Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Almeida vs. Garbrandt’

Welterweights

Jorge Masvidal (29-10) vs Lorenz Larkin (16-5)

THE MATCHUP: Former middleweight and former lightweight, two newly christened welterweight combatants meet

Masvidal will have a sizeable edge in mid-range exchanges. He is dangerous both in the pocket and in the clinch, and his transitions between the two are excellent. Given a moment of time or a few inches of separation and Masvidal will happily unload with short punches, elbows, and even kicks as the space expands. This ability to pounce on sudden openings seems to have improved somewhat since Masvidal’s return to welterweight, too. No longer draining his body to make 155, “Gamebred” is less concerned with exhausting his gas tank, freeing him up to throw more volume with harsher intent.

Still, some of Masvidal’s hesitance remains, and probably always will. A far-traveled journeyman (and an elite one, at that), Masvidal seems to have developed a style centered on survival rather than dominance. Given ten rounds with which to work Masvidal likely would have bested most of his 39 opponents (except the three that finished him), but modern MMA doesn’t work that way. Seven of Masvidal’s 23 career decisions were either split or majority -- that’s a lot of demonstrably close fights, and pretty clear evidence of his reluctance to set himself apart when it matters.

Larkin has not been terribly consistent in recent years either but his performances, like many of Masvidal’s, are more promising than the results. Larkin lost a split decision to top prospect Albert Tumenov, but knocked out two dangerous veterans in Santiago Ponzinibbio and John Howard before that. Larkin is extremely quick, and he seems to have retained that speed advantage despite going down in weight. He possesses an eclectic array of jumping and spinning kicks, and some clean punches and elbows as well.

How well Larkin employs these tools, however, often depends on the opponent. Given space to work, he is deadly. Trapped against the fence or wrapped up in the clinch, his strengths are largely nullified. Larkin does not have the footwork to outmaneuver a smart ring cutter, and he is not at all comfortable exchanging punches in the pocket, though he will throw back with power even as he flinches.

Larkin does seem to have gained some confidence since changing divisions, likely because his opponents are no longer so easily able to outmuscle him. He is a very sound defensive wrestler, though he tends to allow himself to be drawn into clinch fighting when he should really be creating space and returning to his optimal range. Masvidal, however, is a better wrestler than most. Grappling in general is an underrated strength for “Gamebred.” By mixing in takedowns and top control, Masvidal creates opportunities for well-timed streaks in short transitions and on clinch breaks. Though Masvidal is not known as a submission specialist, he is very capable of snatching an opportunistic choke, as when he tapped out the virtuosic Michael Chiesa in July of 2013.

THE ODDS: Larkin (-125), Masvidal (+105)

THE PICK: A former light heavyweight-cum-middleweight-cum-welterweight, Larkin would seem to have a dramatic size advantage over career lightweight Masvidal -- but “Gamebred” is the same height and owns a two-inch reach advantage. Larkin is undoubtedly the faster and more powerful fighter, but Masvidal’s experience and well-rounded skillset will allow him to score takedowns and have his way in close-range exchanges, while Larkin will have the difficult task of keeping his opponent at bay for three rounds straight. The pick is Masvidal by unanimous decision.

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