second, he strikes aggressively in the clinch, actively punishing his opponent for every failed shot. Issa averages about eight takedown attempts per fight, and he will have extra incentive to pursue them versus Lapilus, whose only loss in the UFC came when he was stuck grappling from his back. Issa, on the other hand, is a highly decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. In chasing the takedown, however, Issa will be forced to contend with Lapilus’ tricky footwork and, should he manage to close the gap, a formidable array of elbows and knees in the clinch. For all of his submission savvy, Issa cannot compete with Lapilus on the feet, especially as the clinch fighting starts to take its toll. The pick is Lapilus by third-round TKO.

Heavyweights

Jarjis Danho (6-1) vs. Christian Colombo (8-1): There is little recent footage of Colombo available. What there is suggests that he is an upright, stiff kickboxer with good power but poor takedown defense. That makes him an interesting test for Danho, who failed to impress in his UFC debut. Though Danho’s power and wrestling made him a promising prospect, he essentially refused to continue after being unintentionally fouled by Daniel Omielanczuk -- not a good look for any prospect. Still, Danho’s style is a more reliable one for heavyweight MMA. Powerful combinations and clinch work are his fortes. Colombo’s best chance in this fight is to merely survive the first two rounds and look to put away Danho late -- the Syrian puncher has been known to gas -- but the more likely result is that Danho knocks out the ever-hittable Colombo early. The pick is Danho by first-round KO.

Middleweights

Scott Askham (14-2) vs. Jack Hermansson (13-2): Hermansson is an odd fighter. His style is a little like that of Krysztof Jotko, the last man to beat Askham, but mixed with a bit of Dominick Cruz and a bit of Carlos Condit. Switching from orthodox to southpaw, Hermansson flits back and forth in front of his opponent, flicking jabs from both stances and creating openings for his awkward counters. Like Askham, Hermansson does not seem to hit very hard but owns a considerable number of knockouts. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Hermansson is actually a more consistent fighter from range than Askham, who is much better fighting tall than he is fighting long. In mid-range, Askham’s uppercuts and front kicks are deadly; at distance, he is prone to lunging and loading up on power strikes. Askham’s other major drawbacks are connected: He has been fairly easy to take down thus far in the UFC, and he is willing to play guard once his back hits the canvas. Hermansson is a better reactive wrestler than he is an aggressive takedown artist, but he is dangerous and flexible on the ground, should the fight go there, with submission wins over Karlos Vemola and Norman Paraisy. Askham has a knack for sudden knockouts and will likely win the first round, but the pick is Hermansson by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Rustam Khabilov (19-3) vs. Leandro Silva (19-3-1): Khabilov started 3-0 in the UFC, but a pair of losses to Benson Henderson and Adriano Martins halted his climb through the ranks. Now back on a winning streak, the Dagestani suplex artist looks to overcome Silva. The enigmatic Silva has looked to be on the cusp of a breakthrough more than once in his UFC career, polishing his combination striking bit by bit. No matter how crisp his kickboxing becomes, however, Silva has yet to rid himself of his worst habit: passivity. The Brazilian is prone to long bouts of inactivity in every fight. For that reason, he possesses only one knockout win, despite an athletic build and clean striking technique. Khabilov has been prone to the same fault, but his one-and-done boxing is bolstered by a fearsome takedown game. Whenever Khabilov closes the distance, he looks to take his opponent’s back and send him tumbling through the air to land on his head. This is not an unwinnable fight for Silva, but unless he really presses the action and outscores Khabilov on the feet, he will lose every round in which Khabilov manages to get him down. The pick is Khabilov by unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Ashlee Evans-Smith (4-1) vs. Veronica Macedo (5-0): Macedo has all the makings of a great bantamweight contender. The only real problem is that, at 5-foot-3, she is among the shortest fighters in the division. Evans-Smith, on the other hand, is among the tallest and will enjoy a five-inch height advantage. Fortunately for Macedo, she is by far the superior striker in this matchup. She is an agile out-fighter with a fondness for punch-kick combinations and spinning attacks. The spins could be risky, as Evans-Smith is a capable wrestler with dangerous ground-and-pound, and her size advantage will come in handy on the floor. Still, Evans-Smith is not much of a submission threat. Even including her nine amateur bouts, she has never once submitted an opponent but has been submitted four times herself. Macedo is fairly easy to take down, but she has a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and the active bottom game to back it up. Evans-Smith has the edge in experience and size, but Macedo’s skill set should carry her to victory. The pick is Macedo by third-round submission.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.